Yan Qin

Research Associate

Yan Qin is a lead analyst at Refinitiv and based in Norway. She has over ten years of experiences with power and carbon market analysis and quantitative modelling, covering both Europe and China. Her work mainly includes short-term trading outlook, supply-demand forecast, long-term carbon price forecast and energy policy insights, for a wide range of clients in the energy sector globally. Before joining the Point Carbon team in 2011, she has worked as power market modeller in leading energy consultancy Pöyry (former Econ Analyse) in Norway. Her market insights and analysis are frequently quoted in media, including Reuters, Financial Times, Guardian, Carbon Pulse, Montel news etc. Yan graduated from the Department of Economics at University of Oslo and Fudan university in China.

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On 11 March 2021, the Chinese government ratified its 14th Five Year Plan and long-term targets for 2035. Since this is the first Five Year Plan (FYP) published following China’s announcement in September 2020 that it would aim to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, it was expected to be a strong indicator of China’s commitment to this pledge and a first concrete step toward it, although viewing it as a bellwether of China’s ambitions may be misguided. This comment discusses some of the key statements from the Plan regarding energy and the environment, as well as five themes that will be important to watch over the next few years.

The overarching Plan seems weak in terms of its climate ambition and heavy on self-sufficiency, but these are early days, as more details will emerge with sectoral and provincial plans in the coming months. Still, there are a number of inherent policy tensions that will plague the upcoming plan. It will be important to watch whether these are addressed (although they are unlikely to be resolved) in sectoral plans; whether or not the political framework evolves in support of a stronger climate agenda, either through stronger ministries, leading groups, or improved coordination. The development of the emissions trading scheme will also be important, although we argue that even though it is a significant step for China, its near term impact on emissions in the power sector will be limited. Finally, we argue that despite slower oil demand growth, refining additions will continue in the near term, and that even though the decarbonisation agenda may weaken gas demand in the long-term, liberalisation efforts (and potentially some coal to gas switching) will be a boon for gas demand in the near-term.

[post_title] => Key issues for China’s 14th Five Year Plan [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => key-issues-for-chinas-14th-five-year-plan [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-03-16 10:45:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-03-16 10:45:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=43523 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 43264 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-12-14 13:35:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-12-14 13:35:07 [post_content] => This insight discusses the latest developments in China’s gas-fired power generation, the main challenges, and the road ahead both in the context of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the recently announced 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It argues that expensive imported gas, costly turbine technology, and the lack of fully competitive electricity markets have been the main obstacles limiting the role of natural gas in China’s power sector. Nevertheless, gas-fired power capacity could see faster growth in the 14th Five-Year Plan, likely adding 40 to 50 GW of new capacity by 2025. The buildout will boost the gas fleet to 140–150 GW, up 50 per cent from current levels, suggesting gas use in the power sector could also double, reaching 75–80 bcm by 2025. The policy framework will likely become more supportive for gas in power, as the government looks to limit coal consumption—in line with its goal of peaking emissions before 2030—and the rising needs of power system flexibility driven by renewables integration. Looking further ahead, however, China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge would also mean the country needs to curb all fossil fuel consumption, including that of gas. [post_title] => Natural gas in China’s power sector: Challenges and the road ahead [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => natural-gas-in-chinas-power-sector-challenges-and-the-road-ahead [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-12-14 13:35:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-12-14 13:35:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=43264 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 2 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 43523 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2021-03-16 10:45:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2021-03-16 10:45:56 [post_content] =>

On 11 March 2021, the Chinese government ratified its 14th Five Year Plan and long-term targets for 2035. Since this is the first Five Year Plan (FYP) published following China’s announcement in September 2020 that it would aim to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, it was expected to be a strong indicator of China’s commitment to this pledge and a first concrete step toward it, although viewing it as a bellwether of China’s ambitions may be misguided. This comment discusses some of the key statements from the Plan regarding energy and the environment, as well as five themes that will be important to watch over the next few years.

The overarching Plan seems weak in terms of its climate ambition and heavy on self-sufficiency, but these are early days, as more details will emerge with sectoral and provincial plans in the coming months. Still, there are a number of inherent policy tensions that will plague the upcoming plan. It will be important to watch whether these are addressed (although they are unlikely to be resolved) in sectoral plans; whether or not the political framework evolves in support of a stronger climate agenda, either through stronger ministries, leading groups, or improved coordination. The development of the emissions trading scheme will also be important, although we argue that even though it is a significant step for China, its near term impact on emissions in the power sector will be limited. Finally, we argue that despite slower oil demand growth, refining additions will continue in the near term, and that even though the decarbonisation agenda may weaken gas demand in the long-term, liberalisation efforts (and potentially some coal to gas switching) will be a boon for gas demand in the near-term.

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Latest Publications by Yan Qin