Xin Li

Research Fellow

Xin Li was a Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies from 2013-2015. He holds a MSc in Management from Leeds University Business School and a PhD in Ecological Economy from the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds. Prior to joining the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, he worked as a Research Fellow at the Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds.

Contact

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                    [post_content] => Natural gas is expected to provide over 10% of China’s total primary energy consumption in 2020, which is a significant increase from 6.2% in 2014. A diverse range of factors can have impacts on China’s gas demand, including resource endowment, gas-access-rate (infrastructure), industry structure, urbanization, income, gas and alternative energy price, environmental awareness, government priorities, seasonal weather variations and so on. These factors can have different impact on the sectoral gas consumption at different locations. In order to understand the impact of these drivers on gas production and consumption of different provinces in China, we conduct case studies in five provinces, including the wealthy regions (Guangdong and Beijing), the gas producing regions (Sichuan and Shaanxi), and other regions (Shandong).

We found that energy consumption growth in China is likely to remain moderate in the next decade. The role that gas can play is likely to change from taking a share of the growing demand to replacing the existing energy supply from other sources (mainly other fossil fuels). In general, such replacement will depend on several factors, such as the relative price levels of gas compared to alternative energy sources, the environmental impacts, and whether there will be a sufficient and secure supply. At the sectoral level, one of the main factors that determine gas consumption in different regions is the structure of the regional economy. A regional economy where industry represents a higher proportion of total GDP tends to use a higher proportion of gas in industry, though its share in total gas consumption has been declining; whilst for a regional economy dominated by services, the use of gas in the residential and commercial sectors is more significant. Residential gas consumption is growing in most regions with the improving gas infrastructure. Together with the growing trend of urbanization, residential consumption represents a significant opportunity for the future growth of gas, especially in the wealthy coastal regions. Furthermore, power and heating use of gas is expected to grow in coastal regions due to government policies on limiting the use of coal in power generation and the increasing differences between peak and valley power demand.
                    [post_title] => Natural gas in China - a regional analysis
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                    [post_content] => The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (between 2006 and 2010) is significant for China’s economic development, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions. In 2006, China surpassed the USA to become the world’s largest CO2 emitter, which led to widespread discussions about China’s role in climate change negotiations. The global financial crisis in 2008 resulted in the one and only downturn in China’s exports since 2000. To sustain the country’s economic growth, the government made an investment of four trillion Yuan on infrastructure construction and social welfare improvements. In 2009, China became the greatest energy-consuming country in the world. Therefore, it is important to understand the main drivers of China’s energy consumption and CO2 emission growth in this period.

Using an input–output structural decomposition analysis, this paper analyses the key drivers of China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions growth between 2007 and 2010. The main findings of this research include: Growth in GDP per capita is the largest contributor to the growth of energy consumption and CO2 emissions between 2007 and 2010, while improvements in energy efficiency largely offset this growth; The four trillion Yuan stimulus package was successful in sustaining China’s economic growth at a relatively high level during the global financial crisis, but it came at a cost – in terms of soaring energy consumption and CO2 emissions; The economic rebalancing towards a consumption-led economy will need longer to reach fulfilment, as the process of investment-driven economic growth was reinforced during the period between 2007 and 2010; There are positive signals from household consumption during this period, as the share represented by service industries in total household consumption experienced significant growth.
                    [post_title] => Driving Forces of China's Energy and Emission Growths Between 2007 and 2010 - A Structural Decomposition Analysis
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                    [post_content] => Wind power in China has experienced significant growth since the beginning of this century. Total installed capacity has increased almost 300 fold – from 346 MW in 2000 to 91,413 MW in 2013. This rapid development however has created new set of challenges. In particular, wind power has not been fully integrated into the electricity system as a whole, as the growth of wind generation capacity has not been matched by a corresponding growth in transmission capacity. This has resulted in a substantial requirement to curtail excess wind power, leading to the loss of a significant proportion (approximately 20 per cent) of potential wind output. To help with this problem, a number of transmission routes are planned, in order to link the wind farms in the interior to load centres on the coast. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether the proposed expansion of the transmission system is adequate to accommodate the future growth of wind. It is also unclear whether the existing pricing systems for electricity itself, and for electricity transmission, reflect the real costs involved. The rapid growth of wind generation has led to a growing deficit in China’s renewable energy fund; this in turn is leading to uncertainty over payments to wind farm developers and turbine manufacturers. This paper highlights two options that could help the future development of wind power and its efficient integration into the electricity system: a more coordinated approach to the application of government policy in this area and the development of more market-based price signals in the power sector. Together these could provide a more coherent path towards the overall development of the power system and help secure the optimum contribution from wind power.

Executive Summary 
                    [post_title] => Decarbonizing China's power system with wind power - the past and the future
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            [post_content] => Natural gas is expected to provide over 10% of China’s total primary energy consumption in 2020, which is a significant increase from 6.2% in 2014. A diverse range of factors can have impacts on China’s gas demand, including resource endowment, gas-access-rate (infrastructure), industry structure, urbanization, income, gas and alternative energy price, environmental awareness, government priorities, seasonal weather variations and so on. These factors can have different impact on the sectoral gas consumption at different locations. In order to understand the impact of these drivers on gas production and consumption of different provinces in China, we conduct case studies in five provinces, including the wealthy regions (Guangdong and Beijing), the gas producing regions (Sichuan and Shaanxi), and other regions (Shandong).

We found that energy consumption growth in China is likely to remain moderate in the next decade. The role that gas can play is likely to change from taking a share of the growing demand to replacing the existing energy supply from other sources (mainly other fossil fuels). In general, such replacement will depend on several factors, such as the relative price levels of gas compared to alternative energy sources, the environmental impacts, and whether there will be a sufficient and secure supply. At the sectoral level, one of the main factors that determine gas consumption in different regions is the structure of the regional economy. A regional economy where industry represents a higher proportion of total GDP tends to use a higher proportion of gas in industry, though its share in total gas consumption has been declining; whilst for a regional economy dominated by services, the use of gas in the residential and commercial sectors is more significant. Residential gas consumption is growing in most regions with the improving gas infrastructure. Together with the growing trend of urbanization, residential consumption represents a significant opportunity for the future growth of gas, especially in the wealthy coastal regions. Furthermore, power and heating use of gas is expected to grow in coastal regions due to government policies on limiting the use of coal in power generation and the increasing differences between peak and valley power demand.
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