Mike Fulwood

Senior Research Fellow

Mike Fulwood joined the OIES in October 2017.  Mike has over 35 years of experience in the gas industry.  Before joining the OIES, Mike worked as a consultant, with Energy Markets between 1997 and 2008 and then with Nexant as Director, Global Gas & LNG.    Before working as consultant, Mike worked for British Gas from 1979, latterly as a Director at British Gas Transco, in charge of the price control review, and prior to that President of British Gas Americas during which time he oversaw many successful acquisitions and projects including the acquisitions of Metrogas (Argentina), NGC (now Dynegy), the Bolivia – Brazil pipeline and Trinidad LNG project.

While working as a consultant Mike undertook a wide range of projects in all areas of the gas chain, covering regulatory matters, gas pricing and tariffs, gas sales and transportation contracts, market studies and price forecasting, as well as helping develop Nexant’s World Gas Model.  Mike is currently Chairman of the International Gas Union’s Gas Pricing Group, which undertakes the Wholesale Gas Price Survey.  He also speaks widely at gas conferences all over the world, particularly on gas markets, gas trading matters and gas pricing.

Contact

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Since the birth of the LNG industry, Asia has been the key market, providing high value, reliable demand. The 3 foundation markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been joined more recently by China and India to form the “big 5” which is often the focus for much analysis and comment. However, it would be wrong to ignore the smaller, emerging Asian LNG markets. By considering the 10 most significant emerging Asian markets, this report demonstrates that when combined, they have potential LNG demand over the next 2 decades as the combination of India and China. Like all demand forecasts, whether that potential is achievable is, however, depends on overcoming some significant challenges, as discussed in the report.

In addition, these smaller countries offer a diversity of analytical interest.  Malaysia and Indonesia are LNG exporters, now looking to become significant importers. Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines all see LNG as needed to supplement declining domestic gas production. Myanmar started LNG imports to address a power crisis, and Hong Kong and Singapore are largely driven by environmental and security of supply concerns.

With a chapter on each country and detailed breakdown of the forecasts generated by our World Gas Model, the document provides a useful reference of current perceptions of future prospects in those emerging LNG markets.

[post_title] => Emerging Asia LNG Demand [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => emerging-asia-lng-demand [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-09-10 12:01:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-09-10 11:01:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=40863 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 38622 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-06-16 10:44:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-06-16 09:44:28 [post_content] => Gas prices in Europe have crashed through the $2 range discussed in two previous OIES comments. The June TTF monthly price closed below $2 and, for the next few months, the forward curve suggests this will continue. The amount of gas in storage in Europe has played a crucial role in pricing movements, absorbing a lot of the excess LNG supply in 2019. With COVID-19 impacting globally on gas demand, and LNG export capacity still increasing, it looks increasingly likely that storage could be pretty much full, possibly in early August. The moment of truth will then have arrived in the global gas market. If there is still too much LNG trying to find a home, then there will need to be more supply shut in, from both LNG and pipeline gas, if prices are not to turn negative. Looking forward, the forward curve suggests a more than doubling of TTF prices in the summer of 2021 over 2020. The historic relationship, between storage utilisation and TTF prices, suggests that utilisation would need to be much lower next year than this. LNG flows into Europe would then need to be significantly curtailed, which can only occur if there is a big rebound in Asia LNG demand in the order of 20% year on year. In the absence of this, prices in Europe, and in Asia, may stay at stubbornly low levels through 2021, prompting more LNG shut-ins next year, and making it very difficult to return to the status quo ante COVID-19. [post_title] => $2 Gas in Europe (Part III): Down, Down, Deeper and Down [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => 2-gas-in-europe-part-iii-down-down-deeper-and-down [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-06-16 10:54:52 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-06-16 09:54:52 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=38622 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 35986 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-03-12 11:38:48 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-03-12 11:38:48 [post_content] => In October last year the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) published an Energy Comment which considered the possibility of $2 gas in Europe during 2020. Remarkably we now have $2 gas before the winter has ended. The month ahead index for March for TTF is $2.91 per MMBtu and for NBP was $2.88 per MMBtu.  The mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the Ukraine transit deal were key factors in reducing prices but the impact of the coronavirus on the LNG market has been the catalyst to bring forward $2 gas in Europe. With LNG export capacity continuing to grow, can this supply be absorbed by LNG import growth in Asia and how much can Europe absorb with gas in storage well above 2019 levels. A serious supply overhang is possible in Europe this summer, and if this happens, who will blink first – Russia, Norway or the LNG suppliers – and/or might prices fall so low as to encourage lignite to gas switching? [post_title] => $2 gas in Europe is here: who will blink first? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => 2-gas-in-europe-is-here-who-will-blink-first [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-12 12:01:01 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-12 12:01:01 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=35986 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 34928 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31 [post_content] => The OIES Natural Gas Quarterly aims to provide a regular insight into the thoughts of Research Fellows on topical issues as well as providing a different angle on trends in global gas pricing. In the pricing section, the Quarterly reviews the LNG Tightness measure, looks at the Russian gas export price to Europe versus the marginal cost of US LNG and also reviews prices on Gazprom’s Electronic Sales Platform (ESP). In Asia we compare the Japanese LNG import price with the LNG spot price and also look at Chinese domestic prices compared with JKM. The Quarterly also outline our views on the Key Themes for 2020, including thoughts from Mike Fulwood on LNG project FIDs and how developers may need to accelerate plans if they are not going to miss the next window of opportunity in the mid-2020s. Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples then question the availability of LNG for Europe and ask whether sufficient storage will be available to take all the possible supply. Anouk Honore then looks at a possible cause for optimism for European gas demand, highlighting key legislation that should be passed in 2020 concerning coal phase out in Germany. Continuing the European theme, Marshall Hall discusses likely further progress this year in the transformation of the Dutch gas market, while James Henderson considers the increasing diversity of Russian gas export flows via pipeline and LNG. Jack Sharples develops the theme of Russian gas exports further, suggesting that the Gazprom ESP can provide further evidence concerning the company’s export strategy in 2020. On a different, but still European, theme Anouk Honoré considers the potential impact of the new EU Green Deal and considers how it could be developed further during the year with potentially long-lasting consequences for the energy system. Martin Lambert then suggests that 2020 could be the year when we start to see more active progress in decarbonisation outside Europe, with Australia, Japan and even the US highlighted as possible sources of technology development and practical action in the decarbonisation of the gas sector. Michal Median then outlines her view on the outlook for the Chinese gas sector in 2020, suggesting that coal to gas switching could regain some momentum and that LNG could benefit as a result. Finally, Patrick Heather looks at the emergence of the JKM price marker as a benchmark for gas prices in Asia and suggests that further progress could be made this year towards it becoming the pre-eminent pricing tool in the region.   [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 8 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-8 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=34928 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 32315 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-10-22 10:29:48 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-10-22 09:29:48 [post_content] => Europe has long been regarded as the balancing market for global LNG and has performed this function extremely well in the last twelve months, with total imports of 105 bcm – a 75 per cent rise year on year. In this period spot prices collapsed averaging less than $4 in the third quarter of this year for both TTF and NBP. Europe absorbed the glut of LNG with some coal to gas switching but mainly by filling storage. Next year will see further increases in LNG supply growth with Europe expecting to absorb the growing LNG supply again. If this winter in the northern hemisphere sees normal temperatures or even a colder winter and Asian demand growth picks up then Europe may again be able to absorb the LNG. However, a warmer than average winter and continued weak Asian growth, could see much less withdrawal from European storage than usual and less room to refill in the summer of 2020. Such a scenario could result in $2 gas prices in Europe next summer. [post_title] => Could we see $2 gas in Europe in 2020? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => could-we-see-2-gas-in-europe-in-2020 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-10-22 10:29:48 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-10-22 09:29:48 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=32315 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31556 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-05-20 12:35:06 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-05-20 11:35:06 [post_content] => LNG spot prices in Asia have fallen sharply in the last 6 months as the supply coming on to the market has outstripped demand. With oil prices remaining above $70/b this has opened up a wide gap with oil linked long term contract prices. Are we seeing the beginning of a systematic decoupling of spot and contract prices as happened in Europe in 2009? In Europe this led to contract renegotiations and arbitrations with the result that oil indexed pricing has all but disappeared in the Northwest Europe market. If the decoupling in Asia is for a prolonged period, will the same pattern develop in that region, despite the slow pace of market liberalisation in the key LNG importing countries? [post_title] => Are Asian LNG Spot Prices Finally Decoupling from Oil? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => asian-lng-spot-prices-finally-decoupling-oil [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-05-20 12:35:06 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-05-20 11:35:06 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31556 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31515 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-04-12 10:13:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-04-12 09:13:12 [post_content] => The LNG business is in a period of considerable change as it moves from a structured to a traded market. The entry of new players has resulted in a more flexible value chain model, where the bilateral linkages between suppliers and buyers are no longer 'fixed'. The increase in spot purchases and short-term trading has resulted in a market that is increasingly liquid, but still not liquid enough to underpin new liquefaction plant FIDs without the support of medium/long-term contracts from high credit intermediaries. This OIES PowerPoint report discusses what LNG models could underpin the next wave of LNG liquefaction capacity, and asks if the market participants (aggregators, portfolio companies, and intermediaries) have the financial and commercial capacity to support such new models. The report concludes that for new FIDs to happen, in the absence of a fully liquid market and the lack of availability of independent LNG pricing indices, long-term contracts or equity investment/offtake structures with high credit counterparties will still be required. Steps towards a market/traded LNG market have been taken although there is still a long way to go before a fully functioning traded market, but it is just a question of when, not if, it will arrive. The market needs to see compromise between buyers and sellers on contracts and lenders need to develop funding packages that support the move towards a fully traded market. Executive Summary - New Players New Models [post_title] => New Players New Models [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => new-players-new-models [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-04-12 10:13:12 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-04-12 09:13:12 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31515 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31328 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-01-07 11:59:04 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-01-07 11:59:04 [post_content] => Gas demand in Sub-Saharan Africa has largely been based on domestic production in specific countries such as Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire. Outside South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe there is little or no coal-fired power generation for gas to compete with, as power generation is dominated by oil and hydro. This Insight considers the opportunities for gas to displace oil-fired generation in key markets and also to drive the growth in power generation as the region provides more access to electricity to its rapidly growing population. The gas is likely to come predominantly from domestic production but also by importing LNG, with many countries looking at import schemes. There are still many challenges to overcome including geopolitical issues, lack of clear regulatory frameworks, quality and reliability of electricity networks, tariffs and revenue collection and creditworthiness. Notwithstanding these issues, there may be opportunities for LNG to break into some markets, albeit not on the scale and timing of the new Asian markets. [post_title] => Opportunities for Gas in Sub-Saharan Africa [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => opportunities-gas-sub-saharan-africa [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-02-18 16:17:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-02-18 16:17:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31328 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30844 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-01-31 12:41:57 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-01-31 12:41:57 [post_content] => With energy demand in Africa forecast to grow quickly in the coming decades, the prospects of LNG imports have been talked up by many commentators, with Ghana being thought of as one of the brightest prospects. Ghana first began developing its gas market by importing pipeline gas from Nigeria, along the West African Gas Pipeline, at the end of 2008, to replace the burning of expensive light crude oil in power plants.  However, the supply of gas from Nigeria has not lived up to expectations, with Nigerian suppliers failing to deliver the contractual amounts, the pipeline being occasionally breached and non-payment by Ghana becoming a problem in 2014.  At the same time, Ghana began to develop its own gas reserves, with the start-up of associated gas from the Tullow-operated Jubilee field in 2014, followed by the TEN field in 2016.  In 2018 the start-up of the Sankofa field will add significantly to the level of domestic production. However, even with optimistic projections on the growth in electricity generation, combined with an assumption that all power plants which can burn gas will do so, there appears to be no room in the market for LNG until after 2020 at the earliest.  Additionally, there have been a number of abortive attempts to develop Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) projects, with the lack of enforceable contracts, inability to put in place the necessary infrastructure and creditworthiness all being concerns. The IEA in WEO 2017 was relatively bullish on the prospects for gas demand growth in Africa, assisted in part by the deployment of FSRUs.  However, the experience of Ghana suggests that these prospects may be over-optimistic. If the LNG glut that so many are expecting does not materialise then Ghana, like Ivory Coast, may have missed the boat in terms of accessing cheap LNG via FSRU. African gas demand growth should be centred on using locally domestic resources. This will not help to foster FIDs for African LNG projects as they won’t get any regional customers and would therefore have to compete in the other regional markets (Asia, Europe and Latin America). [post_title] => Future prospects for LNG demand in Ghana [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => future-prospects-lng-demand-ghana [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-02-09 09:43:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-02-09 09:43:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30844 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 9 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 40863 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-09-10 12:01:54 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-09-10 11:01:54 [post_content] =>

Since the birth of the LNG industry, Asia has been the key market, providing high value, reliable demand. The 3 foundation markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been joined more recently by China and India to form the “big 5” which is often the focus for much analysis and comment. However, it would be wrong to ignore the smaller, emerging Asian LNG markets. By considering the 10 most significant emerging Asian markets, this report demonstrates that when combined, they have potential LNG demand over the next 2 decades as the combination of India and China. Like all demand forecasts, whether that potential is achievable is, however, depends on overcoming some significant challenges, as discussed in the report.

In addition, these smaller countries offer a diversity of analytical interest.  Malaysia and Indonesia are LNG exporters, now looking to become significant importers. Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines all see LNG as needed to supplement declining domestic gas production. Myanmar started LNG imports to address a power crisis, and Hong Kong and Singapore are largely driven by environmental and security of supply concerns.

With a chapter on each country and detailed breakdown of the forecasts generated by our World Gas Model, the document provides a useful reference of current perceptions of future prospects in those emerging LNG markets.

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Latest Publications by Mike Fulwood

Latest research by Mike Fulwood