Harald Heckling

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                    [post_date] => 2017-06-12 10:39:21
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                    [post_content] => With European natural gas consumption having declined since the beginning of this decade it may seem strange to focus on transmission system bottlenecks in a regional market which, having seen dramatic expansion since its inception in the late 1960s, has at best only modest growth potential.

Work by Beatrice Petrovich examining the price correlation of European gas trading hubs suggests that the capacity and contractual relationships of Europe’s transmission system lagged behind changing supply flow patterns and the responsiveness required to allow gas to flow freely in response to hub price supply signals in a liberalising market.

Projecting forward to 2030 this paper, using the EWI TIGER model, looks at how bottlenecks may change under two scenarios based on high and low cases for LNG and Russian pipeline gas imports respectively, in the context of modest European gas demand growth. Bottlenecks are examined both in terms of LNG and pipeline import capacity at the European border and at critical interconnector points within Europe.

This paper should be of interest at a strategic level for commercial participants in the gas market and also for regulators and system operators charged with ensuring that future infrastructure is in place to facilitate pan-European traded markets against a background of changing supply patterns.

This paper is the product of excellent co-operation between OIES and ewi Energy Research and Scenarios.
                    [post_title] => Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios
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                    [post_content] => This paper brings together findings from previous OIES research on European gas hub price correlation by Beatrice Petrovich  with demonstrated capability in European gas transmission system modelling by Harald Heckling and Florian Weiser at EWI Energy Research and Scenarios at the EWI Institute in Cologne.

The paper compares the evidence for periodic bottlenecks in Europe’s gas transmission systems, indicated by price correlation de-linkage - and supporting  evidence of apparent physical or contractual flow constraints - with the results obtained by ‘re-running history’ using the EWI TIGER model.  The modelled view of history presumes ‘perfect market’ behaviour in respect of agents making the best use of infrastructure (‘lowest cost’ objective function) to move gas from A to B given data on tariff costs.

A ‘tidy’ confirmation that modelled and actual flows were broadly in line would have been welcomed by those regulatory bodies tasked with achieving the Gas Target Model.  The findings of this paper suggest that much more work is necessary to ensure that: critical route capacities are increased, capacities each side of specific interconnector points are better harmonised and that capacity held under long term contracts is made available on a shorter time horizon. The forensic investigation contained in this paper is to be highly commended and is an excellent starting point for regulatory bodies.
                    [post_title] => European gas grid  through the eye of the TIGER:  investigating bottlenecks in pipeline flows by modelling history
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Work by Beatrice Petrovich examining the price correlation of European gas trading hubs suggests that the capacity and contractual relationships of Europe’s transmission system lagged behind changing supply flow patterns and the responsiveness required to allow gas to flow freely in response to hub price supply signals in a liberalising market.

Projecting forward to 2030 this paper, using the EWI TIGER model, looks at how bottlenecks may change under two scenarios based on high and low cases for LNG and Russian pipeline gas imports respectively, in the context of modest European gas demand growth. Bottlenecks are examined both in terms of LNG and pipeline import capacity at the European border and at critical interconnector points within Europe.

This paper should be of interest at a strategic level for commercial participants in the gas market and also for regulators and system operators charged with ensuring that future infrastructure is in place to facilitate pan-European traded markets against a background of changing supply patterns.

This paper is the product of excellent co-operation between OIES and ewi Energy Research and Scenarios.
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Latest Publications by Harald Heckling

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    June 21st

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