David Robinson

Senior Research Fellow

David Robinson is an economist who advises on public policy and corporate strategy, especially in relation to energy and climate change. His recent research includes analysis of the following issues, among others: responding to the European energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine; market design for the decarbonized electricity system of the future; efficient prices behind the consumer meter to support demand side flexibility; economic assessment of energy communities in Spain; policies to support electromobility in Peru; policies to replace coal with decarbonized energy resources and to develop demand side flexibility in China; and new business ventures to promote decarbonization. David runs his own consulting company, is an academic adviser to The Brattle Group, and was previously a director of NERA, where he was the co-chair of European Operations and of the Global Energy and Telecom Practices. He is a Member of the Climate Strategies network of researchers who work at the interface between science and policy to advance climate policy. He also worked at the International Energy Agency (IEA), and wrote his doctoral dissertation at the University of Oxford on the vertical disintegration of the international petroleum industry.

 

 

 

 

 

Areas of Expertise
Electricity and gas, Climate Change, Public Policy

For all non-OIES publications please click here

Contact

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                    [post_content] => This paper by David Robinson, Angel Arcos, Michael Tennican and Fernando Núnez offers an independent assessment of certain key economic effects of the Iberian Exception (IE), the common name for legal measures affecting the Iberian power market that were introduced in June 2022 by the Spanish and Portuguese governments.

The governments' stated aim was to reduce the major component of electricity prices for many Iberian consumers, a component which was indexed to Iberian wholesale power market spot prices that were rising alarmingly due to extremely tight international markets for natural gas. According to the Iberian governments, this objective was to be attained by terms of the IE that subsidize a reduction in wholesale power market prices, with the subsidy financed in part by a new element added to the bills of consumers benefiting from that wholesale price reduction. Another Spanish governmental aim was to reduce the Government’s published measure of inflation, which was linked to a regulated retail price indexed to Iberian wholesale spot power market prices.

The Spanish Government maintains that, during its first 100 days, the IE provided substantial benefits for consumers affected by the IE, which included over 10 million small consumers as well as many large ones. However, the authors of this study question that view. We argue that the effect of the IE on retail prices depends critically on the assumptions about what would have occurred in the absence of the IE, that is, in a counterfactual scenario. The Government’s counterfactual methodology ignores demand elasticity in Iberia and in France, and this inflates their estimate of immediate consumer benefits. Using hourly data on the wholesale electricity market for the first 100 days of the IE, this paper’s analysis of alternative counterfactuals that reflect the effects of demand elasticity shows substantially lower benefits of the IE for consumers than the Spanish Government methodology suggests. The analysis here suggests that affected consumers could have paid somewhat less for the energy component of their electricity bills in the first 100 days of the IE, had it not been introduced.

We also identify several other potential short- and long-term effects of the IE that deserve further study. These include increased margins for fossil-fired generators, reduced margins for some decarbonized inframarginal plant, heightened investor perceptions of regulatory risk, weakened incentives for efficient consumption, and higher carbon emissions and gas prices.
                    [post_title] => The Iberian Exception: An overview of its effects over its first 100 days
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                    [post_content] => Electricity market design has become a highly debated issue in recent times, especially in Europe, where the surge in wholesale electricity spot prices can be attributed to the excessively high costs of natural gas. Many people believe that the root cause lies in the market design's emphasis on determining a single market clearing price based on the most expensive resource needed to meet demand, often natural gas. In addition to the immediate energy crisis and short-term challenges, analysts are increasingly worried that the current market design, if continued, would drive down wholesale electricity prices to such low levels that new investments would become unprofitable, mainly due to the widespread adoption of zero-marginal-cost renewable electricity. The long-term consequences of this situation have now become a vital part of ongoing discussions in various regions, including the United Kingdom where the government has introduced the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA).

The articles presented in this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum delve into a debate surrounding the topic of electricity market design. Recognizing the pressing need to confront the dual challenges of the short-term energy crisis and the long-term imperative of decarbonization, the contributors engage in discussions to explore the various ways in which the electricity market can be reformed.
                    [post_title] => Electricity market design during the Energy Transition and the Energy Crisis - Issue 136
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                    [post_content] => 

The European energy price crisis that began with rising gas and electricity prices in 2021 turned into a security of fossil-fuel supply crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The combined price and security crises add urgency to the climate crisis that has to date been the primary motivator for the energy transition. The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) are scrambling to respond to these new crises, while using them as a sound further reason to accelerate the energy transition.

 

Fossil fuels will continue to be part of the European energy mix for many years. However, the energy transition means that vastly expanded amounts of green electric power generation and consumption will replace current fossil-fuel production and consumption. Energy security will increasingly depend on the central role that electricity will play in the decarbonized energy system.  To avoid or mitigate potential future problems concerning the reliability of electric power supply will require in-depth thinking on a redesign of current electricity markets. 

[post_title] => Current Energy Crises, the Energy Transition and the Design of Electricity Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => current-energy-crises-the-energy-transition-and-the-design-of-electricity-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-10 14:39:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-10 13:39:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=45158 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 41558 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2020-10-05 11:27:40 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-10-05 10:27:40 [post_content] => During the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, we have witnessed glimpses of what the future electricity system may bring, notably the rise of intermittent solar PV and wind energy as a share of total electricity generation. The recent outages in California have illustrated the absence of preparation to cope with the reduction of solar PV when the sun sets. Likewise, periods of abundance of renewables both there and in other countries lead to questions about a system’s ability to absorb renewables and the costs imposed to cope with the excess.This Comment poses a question: if these glimpses are reasonably accurate, what implications do they have for policy makers? The aim here is to reflect on these glimpses and propose a two-market approach that would help to address the challenge of integrating intermittent renewables, especially by encouraging flexible demand to match output from renewables. Since this approach would require fundamental change to existing markets, that might be too much to expect in the near term. However, we believe that experimenting with the introduction of individual elements of the two-market approach could still deliver considerable gains and would be much easier to introduce. One proposal is for governments that organize centralized auctions for renewables to use them to incentivize demand-side flexibility through supply contracts that mirror the generation contracts with renewable generators. [post_title] => Glimpses of the future electricity system? Demand flexibility and a proposal for a special auction [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => glimpses-of-the-future-electricity-system-demand-flexibility-and-a-proposal-for-a-special-auction [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-10-05 11:27:40 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-10-05 10:27:40 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=41558 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33042 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-11-19 11:41:35 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-11-19 11:41:35 [post_content] => The electricity consumer is critical to the success of decarbonization. Yet, the economic signals that consumers receive in many countries are likely to discourage efficient decisions and could slow decarbonization or unnecessarily raise the costs. This Insight emphasizes the importance of encouraging only efficient consumer decisions, in particular with respect to investment and use of distributed energy resources (DER) behind the meter (BTM). It focuses on eliminating existing price distortions in certain liberalized electricity markets in the European Union (EU) and on creating or changing markets to reflect new economic and technological conditions. [post_title] => Prices Behind the Meter: efficient economic signals to support decarbonization [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => prices-behind-the-meter-efficient-economic-signals-to-support-decarbonization [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-11-20 14:01:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-11-20 14:01:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33042 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31938 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-10-07 12:27:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-10-07 11:27:23 [post_content] => The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious decarbonization targets for 2050. Renewable electricity and electrification are the key drivers, but are not sufficient on their own to meet the targets. A number of countries expect decarbonized gas (e.g. renewable hydrogen and biomethane) to be part of a future decarbonized energy system. Within that context, this paper examines proposals, recently issued by Spain’s energy regulator (CNMC), to define the methodology for remunerating gas distribution and transmission networks, and LNG regasification terminals. Their proposals would reduce significantly the remuneration of these activities. Bearing in mind the objective of decarbonization, this paper analyzes key features of the proposals and concludes with recommendations. We suggest:
  • Adoption of a common methodology for remunerating new investment in gas and electricity infrastructure assets. The Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) approach is a suitable methodology, especially for high-risk investment to integrate hydrogen.
  • CNMC reconsideration of its proposals for existing assets. The aim should be to ensure that, even if remuneration is reduced to some extent, investors will still be compensated adequately and that the companies will continue to support the investments needed to digitalize processes, deliver natural gas and eventually deliver renewable gas where it is economic to do so. This is an important signal for current and future investors whose investments will be regulated by the CNMC.
  • Clarification of the methodology for remunerating renewable gas facilities. If renewable gas (especially hydrogen) requires access to regulated gas networks, the CNMC methodology must provide suitable incentives to invest in network expansion and upgrading, as required, as well as to maintain natural gas operations. Even if no decision is made in the short-term regarding hydrogen, it would be prudent to leave the door open, by making the regulation compatible with future decisions involving hydrogen development.
  • Consideration of potentially stranded assets. The CNMC and the Government should coordinate over the remuneration of infrastructure assets when national policy decisions may lead to the stranding of these assets.
  • Decarbonization of the energy system as a whole. The CNMC and the Government should consider how best to promote the decarbonization of the energy system as a whole, rather than its individual parts, and what role is to be played by regulated networks and by unregulated initiatives in competitive markets, especially for the development of hydrogen systems.
  [post_title] => The future of gas infrastructure remuneration in Spain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-future-of-gas-infrastructure-remuneration-in-spain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-10-07 12:27:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-10-07 11:27:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31938 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33480 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-06-06 11:36:50 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-06-06 10:36:50 [post_content] => As populations become increasingly concentrated in urban centres and megacities, and demands on transportation continue to grow, the question of how to mitigate the environmental footprint of these trends is ever more pressing. This comprehensive book demonstrates the potentially significant role of environmental taxation and other market-based instruments in meeting these challenges. Robinson, D., Llamas, P.L., López-Otero, X., and Rodrigues, R. (2019). ‘Fiscal policy for decarbonization of energy in Europe, with a focus on urban transport: case study and proposal for Spain’, in Villar Ezcurra, M. et al. (eds.), Environmental Fiscal Challenges for Cities and Transport (Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation, vol. XXI), Edward Elgar. [post_title] => Fiscal policy for decarbonization of energy in Europe, with a focus on urban transport: case study and proposal for Spain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => fiscal-policy-for-decarbonization-of-energy-in-europe-with-a-focus-on-urban-transport-case-study-and-proposal-for-spain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 11:40:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 11:40:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33480 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31512 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-04-10 10:43:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-04-10 09:43:32 [post_content] =>

This paper looks at the deployment of auctions in electricity systems, and in particular at the predominant form of auction currently in use: a ‘one-sided’ auction in which a central purchaser, usually acting as an agent of the government, acquires new capacity for the purposes of meeting carbon targets or securing reliability. The use of this particular form of the instrument has been spreading rapidly in many countries across the world to the extent that it may be regarded as normal practice in some contexts – such as the procurement of new conventional generation capacity and renewable energy sources – and that further extensions into other areas – like network expansion – have been proposed. However, the widespread use of auctions of this sort is a relatively recent phenomenon and it raises a number of questions.

•          How should we view the development?

•          Are auctions of this kind a useful market-based tool to complement other methods of resource development?

•          Are they a type of second best – a symptom of the fact that electricity markets themselves are broken and can no longer give appropriate signals?

This paper aims to discuss these general questions relating to the use of such auctions. It does not attempt to go into the details of central buyer auction design or to study particular uses of the auction tool in different countries. Nor does it explore or question the use of auctions by private buyers to acquire electricity. It concludes that, while auctions will certainly continue to have an important place in electricity, governments should be more cautious about their use and should be thinking about alternatives; these would include new energy market designs that reflect twenty-first century technologies and economics, especially those reflecting the high penetration of renewables and the more active participation of consumers. A key goal in developing markets for a sustainable future should be to empower consumers as far as possible – and ‘one-sided’ auctions, at least in their present form, are not necessarily the best tool for this purpose.

[post_title] => The Limits of Auctions: reflections on the role of central purchaser auctions for long-term commitments in electricity systems [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => limits-auctions-reflections-role-central-purchaser-auctions-long-term-commitments-electricity-systems [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-04-12 10:00:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-04-12 09:00:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31512 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31077 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-06-11 13:59:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-06-11 12:59:28 [post_content] => There is a broad consensus that penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will rise throughout the world, but great uncertainty as to the timing and extent. There is also a growing recognition that automated, shared and electric vehicles (SAEVs) will be an important part of the coming revolution in sustainable mobility. Particularly in combination, shared mobility, automation and electric powertrains can result in major reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation, as well as significantly less air pollution and greater social equality. This article adopts these views as a starting point. The central questions addressed here are: what will determine the speed and nature of EV deployment; what barriers could slow the process; and, more specifically, could the electricity system and its regulatory regime be barriers to EV penetration, or rather assist that penetration. The focus is mainly on Europe and on passenger light-duty vehicles, including battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EV’s (PHEVs) in cities. The central message is that, while electricity is obviously necessary for EV penetration, it is very unlikely to constitute a barrier to penetration, unless policy and regulation are badly designed or implemented. [post_title] => Electric vehicles and electricity [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => electric-vehicles-electricity [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-08-23 12:38:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-08-23 11:38:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31077 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30600 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-09-04 10:50:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-09-04 09:50:28 [post_content] => Decarbonization policy has focused thus far on low hanging fruit, especially energy efficiency and renewables. Attention will need to move to other sectors, especially transport and buildings, which together account for about 60% of energy-related carbon emissions in the EU. Consumers will be active participants and at the centre of this energy transition. This reinforces the importance of minimizing energy pricing distortions, including those due to fiscal policy. This report argues that fiscal policy may act as a barrier to the decarbonisation of transport and buildings. This is due to levies on electricity that have risen substantially since 2008, primarily but not exclusively to finance renewable power development whose costs could not be recovered through markets. The higher the penetration of renewable energy, the higher the levies on electricity and the less competitive it becomes by comparison to the fossil fuels. The report also argues that, even if the fiscal policy barrier were eliminated, electrification would be only one competing option among others. The report proposes guidelines for energy sector fiscal reform that will be aligned with efficient decarbonisation Fiscal policy should, inter alia: be technology neutral after internalizing environmental externalities; finance the extra cost of renewables and other public goods through government taxation raised in the least distorting ways consistent with distributional objectives; and be part of a comprehensive revenue-neutral fiscal reform. Fiscal policy is only one of the policy instruments that governments have at their disposal and it is often not the most important one. However, fiscal reform is a relatively easy and quick way of starting to move in the right direction and of reducing the risk of getting stuck with the wrong sort of investment that will lock in high carbon intensity. [post_title] => Fiscal Policy for Decarbonization of Energy in Europe [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => fiscal-policy-decarbonization-energy-europe [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 12:32:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 12:32:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30600 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30479 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-19 13:13:08 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-19 12:13:08 [post_content] => This comment discusses the significance of the US Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Although it is too early to predict the long-term implications for climate change of the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, it is argued that the decision is unlikely to have a major negative impact on the world’s prospects for addressing climate change, at least in the short term. Government support for the Paris Agreement outside the US appears strong and there is also support within the US at state and city levels of government, within the financial and corporate sector and from civil society. Furthermore, technological innovation and scale economies are rapidly driving down the cost of renewable energies, batteries, smart energy solutions and electric vehicles, thereby reducing the cost of decarbonisation. The recent decision however reflects a rejection of multilateral agreements and is an invitation for rethinking global governance and amounts to an invitation to China to play a more important role. [post_title] => The Significance of the US Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => significance-us-withdrawal-paris-agreement-climate-change [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-19 13:17:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-19 12:17:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30479 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30465 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-14 14:18:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-14 13:18:05 [post_content] => Electricity markets are broken; they no longer fulfil their primary functions of providing appropriate signals for producers and consumers.  The problem arises from a combination of changes in technology (from predominantly marginal cost plants to predominantly capital cost plants) and of policy (support for intermittent renewable plants) which undermine traditional market structures.  In the view of the authors, markets will require fundamental reform to resolve the problem.  Existing market structures are inevitably leading to greater central intervention – support for renewables and the creation of capacity markets.  There needs to be a shift in emphasis which will enable consumer preferences to be expressed clearly and drive overall market development.  The reforms needed will require not just a change in market design but also in consumer attitudes to electricity – this will necessitate a relatively simple and comprehensible basic offer at consumer level. Against this background the authors propose a new approach to market design which will enable intermittent renewable sources to be accommodated; maintain overall system reliability while enabling consumers to put a value on their own supply security; provide clear signals to generators for investment and operation; and provide an ‘exit strategy’ allowing government intervention to be limited in the long run to the setting of framework conditions only.  In the view of the authors, no other proposal put forward to date can meet all these objectives. [post_title] => The Decarbonised Electricity System of the Future: The 'Two Market' Approach [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => decarbonised-electricity-system-future-two-market-approach [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-15 09:38:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-15 08:38:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30465 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33506 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-06 12:56:51 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-06 11:56:51 [post_content] => The profound transformation of the European electricity system is putting into question the design of the electricity markets that emerged during the restructuring of the 1990s and early 2000s. The need for decarbonization and the wave of innovation in ICT are affecting the optimal functioning of those markets. New options, such as the ‘privatization’ of service reliability, are becoming a reality, while some of the solutions adopted in the past, such as reliance on day-ahead energy-only wholesale markets based on marginal pricing, are no longer sustainable. These changes call for a rethinking of the way markets are built within the European Union. This is a fundamental step which academics, practitioners, and policymakers have to make together if they want to provide the conditions for long-term investments, integrate a growing amount of renewable energy sources efficiently and securely, and ensure the active participation of customers and communities at the local level. Keay, M. and Robinson, D. (2017). ‘Market design for a decarbonised electricity market: the “two market” approach’, in Rossetto, N. (ed.), Design the Electricity Market(s) of the Future, proceedings from the Eurelectric-Florence School of Regulation Conference, 7 June 2017. [post_title] => Market design for a decarbonised electricity market: the “two market” approach [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-design-for-a-decarbonised-electricity-market-the-two-market-approach [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 12:58:41 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 12:58:41 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33506 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30254 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-04-03 09:26:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-03 08:26:19 [post_content] => In a recent paper we provide an extended comparison of the measures taken by the UK and Spain in support of the decarbonisation of their electricity sectors.  This short article draws on the results of that study. The background is that the EU is aiming for an Energy Union; member states have common targets; and the Commission is trying to harmonise policy approaches to issues like the decarbonisation of electricity.  So it might be expected that member states would all have very similar measures in place.  In fact, there are huge differences between countries.  This study compares the approaches in Spain and the UK in order to understand what works best and what lessons can be learned from their experience. It also includes an annex on the energy implications of Brexit. [post_title] => Managing Electricity Decarbonisation: learning from experience - the cases of the UK and Spain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => managing-electricity-decarbonisation-learning-experience-cases-uk-spain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 14:24:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 14:24:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30254 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33508 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-02-06 13:00:51 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-02-06 13:00:51 [post_content] => This report addresses two issues related to coal-fired generation: how selected countries in the European Union and North America are making the transition away from unabated coal-fired power, and what reforms could ease a similar transition in China. It concentrates on coal-fired generation, not on the mining of coal, its industrial use, or the political economy frictions related to closure of facilities that use coal. Robinson, D. and Li, X. (2017, February). Closing Coal in China: International Experiences to Inform Power Sector Reform, Sustainable Finance Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford. [post_title] => Closing Coal in China: International Experiences to Inform Power Sector Reform [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => closing-coal-in-china-international-experiences-to-inform-power-sector-reform [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 13:04:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 13:04:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33508 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [15] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27325 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-08-24 15:10:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-08-24 14:10:27 [post_content] => The major electricity companies (the ‘majors’) in Europe have not recovered from a significant decline in their combined market value that began in early 2008. If the causes are structural, as argued here, these companies may be unable or unwilling to finance the investments required to meet the EU policy goals of energy security, environmental sustainability, and acceptable costs. This research paper by David Robinson argues that the problems facing the European majors reflect a ‘scissors effect’, which has two interpretations. On the one hand, it is a dynamic process whereby certain revenue streams fall, while costs rise, literally cutting profitability. The scissors metaphor extends to a second interpretation: that profitability is being hit - or will be soon - both upstream and downstream. The paper emphasizes underlying structural trends (stagnant demand, decarbonization and more active consumer participation) and government intervention as causes of the scissors effect. Although the structural trends seem now to be irreversible, the future of the sector still depends importantly on government decisions. This paper argues that current electricity regulations and market design are unsustainable. To address this, it is necessary to clarify the respective roles of government and markets and to design regulations and markets for a decarbonized electricity model and for the transition to the new model. Where markets do have a role to play, it is essential that they be left to play that role. The proposal draws on the original spirit of liberalization, but reflects the importance of decarbonization and the technological changes that make active consumer participation in electricity markets a reality. While the majors have to rethink corporate and regulatory strategy, their first priority should be to engage in the debate about the future role of government and competitive markets. Executive Summary [post_title] => The Scissors Effect - How structural trends and government intervention are damaging the major European electricity companies and affecting consumers [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-scissors-effect-how-structural-trends-and-government-intervention-are-damaging-the-major-european-electricity-companies-and-affecting-consumers [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 09:39:29 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 09:39:29 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-scissors-effect-how-structural-trends-and-government-intervention-are-damaging-the-major-european-electricity-companies-and-affecting-consumers/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [16] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27371 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-02-04 10:43:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-02-04 10:43:19 [post_content] => The 20th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework on Climate Change (COP 20) recently concluded in Lima, Peru. It was the last COP before the Paris Climate Change Conference, to be held in December 2015, when the parties are expected to sign a universal agreement that would take effect from 2020. The first part of this article by David Robinson explains the pessimism about reaching a meaningful agreement in Paris, with a particular focus on mitigation. Part two summarizes the reasons why an agreement is widely anticipated in spite of this pessimism. Of course, the point is not just to reach an agreement and to let the negotiators declare victory, but to make a meaningful contribution to combatting climate change; part three of this article identifies some of the key negotiation issues that will determine the level of ambition, the structure of the agreement and, indeed, whether there will be any agreement at all. Part four identifies some of the initiatives that are required to bridge the gap between the mitigation called for by the science and the pledges that are expected in Paris. It argues that the currently low price of oil offers an opportunity for governments to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, introduce carbon taxes, and pay owners of fossil fuels to leave their resources in the ground; all tangible ways of combating climate change. However, successful de-carbonization also requires action by civil society and business, in particular technological innovation, improved energy efficiency, widespread implementation of low-carbon technologies, and the adoption of transformative and profitable low-carbon energy business models. [post_title] => Paris 2015 - just a first step [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => paris-2015-just-a-first-step [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:04:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:04:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/paris-2015-just-a-first-step/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [17] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27388 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-10-30 09:41:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-30 09:41:49 [post_content] => The European Union has decided its energy and climate goals for 2030, becoming the first major player in the international climate negotiations to make a commitment in advance of next year’s United Nations climate conference in Paris. Europe has thus maintained its leadership role in terms of being the first mover, but no longer clearly in terms of ambition. The compromises needed to get agreement within the 28-country organisation have produced a 2030 emissions reduction target that is only barely consistent with the bottom end of the 80-95 per cent range of emission cuts that industrialised countries are aiming to achieve by mid-century. EU leaders have also decided on a future loosening of the policy framework that has been driving their national renewable energy and energy efficiency programmes. If the EU has decided to rely in the next decade primarily on the single target of emissions reduction to achieve progress, it must reform its chosen instrument – the Emissions Trading System – to deliver this target. [post_title] => Energy and climate targets for 2030 - Europe takes its foot off the pedal [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-and-climate-targets-for-2030-europe-takes-its-foot-off-the-pedal [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:05:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:05:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/energy-and-climate-targets-for-2030-europe-takes-its-foot-off-the-pedal/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [18] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27412 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-07-07 11:10:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-07-07 10:10:05 [post_content] => On 2 June 2014 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published its proposed performance standards to reduce CO2 emissions from existing power stations. In 2012, these stations accounted for about 38.5% of US energy-related CO2 emissions, chiefly from coal.  To date, the EPA proposal is the most substantial federal policy initiative aimed at reducing CO2 emissions in the US.  However, other developments will also influence CO2 emissions from the power sector. In this paper, David Robinson places the proposed EPA regulations into their wider political and sectorial context. He analyses four determinants of the demand for coal and gas in the power sector, as well as the resulting CO2 emissions: the relative price of coal and natural gas; electricity demand; renewable power; and EPA regulations. There are four messages.  First, reductions in CO2 emissions from the US power sector are likely to be modest, at least from a European perspective. Coal and natural gas will together continue to provide over 60 per cent of US electricity until at least 2030.   Second, achieving EPA objectives for CO2 emissions reduction will be difficult, which partly explains why the targets are modest. There are barriers to reducing coal-based generation in the US, including the relatively low cost of coal and strong political support for coal in many states. Third, while the market share for natural gas will grow, its market in the power sector will be limited by rising natural gas prices, growth of renewables and flat or declining electricity demand.  Finally, absence of bipartisan support for federal action to tackle climate change raises doubts about the successful implementation of EPA regulations and weakens US credibility in global climate negotiations. [post_title] => US climate change policy and the power sector [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => us-climate-change-policy-and-the-power-sector [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 12:15:36 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 12:15:36 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/us-climate-change-policy-and-the-power-sector/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [19] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27450 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-12-23 15:38:43 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-12-23 15:38:43 [post_content] => Spain has earned a reputation for leadership in the development of renewables, especially wind and solar powered electricity. But draft legislation introduced last July is the latest in a series of regulatory reforms since 2010 that reduce revenues to existing renewable power generators and that end the previous system of support to new renewable generation. In this comment, David Robinson explains the background to the reform, which aims to stop the tariff deficit, which has reached €30 billion, from growing further. He argues that Spain’s problems in the electricity sector are an extreme and early reflection of structural problems related to EU energy and climate change policies.  Spain’s response addresses only the most visible evidence of the problems – the tariff deficit. However, the EU will soon need to address the bigger problems that lie beneath the surface. [post_title] => Pulling the Plug on Renewable Power in Spain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => pulling-the-plug-on-renewable-power-in-spain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:44:50 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:44:50 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/pulling-the-plug-on-renewable-power-in-spain/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [20] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27456 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-12-09 14:32:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-12-09 14:32:33 [post_content] => China's growing energy import dependence makes the economy more vulnerable to global energy market instability.  This is how the US felt after the Arab oil embargo.  Today, the US and China have reversed places.  China is now the world’s largest energy consumer and the country most dependent on energy imports, especially from the Middle East, while the US is on the way to becoming energy self-reliant.  How China deals with this will have a significant influence on global energy markets and climate change, and on international relations.  This set of slides examines China's energy demand, its growing reliance on energy imports and some possible implications for international energy markets and China's international relations.  The slides were presented to the Oil and Gas Network (NOG) in Stockholm in October 2013. [post_title] => China's growing energy demand - some international implications [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => chinas-growing-energy-demand-some-international-implications [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:43:43 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:43:43 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/chinas-growing-energy-demand-some-international-implications/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [21] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27471 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-07-12 13:55:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-07-12 12:55:34 [post_content] => On 25 June 2013, President Obama issued his Climate Action Plan.  This is his Administration’s best effort to tackle the issues, but it also reflects the inability to pass federal climate change legislation.  The absence of legislation will weaken US influence in key UNFCCC negotiations that are supposed to result in a global agreement by the end of 2015.  Furthermore, because the plan proposes regulations that are specific to individual technologies and even specific plants, it will raise the costs of tackling climate change in the US.  Indeed, delivering the most important measures in the President’s action plan will be slow and cannot be guaranteed. In particular, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) faces significant legal and political challenges to introduce carbon emission standards for existing coal-fired plants.  This uncertainty adds further to the costs of the proposed measures. This may be the best that the President can do in the current political climate, but it is still disappointing from the perspective of the scale of the challenges.  Nevertheless, the plan defines a US agenda for action to deal with climate change.  It sends important signals to the rest of the world, and gives the EU a reason to put climate change back on the list of policy priorities. [post_title] => President Obama’s Climate Action Plan [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => president-obamas-climate-action-plan [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:41:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:41:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/president-obamas-climate-action-plan/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [22] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27476 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-06-25 11:49:43 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-06-25 10:49:43 [post_content] => The US has substantially reduced its reliance on imported fossil fuel energy. This trend towards "energy independence" is much debated and has important implications for the world and specifically for China. International and Chinese experts debated North American, and especially US, energy developments and their implications at a recent round table conference in Beijing.  The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and the Centre for International Energy and Environment Strategy Studies of Renmin University (CIEESS) organised the conference, with the support of the British Embassy in Beijing. Dr David Robinson (OIES) and Dr. Xu Qinhua(CIEESS) summarise the proceedings. [post_title] => Implications for China of North American Energy Independence [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => implications-for-china-of-north-american-energy-independence [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:40:15 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:40:15 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/implications-for-china-of-north-american-energy-independence/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [23] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27481 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-06-06 10:28:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-06-06 09:28:33 [post_content] => Spain is living with a high penetration of intermittent renewable power from wind and solar PV. Other EU electricity markets will soon have to do the same, if they are not already doing so. This Comment summarizes a number of the challenges facing Spain as a result of this form of de-carbonization, and also considers the implications for the EU.  For each of the challenges, the Comment suggests possible policy responses.  The Spanish case reveals the need for a fundamental revision of European wholesale electricity markets to reflect the cost structures of de-carbonised  power.  It also highlights the need to reconsider European policies on climate change to enable markets to support innovation in low carbon technologies. [post_title] => Living with Intermittent Renewable Power - Challenges for Spain and the EU [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => living-with-intermittent-renewable-power-challenges-for-spain-and-the-eu [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:39:28 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:39:28 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/living-with-intermittent-renewable-power-challenges-for-spain-and-the-eu/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [24] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27492 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-03-04 10:53:46 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-03-04 10:53:46 [post_content] => There is a potential opening for federal climate change legislation in the US, but the political reality is against its passage in this Congress. This comment reviews President Obama's plans to address climate change, as expressed in his recent State of the Union Address. It concludes that, if climate change legislation cannot be passed, the federal government will adopt a series of regulatory measures (e.g. through the EPA), with uncertain implications for overall emissions, and that the US will not be in a strong position to convince other countries to act decisively to combat climate change. It also identifies the conditions that might eventually allow federal legislation to be passed. [post_title] => US Energy and Climate Change Policy - Obama's Second Term [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => us-energy-and-climate-change-policy-obamas-second-term [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:37:11 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:37:11 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/us-energy-and-climate-change-policy-obamas-second-term/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [25] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27512 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-11-09 16:27:45 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-11-09 16:27:45 [post_content] => Governments across the OECD are committed to ambitious reductions in CO2 emissions.  Electricity is central to this agenda as the sector where the earliest and steepest cuts will be sought.  A number of countries, like the UK, are already in the process of reforming their electricity markets in order to ensure the delivery of the huge quantities of low carbon investment which will be needed; these reforms have involved a more central role for the government in decision-making, and in underwriting investments.  The paper considers whether the role of market forces is inevitably going to be increasingly limited by the existence of rigorous environmental targets, and examines a number of  options which could still leave a significant degree of competition.  It also looks at the wider changes which will accompany decarbonisation of the sector, for instance the increasing importance of the demand-side and the need for further  changes in wholesale market structures.  It concludes that governments need to address the wide range of issues involved in a coherent manner and at an early stage if the process of decarbonisation is to be undertaken successfully. [post_title] => Decarbonisation of the electricity sector – is there still a place for markets? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => decarbonisation-of-the-electricity-sector-is-there-still-a-place-for-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 15:15:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 15:15:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/decarbonisation-of-the-electricity-sector-is-there-still-a-place-for-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [26] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28129 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-08-30 10:46:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-08-30 09:46:28 [post_content] => This report was supported by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Prosperity Fund for Latin America. It examines the feasibility of private investment in wind power in Colombia within the current regulatory framework.  It focuses especially on the regulatory methodology for estimating the "firm energy" that wind power plants are capable of providing in Colombia to back up hydro generation during extended periods of drought (El Niño weather events).  Our conclusion is that the current methodology probably underestimates wind's firm energy contribution, possibly by a substantial amount. This in turn means that wind power stations receive a lower firm energy payment than they should.  We consider this to be an important barrier to investment in wind power in Colombia. We recommend that the Colombian Government reconsider their methodology for estimating the firm energy capacity of wind power and of other (non hydro) sources of renewable power. [post_title] => Private Investment in Wind Power in Colombia [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => private-investment-in-wind-power-in-colombia-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:52:06 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:52:06 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/private-investment-in-wind-power-in-colombia-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [27] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27611 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2010-03-31 13:26:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-03-31 12:26:05 [post_content] => The objective of this Report is to explore the potential for addressing developing country greenhouse gas emissions at scale through bilateral ‘Joint Commitment Framework Agreements’ (JCFA). It focuses on the potential to reduce the growth of coal-based emissions in the Chinese power sector through large-scale collaboration between European and Chinese enterprises in the production of electricity from wind. The Report examines the proposition that under a Sino-European JCFA European companies will be more likely to collaborate with Chinese enterprises to transfer and develop low carbon technologies and know-how that will help to achieve jointly agreed carbon emission reductions in the Chinese power sector. [post_title] => Addressing Large Developing Country Emissions: The case for strategic Sino-European collaboration under joint commitments [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => addressing-large-developing-country-emissions-the-case-for-strategic-sino-european-collaboration-under-joint-commitments [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:17:40 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:17:40 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/addressing-large-developing-country-emissions-the-case-for-strategic-sino-european-collaboration-under-joint-commitments/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [28] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27648 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-03-02 17:03:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-03-02 17:03:58 [post_content] => US energy and climate change legislation will have a powerful influence on any global agreement replacing the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. Dr. David Robinson analyzes draft US legislation (specifically the Waxman Markey Bill) and argues that it will fail to promote an early transition to a low carbon economy mainly due to its exaggerated efforts to smooth the transition for the coal industry and its customers. He proposes amendments to the draft legislation. [post_title] => US Energy and Climate Legislation – The Big Deal [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => us-energy-and-climate-legislation-the-big-deal [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:52:38 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:52:38 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/us-energy-and-climate-legislation-the-big-deal/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 29 [current_post] => -1 [before_loop] => 1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 46690 [post_author] => 974 [post_date] => 2023-11-06 10:54:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2023-11-06 10:54:22 [post_content] => This paper by David Robinson, Angel Arcos, Michael Tennican and Fernando Núnez offers an independent assessment of certain key economic effects of the Iberian Exception (IE), the common name for legal measures affecting the Iberian power market that were introduced in June 2022 by the Spanish and Portuguese governments. The governments' stated aim was to reduce the major component of electricity prices for many Iberian consumers, a component which was indexed to Iberian wholesale power market spot prices that were rising alarmingly due to extremely tight international markets for natural gas. According to the Iberian governments, this objective was to be attained by terms of the IE that subsidize a reduction in wholesale power market prices, with the subsidy financed in part by a new element added to the bills of consumers benefiting from that wholesale price reduction. Another Spanish governmental aim was to reduce the Government’s published measure of inflation, which was linked to a regulated retail price indexed to Iberian wholesale spot power market prices. The Spanish Government maintains that, during its first 100 days, the IE provided substantial benefits for consumers affected by the IE, which included over 10 million small consumers as well as many large ones. However, the authors of this study question that view. We argue that the effect of the IE on retail prices depends critically on the assumptions about what would have occurred in the absence of the IE, that is, in a counterfactual scenario. The Government’s counterfactual methodology ignores demand elasticity in Iberia and in France, and this inflates their estimate of immediate consumer benefits. Using hourly data on the wholesale electricity market for the first 100 days of the IE, this paper’s analysis of alternative counterfactuals that reflect the effects of demand elasticity shows substantially lower benefits of the IE for consumers than the Spanish Government methodology suggests. The analysis here suggests that affected consumers could have paid somewhat less for the energy component of their electricity bills in the first 100 days of the IE, had it not been introduced. We also identify several other potential short- and long-term effects of the IE that deserve further study. These include increased margins for fossil-fired generators, reduced margins for some decarbonized inframarginal plant, heightened investor perceptions of regulatory risk, weakened incentives for efficient consumption, and higher carbon emissions and gas prices. [post_title] => The Iberian Exception: An overview of its effects over its first 100 days [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-iberian-exception-an-overview-of-its-effects-over-its-first-100-days [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2023-11-06 10:54:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2023-11-06 10:54:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=46690 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 29 [max_num_pages] => 0 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => 1 [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => [is_privacy_policy] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_favicon] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => 1 [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => cd54944b7347f0e11c113521631399de [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [allow_query_attachment_by_filename:protected] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) )

Latest Publications by David Robinson

Ongoing research by David Robinson