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[post_content] => On 8 October 2023, the Balticconnector pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia was ruptured by an anchor dragging along the seabed, and has been offline since then. According to the Finnish and Estonian transmission system operators (TSOs), the Balticconnector will be offline for repairs until at least April 2024. Despite losing access to Finland’s two LNG terminals, the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania remain relatively well supplied given their continued access to gas storage in Latvia and the Lithuanian LNG terminal at Klaipeda; the Finnish market, conversely, has required quick and drastic changes to adapt to the new supply situation.
This paper explores the impact of the outage on the Finnish and Baltic gas markets, focusing on Finland as the most-affected country in the region. The paper’s main contention is that through the quick actions of both traders and infrastructure operators, a worst-case scenario in which gas supply is so scarce that customers are cut off has likely been averted, as the sendout capacity at Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal is sufficient to cover peaks in demand. That said, there is very limited flexibility in the Finnish gas and power markets, meaning events such as ice buildup impeding the delivery of LNG or a nuclear outage straining the power system are likely to result in a sharp increase in prices, potentially forcing marginal users out of the market in order to bring the system back into balance.
[post_title] => Finland and the Baltics without the Balticconnector: market impact and outlook for the rest of winter 2023-24
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[post_date] => 2022-09-14 14:00:00
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[post_content] => The Baltic gas market was, until eight years ago, entirely dependent on Russia for supplies. Even as recently as 2021, 74 per cent of the region’s 5.6bcm of gas demand was met by imports from Russia. However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, all four countries have announced the intention to give up Russian gas, albeit with varying degrees of urgency. But a lack of connections to outside markets, and limitations on pipeline capacities in the region, mean that replacing Russian gas in the short term will be extremely difficult for the coming winter, particularly given such currently elevated gas prices. This paper examines the Baltic gas market and its attempts to replace Russian gas, with particular focus on pipeline capacities, LNG projects, and the turn to renewables and hydrogen. It argues that the region’s main alternative supply project — the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) to be placed either in Estonia or Finland — will be insufficient to meet peak demand in the winter, and that there are scant alternatives. Supply side constraints are worsened by Lithuania and Latvia’s decision to ban imports from Russia, which could cause large price spikes in the region. Either significant demand reduction, a resumption of Russian imports, or both will be necessary if the region is to get through the winter period avoiding a crisis. In the longer term, successful implementation of planned LNG infrastructure and pipeline capacity upgrades could allow for LNG to replace Russian gas more easily.
[post_title] => The Baltic gas market: a microcosm of Europe’s struggle to quit Russian gas
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