The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of ‘Crying Wolf?’
Many readers will be familiar with Aesop’s Fable ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf’. The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When one actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep (and in some versions the boy) are eaten by the wolf.
Since 2015 analysts and researchers have announced the imminent arrival of a surge of LNG into the European gas market, as supply projects from mainly Australia and the USA come onstream and LNG in excess of Asian requirements arrives at European import terminals. To date this has not happened, in fact 2016’s European region LNG imports were down 3.3% on 2015. This short paper examines the reasons for this and presents an updated view on the growth of global LNG supply and its impact on Europe under two Asian Demand Scenarios.
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