Anouk Honoré

Senior Research Fellow

Anouk Honoré is a Senior Research Fellow in the Natural Gas Research Programme.
Her research at the OIES focuses on European natural gas issues with particular emphasis on the gas market fundamentals and power generation. Her main areas of expertise include building scenarios on natural gas demand and supply in 35 European countries (the 27 member countries in the European Union plus Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Norway, Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, Switzerland and Turkey).
Before joining the Institute, she worked at the International Energy Agency in Paris. Her work focused mainly on natural gas issues in the member countries, in China and in Latin America. Dr Honoré holds a PhD in Economics, a MA in Environmental and Natural Resources Economics and a LLM in International Administration (public law).
She is author of: Pricing of Pipeline Gas and LNG in Latin America and the Caribbean, with D. Ledesma in J. Stern (ed.) The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas, Oxford University Press, 2012. The Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum: Global or Regional Cartelization?, with L. El-Katiri in J. Stern (ed.) The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas, Oxford University Press, 2012.

Areas of Expertise
Natural gas issues, gas demand and power generation in the European region, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), security of gas supplies, and gas in Latin America (Argentina, Bolivia).

Contact

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                    [post_content] => In this presentation, Anouk Honoré argues that even if gas demand growth in 2015 and 2016 may not necessarily be signs of recovery, the next 5-10 years will/could be different from the longer term ‘future of gas’ debate in Europe. She analyses the reasons to believe why gas demand could stay high in this timeframe. The presentation concludes that now is the time to make the arguments of the immediate benefits of natural gas, but at the same time, there will not be ‘one scenario fits all’ and specific factors need to be considered for each country. This presentation will be followed by an Insight to be published in June 2017.
                    [post_title] => Natural gas demand in Europe in the next 5-10 years
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                    [post_content] => This paper forms part of an OIES Gas Programme research theme focusing on the most important national gas markets in Europe (and elsewhere). The rationale behind these papers is that individual markets have specific characteristics and complexities which are essential to understand in order to look at future trends. This paper follows the previous publications on the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, Brazil and Iran.

The Dutch gas market, one of Europe’s key exporters, is at a significant turning point. A much stronger than usual earth tremor in 2012 caused by the extraction of gas from Groningen prompted the government to take action and restrain production from the field to help minimize the seismicity. In 2016, gas production from the giant field was less than half the volumes produced just three years previously, with almost no flexibility to cope with seasonality of demand. Nobody seems to be paying much attention to it maybe because there have been no signs of any major threat to security of gas supply nationally and in North West Europe. However, the complete change in the Dutch gas outlook means a major fall in regional production from a European perspective and a big increase in imports from elsewhere with potential security of supply implications (volumes, capacity, prices, and/or dependence). Consideration on the safety and health of the people of Groningen has also changed public opinion about gas dramatically. The use of renewables in power generation and an increased focus on energy efficiency have become the key policy drivers but the transition towards a sustainable economy is also overwhelmed by an anti-gas sentiment. This dramatic evolution casts an important doubt over the future of gas in the country but equally importantly in Europe as a whole, particularly for those countries in the North-West of the region whose imports of Dutch L-gas and H-gas have historically been crucial elements of their supply. It is no longer ‘business as usual’ and this paper offers some food for thought on the challenges but also the prospects and expectations for the Dutch gas industry looking ahead to a 2030 horizon.

Executive Summary
                    [post_title] => The Dutch Gas Market: trials, tribulations, and trends
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                    [post_content] => South America has long been isolated from other natural gas markets, focusing instead on achieving self sufficiency and regional integration. As a consequence, it has never been at the centre of discussions in the natural gas industry until the region decided to turn to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2008 following shortages of natural gas production, tensions over price renegotiations and shortfalls of contracted deliveries. LNG imports only started in the late 2000s but reached 17.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2015. Despite relatively small volumes at the global scale, representing less than 5% of the world LNG trades, if the pace continues, the region could become an important player reducing the scale of flows to Europe, the swing market for LNG. This was the starting point of this research, which was carried out with the objective to propose an overview of the gas demand fundamentals to 2030 horizons in a comprehensive way with some highlights of individual market trends (the paper focuses on Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela). The scenarios will need to be updated as policies/prices/generation mix evolve in the future, but the main conclusion of this research is that, as of mid 2016, South America is not expected to be a major future LNG market unless there are extreme climatic conditions, which will not happen every year and will not last many years. LNG will remain necessary to supply much needed flexibility, additional volumes, security of supply and to reach new markets far from infrastructure, but there are also major uncertainties on volumes, prices, timeframe, location and even direction of the LNG flows as some importers could turn exporters at times of low demand toward the end of the timeframe.

 
                    [post_title] => South American Gas Markets and the role of LNG
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                    [post_content] => There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s. Countries in the Baltic region and south eastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination of LNG and pipeline gas from Azerbaijan. Similar measures could reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of central Europe and Turkey on Russian gas. However, Russian gas will be highly competitive with all other pipeline gas and LNG (including US LNG) supplies to Europe, and Gazprom’s market power to impact European hub prices may be considerable. Countries with strong geopolitical fears related to Russian gas dependence will need to either terminate, or not renew on expiry, their long term contracts with Gazprom.
                    [post_title] => Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas - distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics
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                    [post_content] => A report published by the Natural Gas Programme of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, concludes that European gas demand will not recover its 2010 level until about 2025. Dr Anouk Honoré has produced the most comprehensive independent study of European gas demand by country and by sector available in the public domain. The scenarios show that natural gas demand in the 35 countries of the European region falls from 594 Bcm in 2010 to 564 Bcm in 2020 and then rises to 618 Bcm in 2030. Only 24 Bcm in two decades may seem very pessimistic, but one must not forget the sharp decline that already happened in 2010-2013. Focusing on the 2013-2030 period, then 88 Bcm of additional gas consumed is expected.

Even before the financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent financial recession, European demand growth had slowed, however a product of both a maturing market, low population growth, higher gas prices (in large part due to the oil price linkage in much of its contracted imports) and the migration of manufacturing industry to other world regions. Assessing the long term prospects for European gas demand against this backdrop would be challenge enough. The additional dimensions of EU renewables and decarbonisation policy, the Large Combustion Plant Directive, the Industrial Emissions Directive, the German Energiewende and other country-specific policies and diverse national power generation mix ‘starting points’ take the challenge into ‘formidable’ territory, especially in the current uncertain post-economic crisis landscape. This paper addresses all the major ‘known unknowns’ as far as this is possible and proposes an overview of the gas demand fundamentals in Europe to 2020 and 2030 horizons. Readers will find in the appendix all the key assumptions set out in detail at a national level which, when aggregated, form the basis for the demand outlook scenario.
                    [post_title] => The Outlook for Natural Gas Demand in Europe
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                    [post_name] => the-outlook-for-natural-gas-demand-in-europe
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                    [post_content] => The change of government in Kyiv, the Russian military action in Crimea, the diplomatic reaction by the western powers, and the perceived danger of war, clearly have implications for all economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, especially in the energy sphere. Russia supplies about 30% of Europe’s natural gas, and more than half of these volumes are still transported via Ukraine. In Ukraine, gas supply issues are combined with the economic upheavals aggravated by political crisis.

As of March 10th 2014, the most likely source of supply disruptions is the serious indebtedness of Naftogaz Ukrainy, which, despite clearing some of its $3.3 billion debt to Gazprom in late February, as of 7 March was in arrears to Gazprom by a sum of just under $2 billion.  In previous Russo-Ukrainian gas disputes, such a build-up of debt has led to Gazprom cutting off deliveries to Ukrainian customers and the subsequent diversion of transit gas bound for Europe to consumption in Ukraine. This led in January 2009 to all westward deliveries of Russian gas, both to EU and Ukrainian destinations, being suspended for two weeks.

If gas deliveries through Ukraine are halted the impact would be less serious than in 2009, because (i) the Nord Stream pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Germany without crossing Ukraine or Belarus, has been completed, and other interconnections have improved the situation in eastern Europe; and (ii) the economic situation, and the arrival of milder weather means that demand is relatively low.

From Europe’s standpoint, commercial logic would suggest that support would be given to diversifying gas transit away from Ukraine, including regulatory support for the South Stream pipeline, which, if completed with four strings, should enable the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to be suspended completely by 2020. However, it is possible that a political move to minimise cooperation with Russia on energy issues in line with European governments’ views of the Russian action in Crimea – may prevail. In this case, the EU-Russian disputes over gas imports and regulation will worsen, with potentially negative consequences for South Stream. Moreover, European efforts to diversify away from Russian gas, the success of which has been limited in the past because of the economic costs, will be revived.
                    [post_title] => What the Ukrainian crisis means for gas markets
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                    [post_content] => The Italian gas market is the third largest in Europe with strong demand growth especially in the power generation sector up to the mid 2000s. But projections of demand growth from that era have not been realised. Clearly the impact of the financial crisis and subsequent recession has had a significant impact, exacerbated by the growth in wind and solar generation capacity.

Market liberalisation in the 2000s failed to achieve levels of competition in the mid and downstream sectors to the extent seen in North West European markets. This resulted not only in some of the highest European end-user gas prices, but also delayed development of a liquid trading hub. Only in late 2012 did prices at the Italian gas hub PSV align with the prices at the Dutch gas hub TTF and other North West European hubs after capacity availability issues in linking infrastructure were resolved.

Italy’s contracted supply commitments considerably exceed current and envisaged gas consumption levels. Scenarios on gas demand are not optimistic and will ultimately depend on future economic activity, tempered by the growth of renewable capacity.

This paper takes these issues into consideration, and offers some insights regarding the challenges but also the opportunities that will arise in the Italian gas industry up to 2020.
                    [post_title] => The Italian Gas Market  - Challenges and Opportunities
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                    [post_content] => In parallel with a flourishing economy, the natural gas industry in Spain was characterised by rapid consumption growth in the late 1990s and 2000s. Infrastructure and supplies were designed to meet the needs of a gas market growing at double digit rates each year. This high growth rate - for a European gas market - was expected to continue until at least the mid-2010s. By 2011, this outlook was replaced by a more pessimistic one. Firstly, the country’s economy was hit hard by the global recession and GDP growth recovered later than average for Europe. Secondly, the utilisation of Spain’s CCGTs dropped from 52% in 2008 to only 33% in 2010 as a result of an increasing use of renewable energy - especially wind and hydropower - to produce electricity. This raises the question of whether the expectation of gas demand in the Spanish power sector is ever going to materialise. The objective of this paper is to investigate the state of the Spanish gas market and its potential for growth. Will the negative impacts on the gas market be short lived or is there a need to review the scenarios to incorporate new dynamics relative to economic growth and renewable energy use?  What will the consequence be of these changes on the gas industry?
                    [post_title] => The Spanish Gas Market: Demand Trends Post Recession and Consequences for the Industry
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                    [post_date] => 2011-01-25 17:25:33
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                    [post_content] => This paper is a companion piece to the book “Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Prices: Cycles, seasons, and the impact of LNG price arbitrage” published in January 2011 by the OIES.1 The aim of this paper was to give a short statistical update on gas demand since the book was finished. The main text provides some concise analysis on gas demand trends and the main sectors of consumption. The appendices offer additional statistical details by country.
                    [post_title] => Economic recession and natural gas demand in Europe: what happened in 2008-2010?
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                    [post_content] => Why do we need a study on gas demand? First, because energy forecasts predict natural gas to be the fastest growing primary energy source in Europe in the next 2−3 decades. Gas demand forecasts commonly show optimistic trends increasing gently or steeply, as shown in Figure 1. The reasons for this expected ‘dash for gas’ are well known: the economics and efficiency of the new combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants, the environmental qualities of gas, and the adaptability, flexibility and availability of gas in an open power sector.
                    [post_title] => Future Natural Gas Demand in Europe: The importance of the gas sector
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                    [post_content] => This presentation was given by Anouk Honoré at the Energy Risk Management seminar on June 28, 2005 at the Cass Business School in London. It highlights the first results of our on-going research on gas demand in Europe.
                    [post_title] => Gas Demand in Europe: The role of the power sector
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                    [post_content] => Argentina has a peculiar history. In the early 1900s, it was one of the leading countries in the world, but at the end of the century it more resembled a developing country.  Argentina remains however the richest country in South America despite its economic decline, as measured by GDP per capita.
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                    [post_content] => Anouk Honore examines the origins of the current Argentine gas crisis, governmental responses to it and its effect on Southern Cone energy integration. 
                    [post_title] => Argentina 2004: A Gas Crisis?
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                    [post_content] => Using examples of ongoing multi-billion euro investments in projects which will deliver gas to the UK market, Jonathan Stern and Anouk Honoré show that the risks to such projects posed by market liberalisation are being assumed by market players, and are not preventing large scale, long-term supply reaching the UK.
                    [post_title] => Large Scale Investments in Liberalised Gas Markets: The UK Case
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            [post_content] => In this presentation, Anouk Honoré argues that even if gas demand growth in 2015 and 2016 may not necessarily be signs of recovery, the next 5-10 years will/could be different from the longer term ‘future of gas’ debate in Europe. She analyses the reasons to believe why gas demand could stay high in this timeframe. The presentation concludes that now is the time to make the arguments of the immediate benefits of natural gas, but at the same time, there will not be ‘one scenario fits all’ and specific factors need to be considered for each country. This presentation will be followed by an Insight to be published in June 2017.
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Latest Publications by Anouk Honoré

Latest research by Anouk Honoré

Books by Anouk Honoré

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • New OIES paper on India's gas market post-COP21 https://t.co/vAuYnFYZ0f https://t.co/M17eWF8sZ1

    June 27th

  • J Henderson & A Mehdi on Russia's Middle East Energy Diplomacy & How Kremlin Strengthened Its Position in the Region https://t.co/RVOSkX09JM

    June 27th

  • New publication: India’s Gas Market Post-COP21 https://t.co/fpAWwAzvm2

    June 26th

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