Rahmat Poudineh

Lead Senior Research Fellow

Rahmat joined the institute in November 2014 to lead the electricity research programme. Previously he was a researcher in Durham University where he worked on energy research projects and finished his PhD in energy economics.

Rahmat’s educational background comprised an MSc in energy economics and policy from University of Surrey, a graduate diploma in economics from Queen Mary University of London and a BSc in aerospace engineering from Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic).

Areas of Expertise
Energy sector reform and market liberalisation, Regulatory economics, Electricity markets, Energy policy, Energy technology and Innovation

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Contact

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                    [post_date] => 2017-03-06 10:56:05
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                    [post_content] => In a recent paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the gas to power supply chains in Nigeria and Bangladesh. This short article draws on the results of that study.

In response to the dual challenge of decarbonisation and advancing energy access, some developing countries that are endowed with domestic natural gas resources have embarked on the path to develop a gas-to-power supply chain. Nigeria and Bangladesh, two of the most populous countries in the world, have adopted such a strategy. This paper uses a multi-step approach to evaluate the performance of the gas-to-power supply chains in these countries within political, regulatory, and commercial dimensions. The goal is to offer insights for other developing countries which are pursuing or considering the same strategy. By analysing the causal dynamics that are in place in Bangladesh and Nigeria, it suggests measures that may improve gas-to-power supply chain performance. Finally, it discusses the extent to which the causal dynamics observed can be generalised to other countries.

Full paper.
                    [post_title] => Gas-to-Power Supply Chains in Developing Countries: Comparative Case Studies of Nigeria and Bangladesh
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            [1] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 30084
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                    [post_date] => 2017-02-13 11:52:40
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                    [post_content] => Renewables in the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are inconsequential contributors to regional total primary energy supply, but recent project developments and overt support from a range of influential regional actors suggest a general trend towards a more environmentally sustainable electricity supply. This trend is driven just as much by economics as other factors, as rapidly falling renewable energy capital costs are complementing favourable policy environments, technical suitability, and concerns around the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Finance is an especially important consideration in this transition, yet it receives insufficient coverage. This paper seeks to remedy this deficiency of academic inquiry. At the root of our inquiry lies a simple pair of questions: what makes a project financeable, and what can the resource-rich nations of the region do to create vibrant clean electricity financing markets for renewables? We outline the factors that affect the financeability of projects, review the latest developments in renewable energy finance in the region, and present policy recommendations going forward.

Executive Summary
                    [post_title] => Financing renewable electricity in the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa: A review
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                    [post_content] => 

As much of the world pushes ahead with the deployment of renewable energy, resource-rich MENA economies are lagging behind. For the region to catch up, new policies are required to remove barriers of entry to the industry and create investment incentives. This paper contends that while the main obstacles to deployment of renewables are grid infrastructure inadequacy, insufficient institutional capacity, and risks and uncertainties, the investment incentives lie on a policy instrument spectrum with two polar solutions: (i) the incentive is provided entirely through the market (removing all forms of fossil fuel subsidies and internalising the cost of externalities); or (ii) the incentive is provided through a full government subsidy programme (in addition to the existing fossil fuel subsidies). However, there is a trade-off between the two dimensions of the fiscal burden and political acceptance across the policy instrument spectrum, which implies that the two polar solutions themselves are not easily and fully implementable in these countries. Therefore, we propose a combinatorial approach in which the incentive for renewables deployment is provided through a partial renewable subsidy program and partial fossil fuel price reform in a way that balances the fiscal pressure on the government against political acceptability. Additionally, the paper argues that the fact resource-rich countries are behind advanced economies in electricity sector reform gives them a last-mover advantage in the sense that they can tap into years of international experience to avoid design mistakes and create a sustainable solution that is compatible with renewables deployment and their own context.

Executive Summary

[post_title] => Advancing Renewable Energy in Resource-Rich Economies of the MENA [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => advancing-renewable-energy-resource-rich-economies-mena [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-10-03 13:56:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-10-03 12:56:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29685 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29390 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-07-18 10:45:03 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-07-18 09:45:03 [post_content] => In a recent paper we investigate the problem of incentivising flexibility in electricity markets. As the share of intermittent renewable energy increases in the generation mix, power systems are exposed to greater levels of uncertainty and risk, which requires planners, policy and business decision makers to incentivise flexibility, that is: their adaptability to unforeseen variations in generation and demand. The greater need for flexibility, along with the fact that its provision is costly, highlights the importance of efficient procurement. As a commodity, flexibility has multiple attributes such as capacity, ramp rate, duration and lead time among which there are complementarities. Additionally, along with traditional sources, which already enable flexibility, a number of business models, such as thermostat-based demand response, aggregators and small storage providers, are emerging in electricity markets and expected to constitute important sources of flexibility in future decentralised power systems. However, due to presence of high transaction costs, relative to the size of resource, the emerging small resources cannot directly participate in an organised electricity market and/or compete. Therefore we ask the fundamental question of how should the provision of flexibility, as a multi-dimensional commodity, be incentivised in this context? We model the procurement of flexibility services from emerging small resources through bilateral contracts in a multidimensional adverse selection setting. We take a normative perspective and show how efficient contracts for flexibility services can be designed given its peculiarity as an economic commodity. Through a simulation analysis we elucidate the applicability of the proposed model and demonstrate the way it can be utilised in, for example, a thermostat based demand response programme. [post_title] => Flexibility-Enabling Contracts in Electricity Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => flexibility-enabling-contracts-electricity-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-07-18 10:45:03 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-07-18 09:45:03 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29390 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29354 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-07-04 13:36:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-07-04 12:36:32 [post_content] => In order to fulfil its aspiration to become a middle-income country, Tanzania is working on improving infrastructure and service delivery in electricity provision, where $40 billion investment is needed in the sector to meet rising demand and widening electrification efforts from 2013 to 2035. This paper considers the institutional arrangements for investment in Tanzania’s power sector and surveys the track record (and possible bottlenecks) in funnelling investment to the sector, with special attention given to the gas sector, given the power sector’s planned reliance upon natural gas as a generation fuel. The paper finds that the financial health of TANESCO is central to all investment vehicles, since it is either directly responsible for investment, or indirectly, as the counter party to the variety of PPAs available with IPPs, EPPs, SPPs, or PPPs. During 2011–13, the financial position of TANESCO was negatively impacted by the increased of its electricity purchases, while the regulated tariff that it charges has not changed. The cost increase is partially attributable to non-favourable hydrology and partially attributable to the depreciation of Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar, in which PPAs are denominated. Detailed study of the tariff setting methodology in place in Tanzania, as evidenced through its latest tariff review, and evaluation of the ratemaking principles used in the tariff approved in 2013 reveals that the core tension within Tanzania’s tariff setting methodology is the trade-off between efficiency, sufficiency, and stability principles. The ex-ante assessment of TANESCO’s revenue requirement, a typical incentive-based price cap regulation, is theoretically efficient but not robust: TANESCO’s costs of service are subject to important external uncertainties like hydrology, currency depreciation, and global fuel prices. In order to take revenue sufficiency into account, the regulator needs to periodically adjust tariffs based on ex post fuel costs and inflation rates. This diminishes the regulator’s ability to maintain tariff stability, which might impact certain classes of customers more than others (lifeline rate customers and domestic industries). The experiences of other nations, namely Bangladesh and Côte d’Ivoire, reveal a potential challenge with regard to power and gas co-development: if non-cost reflective gas tariffs are applied as a regulatory decision, then high gas demand that results from that cannot be indefinitely sustained, since investment in gas supply will not follow suite. The case study of Côte d’Ivoire also reveals a less obvious opportunity: periods of low electricity demand can be leveraged positively through electricity exports, which can positively influence investor interest. Executive Summary [post_title] => Sustainable electricity pricing for Tanzania [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => susatainable-electricity-pricing-tanzania [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-07-05 14:48:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-07-05 13:48:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29354 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29338 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-06-20 13:00:39 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-06-20 12:00:39 [post_content] => The complementarity between electricity systems of the north and south Mediterranean basin along with the need for diversification of energy resources and optimisation of energy systems are among the reasons for greater electricity trade and cross-border integration in the region. However, development of cross-border interconnection in the Mediterranean basin requires a business model which provides incentives for investment and efficient operation, manages risks and uncertainties and facilitates coordinated planning and governance. We contend that, due to high perceived risk of investment, delivery of interconnection projects through the EU regulated model is less likely, or only possible at prohibitively high rate of returns. The merchant transmission initiative (MTI), on the other hand, is seen as an exception under the EU laws and can be approved only if the project meets a set of strict conditions. We, therefore, advocate a hybrid business model in which the main benefits of a merchant model are maintained within a regulated structure. We highlight the main components of the proposed business model and show how it addresses the key features of a viable business model in relation to incentives, risks and governance. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed Mediterranean business model for interconnection can better provide incentives for investment and is more compatible with the region’s energy scenario, governance structure and the risk attitude. Executive Summary [post_title] => Business model for cross-border interconnections in the Mediterranean basin [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => business-model-cross-border-interconnections-mediterranean-basin [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-06-20 13:00:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-06-20 12:00:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29338 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27314 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-11-09 10:55:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-11-09 10:55:21 [post_content] => The increasing global use of natural gas for power generation has resulted in a period of interdependence between two important energy industries. Understanding of the extended gas-to-power supply chain is important for industry agents, power and gas system operators or integrated utilities, regulators, and government bodies responsible for overall energy policy. This paper seeks to align the study of gas and power industries by providing a holistic framework for the thorough identification and discussion of power and gas sector structure, infrastructure, market, and regulatory drivers. It acts as a lens through which the combined gas and power supply chains of any given country can be observed and understood. The gas-to-power supply chain of the United Kingdom is profiled to illustrate how the framework proposed can be applied to integrate the various dimensions of power and gas industries. Executive Summary [post_title] => A holistic framework for the study of interdependence between electricity and gas sectors [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => a-holistic-framework-for-the-study-of-interdependence-between-electricity-and-gas-sectors [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 17:15:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 17:15:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/a-holistic-framework-for-the-study-of-interdependence-between-electricity-and-gas-sectors/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27320 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-10-19 15:22:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-10-19 14:22:05 [post_content] => This paper follows on from ‘Saudi Arabia’s Oil Policy: More than Meets the Eye?’ published in June 2015, which raised a set of fundamental questions in relation to the sharp drop in the oil price between June 2014 and January 2015, and OPEC’s decision, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, not to cut output in response. We develop a simple analytical framework, which formalizes Saudi Arabia’s decision-making process relative to the fundamental revenue maximization-market share trade-off in the 2014-15 oil price fall. Using a simple game, we show that under uncertainty, it is always better off for the Kingdom to assume shale oil supply is elastic and not to cut output. But we also argue that as Saudi Arabia learns more about this new source of supply, its policy will adapt accordingly. The fact Saudi Arabia’s oil policy could change as the trade-off between revenue maximization and market share evolves, and as new information is transmitted to the market, will keep the market second-guessing. It will continue to shape market expectations and influence market outcomes. Executive Summary [post_title] => The Dynamics of the Revenue Maximisation--Market Share Trade-off - Saudi Arabia's Oil Policy in the 2014--2015 Price Fall [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-dynamics-of-the-revenue-maximisation-market-share-trade-off-saudi-arabias-oil-policy-in-the-2014-2015-price-fall [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 17:17:01 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 17:17:01 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-dynamics-of-the-revenue-maximisation-market-share-trade-off-saudi-arabias-oil-policy-in-the-2014-2015-price-fall/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27324 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-09-01 12:47:04 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-09-01 11:47:04 [post_content] => The promise of carbon-free, utility-scale power generation from offshore wind farms is encouraging a number of governments to implement policy support frameworks and national targets for offshore wind power generation. However, the high capital requirements for the deployment of offshore wind have proven that it is an expensive approach to meeting national renewable energy and carbon reduction targets, relative to other power generation sources. The capital requirement for offshore wind farms will be pushed even higher as consented development zones move further from shore and into deeper waters. In this paper, we analyse the major capital cost drivers of offshore wind plants and the implications of various policy frameworks on overall cost reductions for the industry. According to the results of our analysis, this issue – whether the promotion of scalability, or of competition for subsidies, will be more effective in driving down industry-wide costs – is highly market specific. Competitive policies are likely to be most effective when the market size is sufficiently large, whereas enhancing scale is more effective in nascent markets. However, we caution that in either case, the public costs of policies directly supporting offshore wind must be reconciled with the cost of supporting other low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies that may be equally as effective in helping governments achieve renewable energy and carbon reduction targets. Executive Summary [post_title] => Achieving a cost-competitive offshore wind power industry - what is the most effective policy framework? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => achieving-a-cost-competitive-offshore-wind-power-industry-what-is-the-most-effective-policy-framework [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 13:33:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 13:33:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/achieving-a-cost-competitive-offshore-wind-power-industry-what-is-the-most-effective-policy-framework/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27327 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-08-10 10:44:42 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-08-10 09:44:42 [post_content] => Ghana’s electricity generation capacity is currently insufficient to meet demand, making power outages and load shedding common. The resulting impact is potentially devastating for the country’s growth prospects. Traditionally, lack of an affordable and reliable fuel supply for power generation, coupled with ineffective institutions and an unfavourable investment climate, have resulted in Ghana’s electricity sector performing poorly. In light of the 2007 discovery of natural gas reserves in Ghanaian waters, this paper examines whether domestic gas could advance the performance of the electricity sector, and if so, how. The results of our analysis show that utilization of gas reserves in Ghana’s gas-to-power market is an economically superior strategy compared to an export-oriented utilization scheme. The lack of an effective regulatory framework for investment, skill shortages, and an inefficient electricity pricing structure continue to be the main constraining factors. Our analysis also considers possible approaches to modification of the electricity tariff in order to send the right signal to potential investors in generation capacity, without compromising the affordability of power supply. Executive Summary [post_title] => Gas-to-power market and investment incentive for enhancing generation capacity - an analysis of Ghana’s electricity sector [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => gas-to-power-market-and-investment-incentive-for-enhancing-generation-capacity-an-analysis-of-ghanas-electricity-sector [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-11-17 16:32:04 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-11-17 16:32:04 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/gas-to-power-market-and-investment-incentive-for-enhancing-generation-capacity-an-analysis-of-ghanas-electricity-sector/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27361 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-03-09 15:11:44 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-03-09 15:11:44 [post_content] => The distribution network is an important element of the power system that delivers electricity to the end-user. In the coming years a large amount of investment is envisioned in distribution system as these networks play a pivotal role in integration of renewable resources, demand side management and market competition, among other things. At the same time, network companies are regulated natural monopolies where their investment decisions are influenced by regulatory framework and intuitional constraints. There are various models of regulatory treatment of investment but the main objective of all is to ensure sufficiency and efficiency of investment. In this presentation with explore the relationship between investment and efficiency under incentive regulation with ex-post regulatory treatment of investment costs. [post_title] => Investment and efficiency in electricity networks [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => investment-and-efficiency-in-electricity-networks [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2015-03-09 15:11:44 [post_modified_gmt] => 2015-03-09 15:11:44 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/investment-and-efficiency-in-electricity-networks/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27370 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-02-09 13:58:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-02-09 13:58:58 [post_content] => The power sector has a central role in modern economies and other interdependent infrastructures rely heavily upon secure electricity supplies. Due to interdependencies, major electricity supply interruptions result in cascading effects in other sectors of the economy. This paper investigates the economic effects of large power supply disruptions taking such interdependencies into account. We apply a dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM) to 101 sectors (including households) of the Scottish economy in 2009 in order to explore direct, indirect, and induced effects of electricity supply interruptions. We then estimate the societal cost of energy not supplied (SCENS) due to interruption, in the presence of interdependency among the sectors. The results show that the most economically affected industries, following an outage, can be different from the most inoperable ones. The results also indicate that SCENS varies with duration of a power cut, ranging from around £4300/MWh for a one-minute outage to around £8100/MWh for a three hour (and higher) interruption. The economic impact of estimates can be used to design policies for contingencies such as roll-out priorities as well as preventive investments in the sector. Executive Summary [post_title] => Electricity Supply Interruptions - Sectoral Interdependencies and the Cost of Energy Not Served for the Scottish Economy [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => electricity-supply-interruptions-sectoral-interdependencies-and-the-cost-of-energy-not-served-for-the-scottish-economy [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 17:20:38 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 17:20:38 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/electricity-supply-interruptions-sectoral-interdependencies-and-the-cost-of-energy-not-served-for-the-scottish-economy/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 12 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30167 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-03-06 10:56:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-03-06 10:56:05 [post_content] => In a recent paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the gas to power supply chains in Nigeria and Bangladesh. This short article draws on the results of that study. In response to the dual challenge of decarbonisation and advancing energy access, some developing countries that are endowed with domestic natural gas resources have embarked on the path to develop a gas-to-power supply chain. Nigeria and Bangladesh, two of the most populous countries in the world, have adopted such a strategy. This paper uses a multi-step approach to evaluate the performance of the gas-to-power supply chains in these countries within political, regulatory, and commercial dimensions. The goal is to offer insights for other developing countries which are pursuing or considering the same strategy. By analysing the causal dynamics that are in place in Bangladesh and Nigeria, it suggests measures that may improve gas-to-power supply chain performance. Finally, it discusses the extent to which the causal dynamics observed can be generalised to other countries. Full paper. [post_title] => Gas-to-Power Supply Chains in Developing Countries: Comparative Case Studies of Nigeria and Bangladesh [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => gas-power-supply-chains-developing-countries-comparative-case-studies-nigeria-bangladesh [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-03-09 13:50:05 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-03-09 13:50:05 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30167 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 12 [max_num_pages] => 0 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => 1 [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => 1 [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => 580bd265bcb92448ba12d5f9d12211cd [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) )

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