Howard Rogers

Distinguished Research Fellow

Howard Rogers joined the Institute in January 2009 and succeeded Jonathan Stern as Director of the Natural Gas Programme in October 2011, he was appointed Chairman and Senior Research Fellow of the Programme in October 2016 and Distinguished Fellow in November 2019. Prior to joining the Institute Howard was with BP for 29 years, mostly in business development, strategy, planning, mergers and acquisitions and negotiation roles in upstream oil and gas in European, North American, Middle East and FSU locations. In 1999 Howard joined BP’s Gas and Power division and in 2003 he became Head of Global Gas Fundamental Analysis. He has a degree in Chemical Engineering and is a Fellow of the Institution of Chemical Engineers.

Howard has published research papers and authored book chapters on LNG price arbitrage between the regional markets of Asia, Europe and North America, shale gas in the US and UK, The interaction between wind power generation and gas in the UK and the outlook for gas with CCS. More recently Howard and Jonathan Stern have jointly written papers on the transition to hub-based pricing in Europe and the changing roles and risks of key players and also on the challenges to JCC pricing in Asian LNG markets.

Howard enjoys the challenge of ensuring the Gas Programme identifies the key current and upcoming issues in natural gas, matching these with researchers and producing high quality publications. This is enhanced by an ongoing and dynamic interaction with programme sponsors and stakeholders.

Areas of Expertise
Global Natural Gas: supply/demand/price structures and competing fuels, LNG: value chain, market dynamics, price arbitrage, Europe: Regional knowledge on markets and gas supply

Contact

Tel: +44 (0)1483 592 729
Email: [email protected]

What is the current capacity for LNG transit through the Panama Canal and what is the reasonable expectation of increased capacity in the next 5 years?
What are the additional costs incurred for LNG carriers from the US to Asian markets if they have to seek alternative routes?
If there is a future bottleneck to LNG tradeflows via the Panama Canal, when is this likely to occur and what might be the consequences in terms of pricing?

[post_title] => Panama Canal and LNG: Congestion Ahead? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => panama-canal-lng-congestion-ahead [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-04-09 11:46:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-04-09 10:46:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30979 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30865 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-02-15 12:14:57 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-02-15 12:14:57 [post_content] => The cost of shipping LNG has always been an important element to include in the assessment of new LNG project breakeven economics, or in selecting the optimum destination for a spot cargo of LNG. This Energy Insight was prompted a perception that convenient rules of thumb for LNG transport costs were becoming outdated. Until recently, market perceptions were that the low charter rates, prevalent in 2015, 2016 and for the first half of 2017, would continue due to the apparent willingness of shipbuilders to add to the fleet of LNG carriers in excess of requirements. However, this paradigm has been challenged by the more than doubling of LNG carrier charter rates between July 2017 and December 2017. It appears that the high seasonal demand for LNG imports by China has strained whatever shipping-mile reserve existed in the industry. This Energy Insight provides the means by which more sustainable longer term shipping cost estimates can be derived. [post_title] => The LNG Shipping Forecast: costs rebounding, outlook uncertain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => lng-shipping-forecast-costs-rebounding-outlook-uncertain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-03-06 15:05:19 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-03-06 15:05:19 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30865 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30459 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-13 10:41:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-13 09:41:58 [post_content] => As described in a recent Comment (‘Feud Between Brothers: the GCC rift and implications for oil and gas markets’), the severing of diplomatic ties with Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, amid accusations of supporting extremism have prompted many to ponder the impact on oil and gas markets. This Comment examines the ongoing likely impact on gas markets in more detail. It is argued that the potential loss of 7.7 BCMA of exports of Qatari LNG to UAE and Egypt is not of concern. Both these importers participate in the LNG spot and short term market and would quickly find alternative suppliers; Qatar would quickly find other markets. The (unlikely) loss of the Dolphin pipeline supply of 17.7 BCMA in 2015 would be more serious. The UAE and Oman could cope by decreasing LNG exports and using underutilised UAE LNG import capacity to meet their domestic market requirements, but this could involve significant additional costs. This would also reduce LNG supplies to other world importers. This is less serious against a background of rapidly growing global LNG supply as new projects from the US, Australia and Russia come on stream – in 2017 an additional 30+ BCMA is expected. Any short-term impact would be met by increased flows of Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Routing LNG tankers from Qatar to Europe around the African Cape rather than the Suez Canal could add up to $0.5/mmbtu to Qatar’s transport cost and in the first instance encourage it to divert volumes to Asia. This would however depress Asian LNG spot prices and incentivise other exporters to target Europe rather than Asian spot markets. [post_title] => Qatar LNG: New trading patterns but no cause for alarm [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => qatar-lng-new-trading-patterns-no-cause-alarm [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-13 14:56:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-13 13:56:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30459 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30451 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-12 10:39:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-12 09:39:21 [post_content] => With European natural gas consumption having declined since the beginning of this decade it may seem strange to focus on transmission system bottlenecks in a regional market which, having seen dramatic expansion since its inception in the late 1960s, has at best only modest growth potential. Work by Beatrice Petrovich examining the price correlation of European gas trading hubs suggests that the capacity and contractual relationships of Europe’s transmission system lagged behind changing supply flow patterns and the responsiveness required to allow gas to flow freely in response to hub price supply signals in a liberalising market. Projecting forward to 2030 this paper, using the EWI TIGER model, looks at how bottlenecks may change under two scenarios based on high and low cases for LNG and Russian pipeline gas imports respectively, in the context of modest European gas demand growth. Bottlenecks are examined both in terms of LNG and pipeline import capacity at the European border and at critical interconnector points within Europe. This paper should be of interest at a strategic level for commercial participants in the gas market and also for regulators and system operators charged with ensuring that future infrastructure is in place to facilitate pan-European traded markets against a background of changing supply patterns. This paper is the product of excellent co-operation between OIES and ewi Energy Research and Scenarios. [post_title] => Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => future-european-gas-transmission-bottlenecks-differing-supply-demand-scenarios [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 14:19:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 14:19:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30451 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30416 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-05-30 11:48:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-05-30 10:48:41 [post_content] => Howard Rogers, Chairman, Natural Gas Research Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, reveals the relative strengths of different groups of players in today's LNG market particularly portfolio players vs other players. [post_title] => What are the relative strengths of the players in today's LNG market? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => relative-strengths-players-todays-lng-market [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-05-30 11:48:41 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-05-30 10:48:41 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30416 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30277 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-04-12 10:31:14 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-12 09:31:14 [post_content] => The recently announced intention by Qatar to lift its long-running moratorium on new LNG projects and to produce some 20 bcma of LNG in 5 to 7 years’ time is a highly significant development for the LNG industry. With its low-cost base and high condensate and LPG co-production, Qatar can compete with any of the established LNG suppliers (as well as Russian pipeline gas). This Comment assesses the implications for the market and addresses possible reasons for the timing of the announcement. The re-engagement of Qatar in the development of new LNG supplies is potentially good news for consumers but somewhat worrying for upstream players sitting on inherently high cost competing projects. [post_title] => Qatar Lifts its LNG Moratorium [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => qatar-lifts-lng-moratorium [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-04-12 10:31:14 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-04-12 09:31:14 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30277 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30272 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-04-10 14:34:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-10 13:34:20 [post_content] => Historically the cornerstone of the LNG industry has been the long-term oil indexed contract with restrictions on destination flexibility. However, market liberalisation in North America, the UK and Northwest continental Europe, the temptation to make contracts more flexible to capture arbitrage upside and large volumes of destination flexible US LNG under development - have encouraged the rise of ‘portfolio players’ applying advanced trading optimisation skills to their ‘webs’ of supply sources and destination markets to derive additional value through supplying non-supply source specific LNG to buyers. LNG traders have also developed a similar, more ‘asset-light’ version of this model. The paper argues that, despite the challenging period to 2021 with a soft market or ‘glut’ of LNG, the majors amongst the portfolio players are well placed for the next wave of new supply projects in the mid 2020s, due to the synergies from existing positions, advantaged cost of debt and more flexible contracting/sales and pricing strategies. With the uncertainties concerning future Asian LNG demand growth, the wane of oil indexation as a workable pricing mechanism in Asia and the perhaps more modest scale of the mid 2020s LNG supply growth wave, this could see non-Majors and energy sector banks ‘left on the starting blocks’ if they do not adapt to this transition. Executive Summary [post_title] => Does the Portfolio Business Model Spell the End of Long-Term Oil-Indexed LNG Contracts? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => portfolio-business-model-spell-end-long-term-oil-indexed-lng-contracts [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-04-10 14:34:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-04-10 13:34:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30272 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30152 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-02-27 11:58:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-02-27 11:58:56 [post_content] => Many readers will be familiar with Aesop’s Fable ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf’. The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When one actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep (and in some versions the boy) are eaten by the wolf. Since 2015 analysts and researchers have announced the imminent arrival of a surge of LNG into the European gas market, as supply projects from mainly Australia and the USA come onstream and LNG in excess of Asian requirements arrives at European import terminals. To date this has not happened, in fact 2016’s European region LNG imports were down 3.3% on 2015. This short paper examines the reasons for this and presents an updated view on the growth of global LNG supply and its impact on Europe under two Asian Demand Scenarios. Podcast with Howard Rogers [post_title] => The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of 'Crying Wolf?' [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => forthcoming-lng-supply-wave-case-crying-wolf [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-04-26 14:24:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-04-26 13:24:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30152 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29660 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-09-26 10:28:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-09-26 09:28:23 [post_content] => This paper brings together findings from previous OIES research on European gas hub price correlation by Beatrice Petrovich with demonstrated capability in European gas transmission system modelling by Harald Heckling and Florian Weiser at EWI Energy Research and Scenarios at the EWI Institute in Cologne. The paper compares the evidence for periodic bottlenecks in Europe’s gas transmission systems, indicated by price correlation de-linkage - and supporting evidence of apparent physical or contractual flow constraints - with the results obtained by ‘re-running history’ using the EWI TIGER model. The modelled view of history presumes ‘perfect market’ behaviour in respect of agents making the best use of infrastructure (‘lowest cost’ objective function) to move gas from A to B given data on tariff costs. A ‘tidy’ confirmation that modelled and actual flows were broadly in line would have been welcomed by those regulatory bodies tasked with achieving the Gas Target Model. The findings of this paper suggest that much more work is necessary to ensure that: critical route capacities are increased, capacities each side of specific interconnector points are better harmonised and that capacity held under long term contracts is made available on a shorter time horizon. The forensic investigation contained in this paper is to be highly commended and is an excellent starting point for regulatory bodies. [post_title] => European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER: investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => european-gas-grid-eye-tiger-investigating-bottlenecks-pipeline-flows-modelling-history [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 13:41:14 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 13:41:14 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29660 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29250 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-04-12 10:35:24 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-04-12 09:35:24 [post_content] => The LNG Industry has long regarded the Asian markets of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and India as high growth importing markets, willing to sign long term contracts with price terms linked to crude oil prices. The rebound in Asian LNG demand in 2010, following the post-financial crisis year of 2009, re-affirmed this paradigm with LNG markets further tightening following the Fukushima tragedy. The signal for new LNG supply projects could not have been clearer in 2010 and 2011. While the LNG supply projects triggered by such high demand growth and price signals were being constructed however, Asian demand for LNG began to wane. This appeared to be partly a consequence of mild winters but also LNG import prices and a general regional economic slowdown, perhaps led by China, also contributed. This paper seeks to provide a ‘ground level’ understanding of the existing, emerging and potential Asian LNG markets and highlights data sources from in-country government departments, often overlooked from a European or North American perspective. The picture presented in this paper is one of LNG having to shed its mantle of a premium fuel whose import price is linked to that of oil and ‘re-market’ itself as fuel which can contribute to a lower carbon future, by displacing coal in national energy mixes, and equally importantly reducing particulate emissions. This however calls for a radical renaissance in marketing by upstream LNG producers and strenuous efforts in cost reduction through competition in the liquefaction equipment sector. The paper provides a framework for analysing and monitoring these markets which, if not currently deemed to offer the high levels of future LNG demand anticipated from the standpoint of the early 2010s, will nevertheless constitute a key element of the global LNG balance for the foreseeable future. As such they will significantly impact the fundamentals and pricing dynamics of the increasingly ‘connected’ global regional gas markets. Executive Summary [post_title] => Asian LNG Demand: Key Drivers and Outlook [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => asian-lng-demand-key-drivers-outlook [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 14:02:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 14:02:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29250 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27331 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-07-10 14:53:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-07-10 13:53:13 [post_content] => Howard Rogers, Director, Natural Gas Research Programme, shares insights and conclusions on his paper published in early July 2015. To access the talk please click here. Please click here to access the accompanying slides. [post_title] => The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-impact-of-lower-gas-and-oil-prices-on-global-gas-and-lng-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:44:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:44:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-impact-of-lower-gas-and-oil-prices-on-global-gas-and-lng-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27335 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-07-06 13:16:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-07-06 12:16:13 [post_content] => The aftermath of warmer than normal 2013/2014 winters in Europe and Asia, evidence of slowing Asian LNG demand growth through 2014 and the collapse of the oil price in late 2014 has resulted in a painful ‘new normal’ for key players in the global gas system, specifically LNG project investors and Russia/Gazprom. At one level we can rationalise the slowdown in Asian LNG demand and stagnant European gas demand as having a direct causal impact on European hub and LNG spot prices. The oil price fall has in parallel brought oil-indexed gas and LNG contract price levels down to levels unimaginable just two years ago. With project economics challenged and cashflows crimped, investors in new gas supply projects, especially LNG, will inevitably hold back, cut costs and await a more positive market outlook. At a more fundamental level however, what we may be about to witness is a significant disruption to regional gas equilibria as a wave of new (Australian) LNG supply meets a slowing Asian market and a significant regional component (US/North America) re-connects with the global system in the form of 77 bcma (and counting) of new LNG export projects. Europe will be a passive recipient of excess supply at a time when its gas demand growth is at best tepid, but its import requirement may be rising due to declining domestic production. This paper addresses the following questions: 1. What has been the impact of lower oil and lower gas prices on existing and future gas and LNG projects? 2. What is the outlook for the period to 2030 for markets connected by flexible LNG supplies given the uncertainty in regional demand outlooks in the light of new LNG supply currently under construction? 3. What is the impact of the probable delay to new LNG project FIDs given demand uncertainties and the apparent need to move from oil indexation to new contract price formation structures ? 4. To what extent can Russia, using its market power in Europe to ‘control’ hub prices influence such outcomes? Through quantitative scenario analysis, the paper explores the major uncertainties in the global gas system connected by flexible LNG to 2030. The lack of clarity on Russia’s future preferred commercial behaviour however, adds a level of complexity most market participants would prefer to ignore. Gazprom is occupied on many fronts in both political and commercial spheres. At some point however the need to adopt a more market-oriented strategy is likely to rise on its list of priorities. While the timing of this is at present uncertain, the conclusions of this paper would strongly suggest that this is a development that players in the wider LNG-connected global system should be closely monitoring. Executive Summary [post_title] => The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-impact-of-lower-gas-and-oil-prices-on-global-gas-and-lng-markets-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 09:43:04 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 09:43:04 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-impact-of-lower-gas-and-oil-prices-on-global-gas-and-lng-markets-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27385 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-12-01 12:42:14 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-12-01 12:42:14 [post_content] => Hub pricing is dominant in north west European gas markets and is spreading to the south and east of the Continent. A new study by Howard Rogers and Jonathan Stern finds that the most important determinants of European hub prices will be global gas market dynamics. Changes in these dynamics will create price competition between LNG from a variety of sources (including North America) and Russian pipeline gas in Europe. Changes in prices and contracts in the new competitive environment of European gas markets have had significant impacts on the roles and risks of the major groups of European gas market players. Mid-stream energy trading companies have encountered the biggest problems because hub pricing has rendered their traditional business model (at least partially) unworkable, and an urgency to move to a hub-minus/hub-plus commercial model. Should this prove impossible, companies are likely to exit the natural gas sector with significant impacts on security of supply, and the likelihood that many existing long term contracts will be unable to survive into the 2020s. Executive Summary [post_title] => The Dynamics of a Liberalised European Gas Market - Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-dynamics-of-a-liberalised-european-gas-market-key-determinants-of-hub-prices-and-roles-and-risks-of-major-players [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 10:58:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 10:58:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-dynamics-of-a-liberalised-european-gas-market-key-determinants-of-hub-prices-and-roles-and-risks-of-major-players/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27389 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52 [post_content] => There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s. Countries in the Baltic region and south eastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination of LNG and pipeline gas from Azerbaijan. Similar measures could reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of central Europe and Turkey on Russian gas. However, Russian gas will be highly competitive with all other pipeline gas and LNG (including US LNG) supplies to Europe, and Gazprom’s market power to impact European hub prices may be considerable. Countries with strong geopolitical fears related to Russian gas dependence will need to either terminate, or not renew on expiry, their long term contracts with Gazprom. [post_title] => Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas - distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 11:01:21 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 11:01:21 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27427 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-03-10 12:29:50 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-03-10 12:29:50 [post_content] => The change of government in Kyiv, the Russian military action in Crimea, the diplomatic reaction by the western powers, and the perceived danger of war, clearly have implications for all economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, especially in the energy sphere. Russia supplies about 30% of Europe’s natural gas, and more than half of these volumes are still transported via Ukraine. In Ukraine, gas supply issues are combined with the economic upheavals aggravated by political crisis. As of March 10^th 2014, the most likely source of supply disruptions is the serious indebtedness of Naftogaz Ukrainy, which, despite clearing some of its $3.3 billion debt to Gazprom in late February, as of 7 March was in arrears to Gazprom by a sum of just under $2 billion. In previous Russo-Ukrainian gas disputes, such a build-up of debt has led to Gazprom cutting off deliveries to Ukrainian customers and the subsequent diversion of transit gas bound for Europe to consumption in Ukraine. This led in January 2009 to all westward deliveries of Russian gas, both to EU and Ukrainian destinations, being suspended for two weeks. If gas deliveries through Ukraine are halted the impact would be less serious than in 2009, because (i) the Nord Stream pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Germany without crossing Ukraine or Belarus, has been completed, and other interconnections have improved the situation in eastern Europe; and (ii) the economic situation, and the arrival of milder weather means that demand is relatively low. From Europe’s standpoint, commercial logic would suggest that support would be given to diversifying gas transit away from Ukraine, including regulatory support for the South Stream pipeline, which, if completed with four strings, should enable the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to be suspended completely by 2020. However, it is possible that a political move to minimise cooperation with Russia on energy issues in line with European governments’ views of the Russian action in Crimea – may prevail. In this case, the EU-Russian disputes over gas imports and regulation will worsen, with potentially negative consequences for South Stream. Moreover, European efforts to diversify away from Russian gas, the success of which has been limited in the past because of the economic costs, will be revived. [post_title] => What the Ukrainian crisis means for gas markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => what-the-ukrainian-crisis-means-for-gas-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:33:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:33:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/what-the-ukrainian-crisis-means-for-gas-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [15] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27436 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-02-03 11:33:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-02-03 11:33:27 [post_content] => Since 2000, diverging regional gas demand and production trends have induced a wider and more flexible network of trade-flows in an increasingly interconnected gas world, accelerated by unforeseen shocks in both supply and demand. North America and the UK entered the 2000s with liberalised markets and after many years of pro-competition EU regulatory initiatives, the dominance of oil-indexation in continental Europe began to wane in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In 2013 a combination of base price reductions and rebates brought Russian long term contract prices in competitive markets close to hub levels. The major lesson from North American and European gas markets is that financial distress of major utilities is transformative. This certainly pertains to the situation of Japan’s power generation companies who, excluding TEPCO, are currently losing in excess of $10 billion per year because of the need to import higher quantities of LNG (due to the shutdown of nuclear plant) at prices linked to crude at prices in excess of $100/bbl. Given the scale of the Asian importers existing oil-indexed LNG contracted portfolios (and hence the limited scope for adjusting price dynamics much before 2020) and the oil-indexed pricing expectations of non-US prospective suppliers, there is a developing mismatch in pricing aspirations not just for future, but also possibly for existing, contracts. The prospect of new supplies of US LNG post 2015 offers an alternative to the status quo in terms of pricing models. This paper argues however that rather than basing new contracts on a US price benchmark, Asian buyers should develop a price formation mechanism more attuned to national or regional fundamentals. The paper concludes that we may move from todays ‘contractual impasse’ scenario to either a ‘smooth contractual transition’ or, less desirable for all parties, a scenario described as the ‘contractual train wreck’. While the growth of an liquid LNG trading hub is seen as a key enabler to move to a more rational pricing reference point for Asian LNG contracts, the paper recognises the not insubstantial challenges in achieving this, calling for institutional and policy change on the part of buyers as well as sellers in this crucial, historically high growth, market segment. [post_title] => Challenges to JCC Pricing in Asian LNG Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => challenges-to-jcc-pricing-in-asian-lng-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-21 11:01:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-21 11:01:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/challenges-to-jcc-pricing-in-asian-lng-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [16] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27473 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-07-09 13:28:46 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-07-09 12:28:46 [post_content] => The shale gas phenomenon has transformed the US from prospective LNG importer to the current expectation of it becoming a major LNG exporter. In the UK the recent upgraded estimates by the British Geological Society of shale gas resources in the north of England have unleashed a wave of speculation in the media which includes an anticipation of lower prices and eliminating the need for natural gas imports. Drawing on US data, this Comment seeks to highlight the practicalities to be faced in developing the UK’s shale gas resources and addresses the drilling intensity and timescale required to achieve meaningful levels of production. It is deemed unlikely that UK shale gas development would have a discernible effect of wholesale gas prices. Whilst the increased fiscal contribution and balance of payments impact of shale gas would be beneficial at a national level, the real challenge will be that of gaining public acceptance in the locales where shale gas development will have a visual and traffic impact during the drilling phase. In the event that exploratory activities confirm the viability of UK shale gas plays the industry will need to engage in a public acceptance campaign based mainly on an offer of training, jobs and local economic stimulus if it is to succeed. [post_title] => UK Shale Gas – Hype, Reality and Difficult Questions [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => uk-shale-gas-hype-reality-and-difficult-questions [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:41:03 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:41:03 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/uk-shale-gas-hype-reality-and-difficult-questions/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [17] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27496 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-02-12 08:22:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-02-12 08:22:56 [post_content] => This energy comment is a response to a paper by Sergei Komlev, from the Contract Structuring and Pricing Directorate of Gazprom Export, which challenged the conclusions of previous OIES research on European gas pricing and suggested that we had “refused to engage constructively with those who offer opposing viewpoints.” In this comment, Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers set out the differences between their research and that of Sergei Komlev and respond to his criticisms. They conclude that contractual linkage of European natural gas prices to oil no longer has any market reality, and is only held in place by existing long-term contracts. By contrast they suggest that Komlev is refusing to recognize that the era of oil-linked gas pricing is drawing to a close in Europe (and is subject to increasingly serious challenge in Asia) and also refuses to accept that such changes represent a secular trend which will not be reversed. This is far from an academic argument: the extent to which Gazprom is willing to change its views on pricing will have a significant impact on Russian gas supplies to Europe, and hence on the future of the entire European gas market. [post_title] => The Transition to Hub-Based Pricing in Continental Europe - A Response to Sergei Komlev of Gazprom Export [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-transition-to-hub-based-pricing-in-continental-europe-a-response-to-sergei-komlev-of-gazprom-export [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:54:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:54:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-transition-to-hub-based-pricing-in-continental-europe-a-response-to-sergei-komlev-of-gazprom-export/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [18] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28125 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-09-13 14:10:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-09-13 13:10:49 [post_content] => This paper by Howard Rogers addresses the issue of the challenges in establishing Carbon Capture and Sequestration at a commercial scale in the power generation sector, especially as this has been repeatedly proposed as a key policy in furtherance of CO2 emission abatement in the last decade. For those who have become increasingly frustrated by claims about, rather than demonstrations of, the contribution which natural gas can make to a low carbon economy, it has become important to understand more of the detail behind the headlines of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). This paper shows that all aspects of the implementation of CCS projects are complex, albeit that the underlying technologies have been used individually in the petrochemical, refining and upstream industries for decades. Costs, and technical and commercial complexity go a long way towards explaining why there is no gas-fired power plant with CO2 capture and storage in operation or under construction anywhere in the world. The few gas-related CCS projects which exist mainly serve to process natural gas to grid specification and either store CO2 close to gas production sites, or use it for enhanced oil recovery. With slower than expected progress of other forms of power generation, UK policy makers have come to the realisation that gas-fired capacity will remain important for a considerable period of time. This in turn will mean that the question of whether CCS should be fitted (and retrofitted) to gas-fired power generation is likely to move higher up the UK’s climate policy agenda. Howard Rogers’ study demonstrates that, on paper, gas-fired generation with CCS can be more competitive than the low carbon generation options such as Offshore Wind, generally assumed to grow most significantly in the UK over the next decade but the commercial complexities of CCS projects set out in this paper, do not give cause for optimism about its future development, absent a clear and sustained commitment from government. It is no part of the OIES Gas Research Programme’s remit to promote natural gas, either in the UK or more generally. However, our research increasingly suggests that the likely future role of gas in energy balances has been, and continues to be, under-estimated in a range of countries, including perhaps until very recently, the UK. [post_title] => Gas with CCS in the UK - Waiting for Godot? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => gas-with-ccs-in-the-uk-waiting-for-godot-3 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-12-04 10:34:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-12-04 10:34:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/gas-with-ccs-in-the-uk-waiting-for-godot-3/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [19] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27554 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-01-09 09:57:35 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-01-09 09:57:35 [post_content] => In contrast to the majority of European gas analysis which has tended to concentrate on security issues narrowly defined as dependence on Russian gas supplies, this study shows how changes in North American gas supply and Asian gas demand over the next 15 years can create fundamentally different outcomes for European supply, demand and pricing. Using scenario analysis and a global gas model, Howard Rogers demonstrates that Europeans need to pay as much attention to what is happening in gas markets elsewhere in the world, as they do their own supply/demand dynamics. The study also examines the impact of different scenario outcomes in North America and Asia on Russian gas supply and pricing to Europe, showing that Gazprom also may need to make uncomfortable choices between European export volumes and prices over the next decade. [post_title] => The Impact of a Globalising Market on Future European Gas Supply and Pricing: the Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-impact-of-a-globalising-market-on-future-european-gas-supply-and-pricing-the-importance-of-asian-demand-and-north-american-supply [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-01-23 14:36:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-01-23 14:36:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-impact-of-a-globalising-market-on-future-european-gas-supply-and-pricing-the-importance-of-asian-demand-and-north-american-supply/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [20] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28217 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-08-04 14:55:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-08-04 13:55:22 [post_content] => This paper by Howard Rogers challenges the assumption of UK government policy papers and projections that, as a result of substantial increases in renewable and other low carbon generation capacity, the role of gas in the will decline rapidly over the next decade and beyond. The study suggests that gas will retain a central and undiminished role in the UK power generation sector. Although its role in the power generation sector may change, gas is likely to be particularly important in respect of ensuring security of supply in the context of increasing intermittent wind generation. As a result, additional gas storage will be needed and, given current market conditions, immediate attention needs to be devoted to creating incentives to ensure this will be provided. [post_title] => The Impact of Import Dependency and Wind Generation on UK Gas Demand and Security of Supply to 2025 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-impact-of-import-dependency-and-wind-generation-on-uk-gas-demand-and-security-of-supply-to-2025-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 15:05:09 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 15:05:09 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-impact-of-import-dependency-and-wind-generation-on-uk-gas-demand-and-security-of-supply-to-2025-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [21] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28231 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-03-31 13:11:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-03-31 12:11:41 [post_content] => This paper by Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers argue that Continental European gas markets are moving inexorably from oil-linked to hub-based pricing. Market prices for gas increasingly reflect a complex combination of national regional and global supply and demand for gas rather than oil products. An increasingly competitive European gas market created by third party access enforced by a combination of EU and national regulations means that any supplier refusing to supply gas at hub prices will lose customers. The commercial risk for utilities which are importing gas at oil-linked prices under long term contracts but forced to sell at market prices has become untenable. The European gas industry is in the early stages of a commercial paradigm shift away from oil-linked and towards hub-based pricing. This is likely to be accompanied by major changes in contractual arrangements including termination of many existing long term contracts probably involving significant litigation. [post_title] => The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-transition-to-hub-based-gas-pricing-in-continental-europe-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:09:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:09:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-transition-to-hub-based-gas-pricing-in-continental-europe-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [22] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28260 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2010-03-01 00:00:08 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-03-01 00:00:08 [post_content] => This paper is written at a time of significant change in the markets which import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for some or all of their natural gas requirements. In 2009, the weak natural gas demand (a consequence of the global economic recession) observed in key Asian LNG importing countries, Europe and North America provided an uncomfortable backdrop for still burgeoning US domestic gas production and the imminent surge in global LNG supply as liquefaction projects, which achieved financial sanction some 4 or 5 years previously, commenced production. [post_title] => LNG Trade-flows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and Discontinuities [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => lng-trade-flows-in-the-atlantic-basin-trends-and-discontinuities-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:04:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:04:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/lng-trade-flows-in-the-atlantic-basin-trends-and-discontinuities-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 23 [current_post] => -1 [before_loop] => 1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30979 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-04-09 11:46:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-04-09 10:46:23 [post_content] => With the ongoing expansion of US LNG exports from projects under construction and a long list of new US projects (yet to receive FID) potentially onstream in the early 2020s - the US could approach and perhaps exceed LNG output levels from Qatar and Australia. With no destination restrictions on US LNG cargoes, they are free to flow to importing markets which offer the best ‘netback’ whether on a spot, short term or medium term contractual basis. Clearly for Asia-bound US LNG cargoes, transiting the Panama Canal reduces voyage time and hence charter and fuel costs. The recent expansion of the Canal capacity has not been without problems and the prospect of the Panama Canal becoming a ‘bottleneck’ for LNG supply from Atlantic basin to Asian markets is therefore a very real possibility. This Energy Insight addresses the following questions:

What is the current capacity for LNG transit through the Panama Canal and what is the reasonable expectation of increased capacity in the next 5 years?
What are the additional costs incurred for LNG carriers from the US to Asian markets if they have to seek alternative routes?
If there is a future bottleneck to LNG tradeflows via the Panama Canal, when is this likely to occur and what might be the consequences in terms of pricing?

Latest Publications by Howard Rogers

09.04.18

Panama Canal and LNG: Congestion Ahead?

With the ongoing expansion of US LNG exports from projects under construction and a long list of new US projects (yet to receive FID) potentially onstream in the early 2020s – the US could approach and perhaps exceed LNG output levels from Qatar and Australia. With no destination restrictions on US LNG cargoes, they are […]

By: Howard Rogers

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15.02.18

The LNG Shipping Forecast: costs rebounding, outlook uncertain

The cost of shipping LNG has always been an important element to include in the assessment of new LNG project breakeven economics, or in selecting the optimum destination for a spot cargo of LNG. This Energy Insight was prompted a perception that convenient rules of thumb for LNG transport costs were becoming outdated. Until recently, […]

By: Howard Rogers

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13.06.17

Qatar LNG: New trading patterns but no cause for alarm

As described in a recent Comment (‘Feud Between Brothers: the GCC rift and implications for oil and gas markets’), the severing of diplomatic ties with Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, amid accusations of supporting extremism have prompted many to ponder the impact on oil and gas markets. This Comment examines the […]

By: Howard Rogers

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12.06.17

Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios

With European natural gas consumption having declined since the beginning of this decade it may seem strange to focus on transmission system bottlenecks in a regional market which, having seen dramatic expansion since its inception in the late 1960s, has at best only modest growth potential. Work by Beatrice Petrovich examining the price correlation of […]

By: Beatrice Petrovich Howard Rogers Harald Heckling Simon Schulte Florian Weiser

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30.05.17

What are the relative strengths of the players in today’s LNG market?

Howard Rogers, Chairman, Natural Gas Research Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, reveals the relative strengths of different groups of players in today’s LNG market particularly portfolio players vs other players.

By: Howard Rogers

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12.04.17

Qatar Lifts its LNG Moratorium

The recently announced intention by Qatar to lift its long-running moratorium on new LNG projects and to produce some 20 bcma of LNG in 5 to 7 years’ time is a highly significant development for the LNG industry. With its low-cost base and high condensate and LPG co-production, Qatar can compete with any of the […]

By: Howard Rogers

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10.04.17

Does the Portfolio Business Model Spell the End of Long-Term Oil-Indexed LNG Contracts?

Historically the cornerstone of the LNG industry has been the long-term oil indexed contract with restrictions on destination flexibility. However, market liberalisation in North America, the UK and Northwest continental Europe, the temptation to make contracts more flexible to capture arbitrage upside and large volumes of destination flexible US LNG under development – have encouraged […]

By: Howard Rogers

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27.02.17

The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of ‘Crying Wolf?’

Many readers will be familiar with Aesop’s Fable ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf’. The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When one actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep […]

By: Howard Rogers

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26.09.16

European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER: investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history

This paper brings together findings from previous OIES research on European gas hub price correlation by Beatrice Petrovich with demonstrated capability in European gas transmission system modelling by Harald Heckling and Florian Weiser at EWI Energy Research and Scenarios at the EWI Institute in Cologne. The paper compares the evidence for periodic bottlenecks in Europe’s […]

By: Beatrice Petrovich Howard Rogers Harald Heckling Florian Weiser

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12.04.16

Asian LNG Demand: Key Drivers and Outlook

The LNG Industry has long regarded the Asian markets of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and India as high growth importing markets, willing to sign long term contracts with price terms linked to crude oil prices. The rebound in Asian LNG demand in 2010, following the post-financial crisis year of 2009, re-affirmed this paradigm with […]

By: Howard Rogers

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10.07.15

The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets

Howard Rogers, Director, Natural Gas Research Programme, shares insights and conclusions on his paper published in early July 2015. To access the talk please click here. Please click here to access the accompanying slides.

By: Howard Rogers
06.07.15

The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets

The aftermath of warmer than normal 2013/2014 winters in Europe and Asia, evidence of slowing Asian LNG demand growth through 2014 and the collapse of the oil price in late 2014 has resulted in a painful ‘new normal’ for key players in the global gas system, specifically LNG project investors and Russia/Gazprom. At one level […]

By: Howard Rogers

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01.12.14

The Dynamics of a Liberalised European Gas Market – Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players

Hub pricing is dominant in north west European gas markets and is spreading to the south and east of the Continent. A new study by Howard Rogers and Jonathan Stern finds that the most important determinants of European hub prices will be global gas market dynamics. Changes in these dynamics will create price competition between […]

By: Jonathan Stern Howard Rogers

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27.10.14

Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas – distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics

There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s. Countries in the Baltic region and south eastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination […]

By: Jonathan Stern Katja Yafimava Howard Rogers Simon Pirani Laura El-Katiri Anouk Honoré James Henderson Elham Hassanzadeh Ralf Dickel

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10.03.14

What the Ukrainian crisis means for gas markets

The change of government in Kyiv, the Russian military action in Crimea, the diplomatic reaction by the western powers, and the perceived danger of war, clearly have implications for all economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, especially in the energy sphere. Russia supplies about 30% of Europe’s natural gas, and more than half of […]

By: Simon Pirani James Henderson Anouk Honoré Howard Rogers Katja Yafimava

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03.02.14

Challenges to JCC Pricing in Asian LNG Markets

Since 2000, diverging regional gas demand and production trends have induced a wider and more flexible network of trade-flows in an increasingly interconnected gas world, accelerated by unforeseen shocks in both supply and demand. North America and the UK entered the 2000s with liberalised markets and after many years of pro-competition EU regulatory initiatives, the […]

By: Howard Rogers Jonathan Stern

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09.07.13

UK Shale Gas – Hype, Reality and Difficult Questions

The shale gas phenomenon has transformed the US from prospective LNG importer to the current expectation of it becoming a major LNG exporter. In the UK the recent upgraded estimates by the British Geological Society of shale gas resources in the north of England have unleashed a wave of speculation in the media which includes […]

By: Howard Rogers

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12.02.13

The Transition to Hub-Based Pricing in Continental Europe – A Response to Sergei Komlev of Gazprom Export

This energy comment is a response to a paper by Sergei Komlev, from the Contract Structuring and Pricing Directorate of Gazprom Export, which challenged the conclusions of previous OIES research on European gas pricing and suggested that we had “refused to engage constructively with those who offer opposing viewpoints.” In this comment, Jonathan Stern and […]

By: Jonathan Stern Howard Rogers

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13.09.12

Gas with CCS in the UK – Waiting for Godot?

This paper by Howard Rogers addresses the issue of the challenges in establishing Carbon Capture and Sequestration at a commercial scale in the power generation sector, especially as this has been repeatedly proposed as a key policy in furtherance of CO2 emission abatement in the last decade. For those who have become increasingly frustrated by […]

By: Howard Rogers

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09.01.12

The Impact of a Globalising Market on Future European Gas Supply and Pricing: the Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply

In contrast to the majority of European gas analysis which has tended to concentrate on security issues narrowly defined as dependence on Russian gas supplies, this study shows how changes in North American gas supply and Asian gas demand over the next 15 years can create fundamentally different outcomes for European supply, demand and pricing. […]

By: Howard Rogers

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04.08.11

The Impact of Import Dependency and Wind Generation on UK Gas Demand and Security of Supply to 2025

This paper by Howard Rogers challenges the assumption of UK government policy papers and projections that, as a result of substantial increases in renewable and other low carbon generation capacity, the role of gas in the will decline rapidly over the next decade and beyond. The study suggests that gas will retain a central and […]

By: Howard Rogers

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31.03.11

The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe

This paper by Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers argue that Continental European gas markets are moving inexorably from oil-linked to hub-based pricing. Market prices for gas increasingly reflect a complex combination of national regional and global supply and demand for gas rather than oil products. An increasingly competitive European gas market created by third party […]

By: Jonathan Stern Howard Rogers

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01.03.10

LNG Trade-flows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and Discontinuities

This paper is written at a time of significant change in the markets which import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for some or all of their natural gas requirements. In 2009, the weak natural gas demand (a consequence of the global economic recession) observed in key Asian LNG importing countries, Europe and North America provided an […]

By: Howard Rogers

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Howard Rogers

Distinguished Research Fellow

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Latest Publications by Howard Rogers

Panama Canal and LNG: Congestion Ahead?

The LNG Shipping Forecast: costs rebounding, outlook uncertain

Qatar LNG: New trading patterns but no cause for alarm

Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios

What are the relative strengths of the players in today’s LNG market?

Qatar Lifts its LNG Moratorium

Does the Portfolio Business Model Spell the End of Long-Term Oil-Indexed LNG Contracts?

The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of ‘Crying Wolf?’

European gas grid through the eye of the TIGER: investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history

Asian LNG Demand: Key Drivers and Outlook

The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets

The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets

The Dynamics of a Liberalised European Gas Market – Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players

Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas – distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics

What the Ukrainian crisis means for gas markets

Challenges to JCC Pricing in Asian LNG Markets

UK Shale Gas – Hype, Reality and Difficult Questions

The Transition to Hub-Based Pricing in Continental Europe – A Response to Sergei Komlev of Gazprom Export

Gas with CCS in the UK – Waiting for Godot?

The Impact of a Globalising Market on Future European Gas Supply and Pricing: the Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply

The Impact of Import Dependency and Wind Generation on UK Gas Demand and Security of Supply to 2025

The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe

LNG Trade-flows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and Discontinuities

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