Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 16
The recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian build-up of troops close to the Ukrainian border have renewed public debate over Europe’s dependence on hydrocarbons imported from Russia, and natural gas in particular. There is particular concern over the security of pipeline gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine. In this special edition of the Quarterly Gas Review, we begin by explaining the level of European dependence on gas imported by pipeline from Russia, before setting out several scenarios under which supplies from Russia might be disrupted. We then analyse how Europe might substitute those Russian supplies with supplies from other sources. Finally, using the NexantECA World Gas Model, we lay out three scenarios covering – a partial curtailment of supplies from Russia, a complete cessation of supplies from Russia, and the ‘base case’ but with Nord Stream 2 approval being permanently withheld – and how these scenarios would impact Europe’s gas balance in 2022 and 2023.