Quarterly Gas Review: Short- and Medium-Term Outlook for Gas Markets
Since our previous edition of the Quarterly Gas Review, the Russian build-up of troops around Ukraine’s border has erupted into a full-scale invasion. European gas prices, which were already high, surged. In response to the invasion, the European Commission and various European governments announced their intention to reduce dependency on Russian gas imports. In response, the Russian government passed new legislation, requiring Gazprom’s European counterparties to pay for their gas supplies in Roubles, rather than Euros. While it remained unclear whether or not the new payment procedure would be in breach of sanctions against Russia, several companies refused to follow the new procedure, and had their supplies cut off by Gazprom. At the same time, Gazprom effectively disowned its European subsidiaries (Gazprom Germania in particular). In this issue of the Quarterly Gas Review, we analyse the flow of Russian gas to Europe in this geopolitical context. In related sections, Mostefa Ouki and Mike Fulwood, respectively, analyse the geopolitics of Algerian gas supply to Europe and dynamics on the global LNG market, with particular focus on the extent to which they can offset lower flows from Russia.