Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 19
This edition of the Quarterly Gas Review focuses particularly on supply-side dynamics in Europe in recent months, including the decline in Russian pipeline supply, the rise in European LNG imports and sendout, and the record net storage injections. This supply-side analysis is complemented by an analysis of the global LNG market, from the perspective of supply available to Europe, and an analysis of European gas demand in recent months. Finally, these complementary analyses are used as the basis for the development of a scenario for the European gas market for the period December 2022 to March 2023 (‘Winter’) and April to October 2023 (‘Summer’), with the target of returning European gas storage stocks to 99 Bcm by 1 November 2023 (the same as 1 November 2022).
Looking ahead to the rest of winter, on the supply side, with European production and pipeline imports unlikely to rise significantly in the coming months, LNG imports will play a vital role. While regasification capacity will rise in Germany and Finland at the end of 2022/start of 2023, LNG supply will be strongly influence by trends in global LNG supply and LNG demand outside Europe. On the demand side, temperature-driven gas demand for space heating and the performance of non-thermal power generation assets (influencing gas demand for power generation) will significantly influence overall gas demand. As our scenario suggests, the dynamics of the coming months will have significant implications for European storage stocks – and market sentiment – for summer 2023 and winter 2023/24.
