This OIES Energy Comment attempts to assess the impact of Q1 drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and to give some guidance for Q2 2024. Key takeaways: – We estimate that some 300 kb/d of crude processing was lost in 1Q24 on a gross basis, assuming unaffected refineries did not increase runs to offset losses […]
This study explores the structural shifts in Europe’s energy landscape following the loss of over one-third of its natural gas supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine, effectively severing the traditional natural gas trade “bridge” between Russia and Europe. Amidst Europe’s deep integration into global energy markets, this paper assesses the medium-term market and policy […]
During 2022, a key concern within the EU and the global gas market was how the market might cope with a complete shut-off of Russian gas pipeline exports to Europe if a ban was implemented on Gazprom sales. For most of the year, it appeared that the market was very stretched and that gas demand […]
The longer-term outlook for Russian oil production is uncertain. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 postulates a 2 million b/d drop for Russian oil production by 2030 in their STEPs scenario. However, this view ignores factors that have driven Russian oil production to date and an evaluation of how these might change in the future. […]
In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson interviews Vitaly Yermakov about his latest paper “Catch 22 for Russia Gas: plenty of capacity amid disappearing market,” which was published in late January. In the podcast they discuss the sharp decline in Russian gas production in 2022, reviewing both the overall numbers […]
In 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the unfolding of the de-facto trade war between the EU and Russia, Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe contracted sharply, by a staggering 90 bcm in a single year, raising questions about the prospects for Russia’s ability to balance its gas output in the near term and the risks […]
For many years Russian domination of SE Europe’s gas imports meant it was regarded as “Russia’s market”. In the last 3 years, however, much new infrastructure has been commissioned, which has enabled the region to diversify its import mix and significantly change its gas flow patterns. TAP brings in Azeri pipeline gas, start-up of Croatia […]
The Baltic gas market was, until eight years ago, entirely dependent on Russia for supplies. Even as recently as 2021, 74 per cent of the region’s 5.6bcm of gas demand was met by imports from Russia. However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, all four countries have announced the intention to give up […]
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to strongly impact international energy markets, posing severe challenges for energy importing countries. Much of the commentary and analysis has been focused on the consequences for, and reactions of, European nations and the European Union. Despite the fact that each region has its own specific dynamics, the global nature of […]
The flow of Russian pipeline gas to Europe has declined dramatically in the past three months. In particular, the curtailment of flows via Nord Stream have had an impact not just on Germany, where the pipeline makes landfall, but also on Gazprom’s counterparties in Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, and Italy – the latter three in particular […]
Following a number of requests, this latest OIES podcast covers the topic of the Indian oil market and more specifically the purchase by Indian refiners of discounted Russian crude following the decision of many western companies and countries to avoid Russia’s oil exports. James Henderson interviews Mohua Mukherjee about her thoughts on the current situation […]
On 8 March 2022, the European Commission published its communication “Joint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy”, referred to as “REPowerEU”. The communication was in immediate reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and had the objective to “make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030”. On […]