The Impact of a Globalising Market on Future European Gas Supply and Pricing: the Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply

In contrast to the majority of European gas analysis which has tended to concentrate on security issues narrowly defined as dependence on Russian gas supplies, this study shows how changes in North American gas supply and Asian gas demand over the next 15 years can create fundamentally different outcomes for European supply, demand and pricing. Using scenario analysis and a global gas model, Howard Rogers demonstrates that Europeans need to pay as much attention to what is happening in gas markets elsewhere in the world, as they do their own supply/demand dynamics. The study also examines the impact of different scenario outcomes in North America and Asia on Russian gas supply and pricing to Europe, showing that Gazprom also may need to make uncomfortable choices between European export volumes and prices over the next decade.

By: Howard Rogers