David Ledesma

Senior Reseach Fellow

David Ledesma is an independent gas and LNG consultant focusing on gas and LNG strategy along the value chain, including the structuring of commercial arrangements, financing, and markets for pipeline gas and LNG projects. Since joining the institute in November 2007, he has contributed chapters to several of the institute’s books, namely: Natural Gas in Asia (2008), Natural Gas in the Middle East and North Africa (2011), The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas (2012) and was Co-Editor of the institute’s recent book LNG Markets in Transition, The Great Reconfiguration (2016). He has also published a number of papers, including: ‘The Changing Relationship between NOCs and IOCs in the LNG Chain’ (July 2009); ‘East Africa Gas – Potential for Export’ (March 2013); and ‘The Future of Australian LNG Exports: Will Domestic Challenges Limit the Development of Future LNG Export Capacity?’ (September 2014). David also contributed the book chapter ‘Project Financing LNG Projects’ toThe Principles of Project Finance (Gower Publishing, 2012). David also gives numerous commercial training courses on gas and LNG in the UK and overseas, writes on gas and LNG, and presents regularly at conferences. During 30 years in the energy and utilities sector, David has worked on the development of complex integrated energy projects, negotiations at government level, and in the management of joint ventures. With Shell, he worked in Malaysia and the Netherlands, travelled extensively to Oman and Asia, and was a key member of the team that closed a major LNG project in the Middle East. He is an experienced commercial manager with hands-on experience of developing and closing commercial gas transactions as well as developing business strategy. From 2000 to 2005, as director of consulting then managing director of the Gas Strategies Group (formally EconoMatters Ltd), David worked on and managed LNG and gas consulting assignments around the world. In May 2013 David was appointed as a Non-Executive Director of Pavilion Energy, a subsidiary of the Singapore investment firm Temasek Holdings. He has a degree in economics and geography from the University of Exeter.

Areas of Expertise
Natural gas worldwide: development, trade, project structuring and trading, LNG: Industry knowledge, value chain, markets, supply and trading, Global: Regional knowledge on markets and gas supply

Contact

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                    [post_content] => Executive Summary

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Natural Gas Research Programme has recently published a paper entitled ‘The Future of Australian LNG Exports: Will domestic challenges limit the development of future LNG export capacity?’

With seven the new LNG projects under construction and due for completion in the 2014 – 2018 timeframe amounting in addition to existing facilities, Australia is expected to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest supplier of LNG by the end of the 2010s.  With its plentiful gas reserves, prior track record of LNG project execution and operation and relative proximity to the fast growing Asian LNG markets the degree of comparative advantage would seem to guarantee a benign investment environment.

However, several factors, among them competition for skilled labour within Australia, the strength of the Australian dollar and the specific logistical and environmental sensitivities of the project locations have resulted in significant cost escalations and in some cases delays to the original project schedules.  This paper also serves to convey an understanding of the much overlooked Australian gas market and, significantly the impact that the new LNG projects are already having on internal supply/demand – price dynamics and the political challenges raised.

Much energy media attention has focused on the problems faced by the current group of new Australian LNG projects. This paper comprehensively addresses the root causes but more importantly conveys the scale of the new wave of Australian LNG supply and integrates this with its impact on the domestic market which until now has been largely isolated from global energy dynamics.  The OIES Natural Gas Research Programme is committed to producing timely and insightful research on both supply and demand side developments and this paper achieves both these objectives.
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                    [post_content] => In the world of upstream oil and gas, the emergence of a major new prospective area always creates a frisson of excitement.  Once the discoveries are assessed and we move past the initial question of how the potential resource base was previously overlooked, attention focuses on the likely ultimate scale of the resource, the cost of development, the likely timing of first production, and the impact of the new supplies on regional and global gas markets.

David Ledesma’s paper on the prospects for gas in Mozambique and Tanzania captures the excitement of the confirmation of a major new hydrocarbon play and conveys the pace at which resources were mobilised and the sheer scale of the discoveries made over a very short time period.  The resources, however, are owned by two relatively poor countries with limited institutional capability and capacity. They face the challenge of making decisions on fiscal and regulatory issues which will impact their economies for several decades. Key policy issues include how to ensure that gas  is available for the domestic market in parallel with the build up of the export flows necessary for viable development and how to avoid the ‘resource curse’ of currency appreciation, which would harm other domestic industrial sectors.

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                    [post_content] => Relationships between National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs) have changed over the past twenty years as NOCs have broadened their activities to include exerting greater influence on managing their countries’ resources, the selection of which IOCs should participate in LNG projects and more involvement in the development of LNG project structures. In response, IOCs have had to re-focus in order to meet the NOCs’ new requirements. The traditional model whereby IOCs managed the development of the whole LNG chain, usually using their own human and financial resources, supported by the NOC, may still be the case for some LNG projects in the early stage of a country’s LNG development, but not for the more mature NOCs. When an NOC has gained experience in developing LNG projects, there is a drive by the NOC to have a greater involvement (economic, organisational and physical) in project development and operations, usually resulting in less IOC involvement along the LNG chain. This greater involvement means additional risk to the NOC which some government companies may not wish to take. Some NOCs have therefore been more active in making this move and others, for political reasons, have been slower.
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The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Natural Gas Research Programme has recently published a paper entitled ‘The Future of Australian LNG Exports: Will domestic challenges limit the development of future LNG export capacity?’

With seven the new LNG projects under construction and due for completion in the 2014 – 2018 timeframe amounting in addition to existing facilities, Australia is expected to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest supplier of LNG by the end of the 2010s.  With its plentiful gas reserves, prior track record of LNG project execution and operation and relative proximity to the fast growing Asian LNG markets the degree of comparative advantage would seem to guarantee a benign investment environment.

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Much energy media attention has focused on the problems faced by the current group of new Australian LNG projects. This paper comprehensively addresses the root causes but more importantly conveys the scale of the new wave of Australian LNG supply and integrates this with its impact on the domestic market which until now has been largely isolated from global energy dynamics.  The OIES Natural Gas Research Programme is committed to producing timely and insightful research on both supply and demand side developments and this paper achieves both these objectives.
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Latest Publications by David Ledesma

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • Bassam Fattouh speaking in Abu Dhabi on the key trends shaping the oil market and the implications for the GCC https://t.co/DhJjiB0czd

    March 22nd

  • New publication: Russian LNG: Progress and delay in 2017 https://t.co/YIjjMgkv0n

    March 22nd

  • B Fattouh on the main factors shaping Saudi oil policy and the Kingdom’s oil policy since 2008 in Oil Magazine - https://t.co/Hs5Qx0lZCJ

    March 21st

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