Jonathan Stern

Distinguished Research Fellow, Natural Gas Research Programme

Jonathan Stern founded the OIES Natural Gas Research Programme in 2003 and was its Director until October 2011 when he became its Chairman and a Senior Research Fellow, he became a Distinguished Fellow in October 2016. He is honorary professor at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum & Mineral Law & Policy, University of Dundee; visiting professor at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; fellow of the Energy Delta Institute and a Distinguished Research Fellow of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (in Tokyo). From 2011-16 he was the EU Speaker of the EU–Russia Gas Advisory Council. He is the author and editor of several books, including: Natural Gas in Asia: The Challenges of Growth in China, India, Japan and Korea, the second edition of which was published by OUP in 2008; co-editor with Bassam Fattouh of Natural Gas Markets in the Middle East and North Africa (OUP, 2011); and editor of The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas (OUP, 2012). In 2014, his publications included papers (co-authored with other members of the gas programme) ‘Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas – Distinguishing Natural Gas Security from Geopolitics’ and ‘The Dynamics of a Liberalised European Gas Market: Determinants of Hub Prices and Roles and Risks of Major Players’. He is author of two chapters in: eds. Anne-Sophie Corbeau and David Ledesma, `LNG Markets in Transition: the Great Reconfiguration’, published by OIES and KAPSARC in 2016. His most recent paper on The Future of Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets was published by the Institute in January 2017.

Areas of Expertise
Natural gas issues worldwide: development, trade, liberalisation, regulation, security, utility business models, gas and decarbonisation.

For all publications please click here

Contact

WP_Query Object
(
    [query] => Array
        (
            [post_type] => publications
            [posts_per_page] => -1
            [meta_query] => Array
                (
                    [0] => Array
                        (
                            [key] => author
                            [value] => 14580
                            [compare] => LIKE
                        )

                )

        )

    [query_vars] => Array
        (
            [post_type] => publications
            [posts_per_page] => -1
            [meta_query] => Array
                (
                    [0] => Array
                        (
                            [key] => author
                            [value] => 14580
                            [compare] => LIKE
                        )

                )

            [error] => 
            [m] => 
            [p] => 0
            [post_parent] => 
            [subpost] => 
            [subpost_id] => 
            [attachment] => 
            [attachment_id] => 0
            [name] => 
            [static] => 
            [pagename] => 
            [page_id] => 0
            [second] => 
            [minute] => 
            [hour] => 
            [day] => 0
            [monthnum] => 0
            [year] => 0
            [w] => 0
            [category_name] => 
            [tag] => 
            [cat] => 
            [tag_id] => 
            [author] => 
            [author_name] => 
            [feed] => 
            [tb] => 
            [paged] => 0
            [meta_key] => 
            [meta_value] => 
            [preview] => 
            [s] => 
            [sentence] => 
            [title] => 
            [fields] => 
            [menu_order] => 
            [embed] => 
            [category__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [category__not_in] => Array
                (
                )

            [category__and] => Array
                (
                )

            [post__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [post__not_in] => Array
                (
                )

            [post_name__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [tag__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [tag__not_in] => Array
                (
                )

            [tag__and] => Array
                (
                )

            [tag_slug__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [tag_slug__and] => Array
                (
                )

            [post_parent__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [post_parent__not_in] => Array
                (
                )

            [author__in] => Array
                (
                )

            [author__not_in] => Array
                (
                )

            [ignore_sticky_posts] => 
            [suppress_filters] => 
            [cache_results] => 1
            [update_post_term_cache] => 1
            [lazy_load_term_meta] => 1
            [update_post_meta_cache] => 1
            [nopaging] => 1
            [comments_per_page] => 50
            [no_found_rows] => 
            [order] => DESC
        )

    [tax_query] => WP_Tax_Query Object
        (
            [queries] => Array
                (
                )

            [relation] => AND
            [table_aliases:protected] => Array
                (
                )

            [queried_terms] => Array
                (
                )

            [primary_table] => wp_posts
            [primary_id_column] => ID
        )

    [meta_query] => WP_Meta_Query Object
        (
            [queries] => Array
                (
                    [0] => Array
                        (
                            [key] => author
                            [value] => 14580
                            [compare] => LIKE
                        )

                    [relation] => OR
                )

            [relation] => AND
            [meta_table] => wp_postmeta
            [meta_id_column] => post_id
            [primary_table] => wp_posts
            [primary_id_column] => ID
            [table_aliases:protected] => Array
                (
                    [0] => wp_postmeta
                )

            [clauses:protected] => Array
                (
                    [wp_postmeta] => Array
                        (
                            [key] => author
                            [value] => 14580
                            [compare] => LIKE
                            [alias] => wp_postmeta
                            [cast] => CHAR
                        )

                )

            [has_or_relation:protected] => 
        )

    [date_query] => 
    [request] => SELECT   wp_posts.* FROM wp_posts  INNER JOIN wp_postmeta ON ( wp_posts.ID = wp_postmeta.post_id ) WHERE 1=1  AND ( 
  ( wp_postmeta.meta_key = 'author' AND wp_postmeta.meta_value LIKE '%14580%' )
) AND wp_posts.post_type = 'publications' AND (wp_posts.post_status = 'publish' OR wp_posts.post_status = 'acf-disabled') GROUP BY wp_posts.ID ORDER BY wp_posts.post_date DESC 
    [posts] => Array
        (
            [0] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 30350
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2017-04-21 09:47:16
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-21 08:47:16
                    [post_content] => 

On 13 March 2017 DG COMP announced its satisfaction with Gazprom’s commitments, submitted in response to DG COMP’s concerns in respect of Gazprom’s alleged anti-competitive practices in several central and east European EU member states, relating to territorial restrictions, pricing, and infrastructure. Gazprom’s commitments have addressed all substantiated DG COMP concerns and their acceptance would provide insurance against any future abuse by Gazprom of its dominant position in these countries. Most importantly, Gazprom has henceforth agreed to charge average weighted import border prices in Germany, France and Italy and/or prices at relevant generally accepted liquid hubs in Continental Europe instead of alternative fuel (oil-linked) prices, despite the fact that at present west European border/hub prices do not (yet) accurately represent gas market conditions in either Bulgaria or the Baltics (and only in the past one to two years, and only approximately in Poland). This means that if the commitments are accepted, buyers in these countries will be able to buy Russian gas at prices which otherwise would not have been offered to them until interconnections had been established with north-west European hubs (potentially up to three years hence). Therefore it is reasonable to expect an overall positive response to the commitments during the (ongoing) market test, followed by DG COMP’s acceptance of the commitments and closure of the case with a settlement. However, it cannot be ruled out that some member states, specifically Poland, might attempt to derail such a settlement. Should that happen and the case be referred to the EU Court of Justice (CJEU), the whole episode could drag on for several more years.

[post_title] => The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom's Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a comment on commitments [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => eu-competition-investigation-gazproms-sales-central-eastern-europe-comment-commitments [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-04-21 09:47:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-04-21 08:47:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30350 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30001 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-01-09 10:45:42 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-01-09 10:45:42 [post_content] =>

The European gas industry has argued that gas can be a bridging fuel in the transition to decarbonised energy markets because of the advantages of switching from coal to gas, and the role of gas in backing up intermittent renewable power generation. While this remains a logical approach for some countries, in others it has proved either not relevant, or generally unsuccessful in gaining acceptance with either policymakers or the environmental community. Policy decisions will be taken in the next 5-10 years which will irreversibly impact the future of gas in the period 2030-50. A paradigm shift in commercial time horizons and gas value chain cooperation will be necessary for the industry to embrace decarbonisation technologies (such as carbon capture and storage), which will eventually be necessary if gas is to prolong its future in European energy markets. To ensure a post-2030 future in European energy balances, the gas community will be obliged to adopt a new message: `Gas can Decarbonise’ (and remain competitive with other low/zero carbon energy supplies). It will need to back up this message with a strategy which will lead to the decarbonisation of methane starting no later than 2030. Failure to do so will be to accept a future of decline, albeit on a scale of decades, and to risk that by the time the community engages with decarbonisation, non-methane policy options will have been adopted which will make that decline irreversible.

Executive Summary       [post_title] => The Future of Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets - the need for a new approach [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => future-gas-decarbonising-european-energy-markets-need-new-approach [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-01-09 10:45:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-01-09 10:45:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30001 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29314 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-06-06 12:40:15 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-06-06 11:40:15 [post_content] => The new Japanese LNG Strategy published in May 2016 envisages the creation of a liquid market and an international LNG hub in Japan. This promises to radically change the traditional JCC (crude oil) based pricing system in Japan, but also potentially in the Pacific Basin as a whole. But the path to hub creation and hub pricing in the early 2020s envisaged by the Strategy will not be straightforward. Non-US LNG projects starting up in the 2016-20 period have JCC-linked prices. US projects have offtake agreements which envisaged an Asian `premium’ to Atlantic Basin prices which has now disappeared. In contrast to `international cooperation’ envisaged by the Strategy which would see buyers and sellers agreeing to change the commercial terms of long term contracts, conflict could be a more likely outcome. [post_title] => The new Japanese LNG strategy: a major step towards hub-based gas pricing in Asia [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => new-japanese-lng-strategy-major-step-towards-hub-based-gas-pricing-asia [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-06-20 11:35:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-06-20 10:35:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29314 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27376 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-01-21 12:50:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-01-21 12:50:05 [post_content] => The cancellation of the South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea may signal a fundamental reorientation of Russian gas export policy. Its replacement by similar pipelines direct to Turkey, and the abandonment of Gazprom’s long time strategy of supplying gas directly to European customers, comes in the wake of financial sanctions and an inability to negotiate the construction of new pipelines within the EU due to Third Energy Package regulation. The signing a first major pipeline export contract with China in 2014, and the possibility of a second contract in 2015, is shifting the emphasis of future Russian gas exports away from Europe and towards Asia. The irony of this change, which has largely been forced on Russia following US and EU measures taken in response to the Ukraine crisis, is that it has pushed Gazprom into a much more logical commercial export strategy and one which it should have adopted some years previously. The principal problem is that financial sanctions may prevent the company from being able to simultaneously finance a number of very large pipeline export projects. [post_title] => Does the cancellation of South Stream signal a fundamental reorientation of Russian gas export policy? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => does-the-cancellation-of-south-stream-signal-a-fundamental-reorientation-of-russian-gas-export-policy [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:00:24 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:00:24 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/does-the-cancellation-of-south-stream-signal-a-fundamental-reorientation-of-russian-gas-export-policy/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27385 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-12-01 12:42:14 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-12-01 12:42:14 [post_content] => Hub pricing is dominant in north west European gas markets and is spreading to the south and east of the Continent. A new study by Howard Rogers and Jonathan Stern finds that the most important determinants of European hub prices will be global gas market dynamics. Changes in these dynamics will create price competition between LNG from a variety of sources (including North America) and Russian pipeline gas in Europe. Changes in prices and contracts in the new competitive environment of European gas markets have had significant impacts on the roles and risks of the major groups of European gas market players. Mid-stream energy trading companies have encountered the biggest problems because hub pricing has rendered their traditional business model (at least partially) unworkable, and an urgency to move to a hub-minus/hub-plus commercial model. Should this prove impossible, companies are likely to exit the natural gas sector with significant impacts on security of supply, and the likelihood that many existing long term contracts will be unable to survive into the 2020s. Executive Summary [post_title] => The Dynamics of a Liberalised European Gas Market - Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-dynamics-of-a-liberalised-european-gas-market-key-determinants-of-hub-prices-and-roles-and-risks-of-major-players [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 17:21:25 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 17:21:25 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-dynamics-of-a-liberalised-european-gas-market-key-determinants-of-hub-prices-and-roles-and-risks-of-major-players/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27389 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52 [post_content] => There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s. Countries in the Baltic region and south eastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination of LNG and pipeline gas from Azerbaijan. Similar measures could reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of central Europe and Turkey on Russian gas. However, Russian gas will be highly competitive with all other pipeline gas and LNG (including US LNG) supplies to Europe, and Gazprom’s market power to impact European hub prices may be considerable. Countries with strong geopolitical fears related to Russian gas dependence will need to either terminate, or not renew on expiry, their long term contracts with Gazprom. [post_title] => Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas - distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 17:42:06 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 17:42:06 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27436 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-02-03 11:33:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-02-03 11:33:27 [post_content] => Since 2000, diverging regional gas demand and production trends have induced a wider and more flexible network of trade-flows in an increasingly interconnected gas world, accelerated by unforeseen shocks in both supply and demand. North America and the UK entered the 2000s with liberalised markets and after many years of pro-competition EU regulatory initiatives, the dominance of oil-indexation in continental Europe began to wane in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.  In 2013 a combination of base price reductions and rebates brought Russian long term contract prices in competitive markets close to hub levels. The major lesson from North American and European gas markets is that financial distress of major utilities is transformative. This certainly pertains to the situation of Japan’s power generation companies who, excluding TEPCO, are currently losing in excess of $10 billion per year because of the need to import higher quantities of LNG (due to the shutdown of nuclear plant) at prices linked to crude at prices in excess of $100/bbl. Given the scale of the Asian importers existing oil-indexed LNG contracted portfolios (and hence the limited scope for adjusting price dynamics much before 2020) and the oil-indexed pricing expectations of non-US prospective suppliers, there is a developing mismatch in pricing aspirations not just for future, but also possibly for existing, contracts. The prospect of new supplies of US LNG post 2015 offers an alternative to the status quo in terms of pricing models. This paper argues however that rather than basing new contracts on a US price benchmark, Asian buyers should develop a price formation mechanism more attuned to national or regional fundamentals.  The paper concludes that we may move from todays ‘contractual impasse’ scenario to either a ‘smooth contractual transition’ or, less desirable for all parties, a scenario described as the ‘contractual train wreck’. While the growth of an liquid LNG trading hub is seen as a key enabler to move to a more rational pricing reference point for Asian LNG contracts, the paper recognises the not insubstantial challenges in achieving this, calling for institutional and policy change on the part of buyers as well as sellers in this crucial, historically high growth, market segment. [post_title] => Challenges to JCC Pricing in Asian LNG Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => challenges-to-jcc-pricing-in-asian-lng-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:30:00 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:30:00 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/challenges-to-jcc-pricing-in-asian-lng-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27496 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-02-12 08:22:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-02-12 08:22:56 [post_content] => This energy comment is a response to a paper by Sergei Komlev, from the Contract Structuring and Pricing Directorate of Gazprom Export, which challenged the conclusions of previous OIES research on European gas pricing and suggested that we had “refused to engage constructively with those who offer opposing viewpoints.” In this comment, Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers set out the differences between their research and that of Sergei Komlev and respond to his criticisms. They conclude that contractual linkage of European natural gas prices to oil no longer has any market reality, and is only held in place by existing long-term contracts. By contrast they suggest that Komlev is refusing to recognize that the era of oil-linked gas pricing is drawing to a close in Europe (and is subject to increasingly serious challenge in Asia) and also refuses to accept that such changes represent a secular trend which will not be reversed. This is far from an academic argument: the extent to which Gazprom is willing to change its views on pricing will have a significant impact on Russian gas supplies to Europe, and hence on the future of the entire European gas market. [post_title] => The Transition to Hub-Based Pricing in Continental Europe - A Response to Sergei Komlev of Gazprom Export [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-transition-to-hub-based-pricing-in-continental-europe-a-response-to-sergei-komlev-of-gazprom-export [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:54:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:54:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-transition-to-hub-based-pricing-in-continental-europe-a-response-to-sergei-komlev-of-gazprom-export/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28231 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-03-31 13:11:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-03-31 12:11:41 [post_content] => This paper by Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers argue that Continental European gas markets are moving inexorably from oil-linked to hub-based pricing. Market prices for gas increasingly reflect a complex combination of national regional and global supply and demand for gas rather than oil products. An increasingly competitive European gas market created by third party access enforced by a combination of EU and national regulations means that any supplier refusing to supply gas at hub prices will lose customers. The commercial risk for utilities which are importing gas at oil-linked prices under long term contracts but forced to sell at market prices has become untenable. The European gas industry is in the early stages of a commercial paradigm shift away from oil-linked and towards hub-based pricing. This is likely to be accompanied by major changes in contractual arrangements including termination of many existing long term contracts probably involving significant litigation. [post_title] => The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-transition-to-hub-based-gas-pricing-in-continental-europe-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:09:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:09:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-transition-to-hub-based-gas-pricing-in-continental-europe-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28251 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2010-06-01 00:00:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-05-31 23:00:27 [post_content] => An agreement signed on 21 April 2010 by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and his newly-elected Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovich provided for a 30% discount on Russian gas imported to Ukraine, in return for a 25-year extension of the lease to Russia of the Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol. The agreement came along with declarations from both sides that political and diplomatic relationships would improve after the departure of Yanukovich‟s predecessor Viktor Yushchenko, whose pronounced pro-western foreign policy, centred on NATO accession, was distrusted in Moscow. There followed a flurry of other proposals for deeper Russo-Ukrainian cooperation – in the electricity generation, atomic, aerospace and telecoms sectors, among others. This article considers the significance of the new agreement with Russia, (a) for Ukraine as a gas transit country, and for the European states that rely on Russian imports transported via Ukraine, and (b) for the Ukrainian gas market. [post_title] => The April 2010 Russo-Ukrainian gas agreement and its implications for Europe [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-april-2010-russo-ukrainian-gas-agreement-and-its-implications-for-europe-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:16:48 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:16:48 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-april-2010-russo-ukrainian-gas-agreement-and-its-implications-for-europe-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28277 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-10-01 00:00:14 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-09-30 23:00:14 [post_content] => Since at least 2006, concern has been expressed by a number of commentators, both western and Russian, that Gazprom has not invested in future production sufficiently to guarantee that it can meet its market obligations and, particularly, its long term contract export obligations to European customers.1 This argument runs that, although Gazprom may have huge reserves, it has not paid enough attention to developing them. Instead, at the behest of the Russian government, it has invested hugely in the Russian oil and electricity sectors, as well as exotic overseas projects in African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries. [post_title] => Future Gas Production in Russia: is the concern about lack of investment justified? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => future-gas-production-in-russia-is-the-concern-about-lack-of-investment-justified-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:02:59 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:02:59 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/future-gas-production-in-russia-is-the-concern-about-lack-of-investment-justified-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28280 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-09-01 00:00:54 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-08-31 23:00:54 [post_content] => A paper published in April 2007 questioned the continued rationale of the linkage of Continental European long term contract gas prices to oil product prices.1 It concluded that the logic of linking gas prices to those of (mainly) oil products had largely disappeared in the major European gas markets. In the following two years, energy and non-energy events have begun to exert substantial pressure on the oil linkage mechanism. The global economic and financial crisis, which began in late 2008, has significantly depressed European energy and gas demand. Substantial new LNG supply is coming on stream during 2009-10, some of which is seeking markets in Europe. This has caused a substantial short term supply surplus which is increasing the pressure for change in the price-setting mechanism of European long term gas contracts. This paper does not repeat the majority of the material in the 2007 study, but focuses instead on developments over the past two years and the outlook in September 2009. [post_title] => Continental European Long-Term Gas Contracts: is a transition away from oil product-linked pricing inevitable and imminent? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => continental-european-long-term-gas-contracts-is-a-transition-away-from-oil-product-linked-pricing-inevitable-and-imminent-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:54:43 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:54:43 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/continental-european-long-term-gas-contracts-is-a-transition-away-from-oil-product-linked-pricing-inevitable-and-imminent-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27656 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-02-01 00:00:31 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-02-01 00:00:31 [post_content] => The gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine in January 2009 was by far the most serious of its kind. The two sides failed to agree a price for Russian gas supply to Ukraine and a tariff for the transit of Russian gas to Europe before previous agreements expired on 31 December 2008. Russian exports to Ukraine were cut off on 1 January. Exports to 16 EU member states and Moldova were drastically reduced on 6 January and cut completely from 7 January. Deliveries to both Ukraine and other European countries restarted on 20 January following the signing of two new ten year contracts. The most seriously affected countries in the Balkans experienced a humanitarian emergency, with parts of the populations unable to heat their homes. Significant economic problems, but not of a humanitarian kind, were also caused in Hungary and Slovakia. [post_title] => The Russo-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009: a comprehensive assessment [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-russo-ukrainian-gas-dispute-of-january-2009-a-comprehensive-assessment [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:57:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:57:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-russo-ukrainian-gas-dispute-of-january-2009-a-comprehensive-assessment/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27661 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-01-01 00:00:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-01-01 00:00:07 [post_content] => The dispute between Russia and Ukraine is causing substantial suffering in central and east European countries which have few, if any, other sources of gas, and very limited opportunity to switch to other fuels. Jonathan Stern proposes the resumption of Russian gas deliveries to central and east European countries on humanitarian grounds. [post_title] => Resumption of Russian Gas Deliveries to Central and East European Countries on Humanitarian Grounds: A Proposal [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => resumption-of-russian-gas-deliveries-to-central-and-east-european-countries-on-humanitarian-grounds-a-proposal [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:50:51 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:50:51 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/resumption-of-russian-gas-deliveries-to-central-and-east-european-countries-on-humanitarian-grounds-a-proposal/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27677 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2008-03-04 00:00:40 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-03-04 00:00:40 [post_content] => The results of a poll of gas industry professionals at the FLAME Conference in Amsterdam reveal far less concern about dependence on gas imports, and specifically dependence on Russian gas supplies, than is found in most political and media commentary. 60% of respondents were either "not at all" or "a little" worried about Europe's increasing gas import dependence. The same percentage believed that, of the non-European sources of gas, Russia would be the most reliable supplier over the next five years. [post_title] => Security of European Gas Supplies - a survey of gas industry opinion from the FLAME Conference, Amsterdam [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => security-of-european-gas-supplies-a-survey-of-gas-industry-opinion-from-the-flame-conference-amsterdam [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:44:47 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:44:47 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/security-of-european-gas-supplies-a-survey-of-gas-industry-opinion-from-the-flame-conference-amsterdam/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [15] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28355 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2007-04-01 00:00:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-03-31 23:00:16 [post_content] => This paper examines the rationale for the continuing linkage of European gas prices to oil product prices. With the passage of liberalisation and competition legislation by the EU and national governments, starting in the late 1990s, it was expected that prices would be determined by gas to gas competition, as happened in both North America and the UK in the 1980s and 1990s. However, in the 2000s, North American and UK gas prices regained a more immediate correlation with oil prices, while Continental European prices in long-term contracts have remained (predominantly) linked to oil products. A number of additional questions arising from the linkage between oil and gas prices – in particular whether prices of the two fuels tend towards a natural correlation irrespective of contractual relationships between market players – are also examined. But the specific question which this paper addresses is whether there is still a rationale for gas prices to be largely indexed to oil product prices in European gas contracts and, if so, what is that rationale? [post_title] => Is There a Rationale for the Continuing Link to Oil Product Prices in Continental European Long Term Gas Contracts? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => is-there-a-rationale-for-the-continuing-link-to-oil-product-prices-in-continental-european-long-term-gas-contracts-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:12:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:12:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/is-there-a-rationale-for-the-continuing-link-to-oil-product-prices-in-continental-european-long-term-gas-contracts-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [16] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27763 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2007-02-01 00:00:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-02-01 00:00:25 [post_content] => President Putin's comment that Russia will study the possibility of creating a "gas-OPEC" created a wave of newspaper headlines. Jonathan Stern argues that gas-OPEC is a distraction from much more important issues which have recently emerged in gas trade between Russia and Europe. [post_title] => Gas-Opec: A Distraction from Important Issues of Russian Gas Supply to Europe [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => gas-opec-a-distraction-from-important-issues-of-russian-gas-supply-to-europe [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:11:06 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:11:06 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/gas-opec-a-distraction-from-important-issues-of-russian-gas-supply-to-europe/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [17] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27780 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2006-10-01 00:00:29 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-09-30 23:00:29 [post_content] => In 2006, security of European gas supply became a very topical subject following the cuts in Russian supplies to Ukraine in the first days of the year which had the consequence of restricting the availability of supplies to some European countries. Much of the subsequent discourse has been concerned with ‘the arithmetic of gas security’ expressed as current and projected national or collective dependence of European countries on non-OECD suppliers (or groups of suppliers) over the next 15– 25 years. Increasing dependence is directly correlated with growing insecurity, defined as the likelihood that gas exporting countries will cut off, or threaten to cut off, supplies to importing countries in support of their commercial and political (foreign policy) demands. The European Union (EU) has responded to the prospect of growing import dependence with the publication, since 2000, of two Green Papers and a security of supply Directive. [post_title] => The New Security Environment for European Gas: Worsening Geopolitics and Increasing Global Competition for LNG [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-new-security-environment-for-european-gas-worsening-geopolitics-and-increasing-global-competition-for-lng [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:10:05 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:10:05 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-new-security-environment-for-european-gas-worsening-geopolitics-and-increasing-global-competition-for-lng/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [18] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27829 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2006-01-01 00:00:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-01-01 00:00:27 [post_content] => Jonathan Stern examines the recent Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis [post_title] => The Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis of January 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-russian-ukrainian-gas-crisis-of-january-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:06:11 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:06:11 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-russian-ukrainian-gas-crisis-of-january-2006/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [19] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27864 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2004-11-01 00:00:52 [post_date_gmt] => 2004-11-01 00:00:52 [post_content] => This presentation was given by Professor Jonathan Stern at the Symposium on the European Natural Gas Market, AER/CPB/ECN, The Hague. [post_title] => Investments and Uncertainty in Liberalised Gas Markets: do projects need Article 22 exemptions? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => investments-and-uncertainty-in-liberalised-gas-markets-do-projects-need-article-22-exemptions [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:04:06 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:04:06 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/investments-and-uncertainty-in-liberalised-gas-markets-do-projects-need-article-22-exemptions/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [20] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27894 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2004-07-01 00:00:37 [post_date_gmt] => 2004-06-30 23:00:37 [post_content] => Using examples of ongoing multi-billion euro investments in projects which will deliver gas to the UK market, Jonathan Stern and Anouk Honoré show that the risks to such projects posed by market liberalisation are being assumed by market players, and are not preventing large scale, long-term supply reaching the UK. [post_title] => Large Scale Investments in Liberalised Gas Markets: The UK Case [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => large-scale-investments-in-liberalised-gas-markets-the-uk-case [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:44:44 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:44:44 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/large-scale-investments-in-liberalised-gas-markets-the-uk-case/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 21 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30350 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-04-21 09:47:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-21 08:47:16 [post_content] =>

On 13 March 2017 DG COMP announced its satisfaction with Gazprom’s commitments, submitted in response to DG COMP’s concerns in respect of Gazprom’s alleged anti-competitive practices in several central and east European EU member states, relating to territorial restrictions, pricing, and infrastructure. Gazprom’s commitments have addressed all substantiated DG COMP concerns and their acceptance would provide insurance against any future abuse by Gazprom of its dominant position in these countries. Most importantly, Gazprom has henceforth agreed to charge average weighted import border prices in Germany, France and Italy and/or prices at relevant generally accepted liquid hubs in Continental Europe instead of alternative fuel (oil-linked) prices, despite the fact that at present west European border/hub prices do not (yet) accurately represent gas market conditions in either Bulgaria or the Baltics (and only in the past one to two years, and only approximately in Poland). This means that if the commitments are accepted, buyers in these countries will be able to buy Russian gas at prices which otherwise would not have been offered to them until interconnections had been established with north-west European hubs (potentially up to three years hence). Therefore it is reasonable to expect an overall positive response to the commitments during the (ongoing) market test, followed by DG COMP’s acceptance of the commitments and closure of the case with a settlement. However, it cannot be ruled out that some member states, specifically Poland, might attempt to derail such a settlement. Should that happen and the case be referred to the EU Court of Justice (CJEU), the whole episode could drag on for several more years.

[post_title] => The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom's Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a comment on commitments [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => eu-competition-investigation-gazproms-sales-central-eastern-europe-comment-commitments [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-04-21 09:47:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-04-21 08:47:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30350 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 21 [max_num_pages] => 0 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => 1 [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => 1 [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => 44e3223349f56f2a18b0601912d7345d [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) )

Latest Publications by Jonathan Stern

Books by Jonathan Stern

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • B Fattouh on Saudi oil consumption: High growth rates of consumption & crude burn seen in past decades are behind us https://t.co/UhB2IpQSpt

    May 25th

  • 0IES' @thierry_bros to speak at the Africa Energy Forum #AEF17 on 7 June in Copenhagen https://t.co/YvSXBH3Sn6

    May 24th

  • Tough market conditions for new final investment decision in FLNG. @thierry_bros quoted in @LesEchos https://t.co/vPAGy9qYKW

    May 24th

Sign up for our Newsletter

Register your email address here and we will send you notification of new publications, comment, articles etc. automatically.