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[post_content] => Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to strongly impact international energy markets, posing severe challenges for energy importing countries. Much of the commentary and analysis has been focused on the consequences for, and reactions of, European nations and the European Union. Despite the fact that each region has its own specific dynamics, the global nature of energy markets means that the effects of the conflict in Ukraine are felt around the world, and Asia is no exception.
Most countries in Asia are net importers of fossil energy. International prices of crude oil and LNG were already rising in the later months of 2021, but the war in Ukraine accentuated this rise. While Asian buyers have been picking up discounted cargoes of oil and coal, there have been new costs and complications as energy, food, and other supply chain flows are adapting to sanctions.
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These phenomena provide the context within which this commentary examines the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Asian energy markets, focusing on the direct exposure of Asian countries to Russian energy exports, as well as on the direct and indirect impacts of the short-term price increases.
[post_title] => Asian Energy Markets Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
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[post_content] => On 11 March 2021, the Chinese government ratified its 14th Five Year Plan and long-term targets for 2035. Since this is the first Five Year Plan (FYP) published following China’s announcement in September 2020 that it would aim to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, it was expected to be a strong indicator of China’s commitment to this pledge and a first concrete step toward it, although viewing it as a bellwether of China’s ambitions may be misguided. This comment discusses some of the key statements from the Plan regarding energy and the environment, as well as five themes that will be important to watch over the next few years.
The overarching Plan seems weak in terms of its climate ambition and heavy on self-sufficiency, but these are early days, as more details will emerge with sectoral and provincial plans in the coming months. Still, there are a number of inherent policy tensions that will plague the upcoming plan. It will be important to watch whether these are addressed (although they are unlikely to be resolved) in sectoral plans; whether or not the political framework evolves in support of a stronger climate agenda, either through stronger ministries, leading groups, or improved coordination. The development of the emissions trading scheme will also be important, although we argue that even though it is a significant step for China, its near term impact on emissions in the power sector will be limited. Finally, we argue that despite slower oil demand growth, refining additions will continue in the near term, and that even though the decarbonisation agenda may weaken gas demand in the long-term, liberalisation efforts (and potentially some coal to gas switching) will be a boon for gas demand in the near-term.
[post_title] => Key issues for China’s 14th Five Year Plan
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[post_content] => This insight discusses the latest developments in China’s gas-fired power generation, the main challenges, and the road ahead both in the context of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the recently announced 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It argues that expensive imported gas, costly turbine technology, and the lack of fully competitive electricity markets have been the main obstacles limiting the role of natural gas in China’s power sector. Nevertheless, gas-fired power capacity could see faster growth in the 14th Five-Year Plan, likely adding 40 to 50 GW of new capacity by 2025. The buildout will boost the gas fleet to 140–150 GW, up 50 per cent from current levels, suggesting gas use in the power sector could also double, reaching 75–80 bcm by 2025. The policy framework will likely become more supportive for gas in power, as the government looks to limit coal consumption—in line with its goal of peaking emissions before 2030—and the rising needs of power system flexibility driven by renewables integration. Looking further ahead, however, China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge would also mean the country needs to curb all fossil fuel consumption, including that of gas.
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Most countries in Asia are net importers of fossil energy. International prices of crude oil and LNG were already rising in the later months of 2021, but the war in Ukraine accentuated this rise. While Asian buyers have been picking up discounted cargoes of oil and coal, there have been new costs and complications as energy, food, and other supply chain flows are adapting to sanctions.
The immediate impact of these high energy prices and supply chain disruptions is seen in rising costs across many sectors – whose supply chains were barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption of grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia has had particularly severe consequences for food prices, posing serious challenges for governments and peoples. Not only could this distract from the need to address climate change, but the growing frequency of extreme weather events may accentuate existing poverty and inequality.
These phenomena provide the context within which this commentary examines the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Asian energy markets, focusing on the direct exposure of Asian countries to Russian energy exports, as well as on the direct and indirect impacts of the short-term price increases.
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14.12.20
Natural gas in China’s power sector: Challenges and the road ahead
This insight discusses the latest developments in China’s gas-fired power generation, the main challenges, and the road ahead both in the context of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the recently announced 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It argues that expensive imported gas, costly turbine technology, and the lack of fully competitive electricity markets have been […]
By:
Yan Qin
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