Europe’s Infrastructure and Supply Crisis
Low, or no, Russia pipeline flows to the EU are precipitating an infrastructure and supply crisis. The impact is not Europe wide on flows, with potentially the five most impacted countries being Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, being totally dependent on pipeline imports from Norway and connections to Belgium and the Netherlands – in turn relying on LNG and imports from the UK. For 2023, with pipe flows from Russia via Ukraine and Turkstream at current levels (80 mmcmd), this region will be short of gas even in a mild winter, and with all the new LNG import terminals in Germany. In a cold winter demand rationing would need to be imposed and storage largely emptying. Come the summer there isn’t enough supply to get even halfway towards the EU’s target of filling storage to 90% of capacity. The prospects for winter 2023/24 are looking catastrophic, whatever the weather.