Gas Programme Publications

LNG Spot Price Forecasting and the Futures Curve

By: Nikolai Drahos

LNG spot prices in Asia have defied expectations over the past few years. During 2016 and 2017, LNG markets were widely expected to enter a period of overcapacity, resulting in a long period of low LNG spot prices in Asia. Instead, Asian LNG spot prices increased quickly due to surging demand, particularly in China, and […]

China: Growing import volumes of LNG highlight China’s energy import dependency

By: Stephen O'Sullivan

China’s gas demand looks set to remain relatively strong over the next several years, driven largely by government environmental policies.  Over the last decade, China’s gas demand has risen more than three-fold as its economy has grown and as the government has focused on increased gas use as a route to a cleaner environment in […]

Oxford Energy Podcast – Russia-Ukraine transit talks: the risks to gas in Europe

Trilateral talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine on gas transit through Ukraine after the expiry of the current transit contract on 1st January 2020 are due to resume in late May. Gazprom’s transit diversification projects, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, will not be operating at full capacity by that time and arrangements must […]

Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 6

By: Thierry Bros

Thanks to Argus Media, we updated our “LNG tightness” metric that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. A period of oversupply leads normally to behavioural changes to adapt to a new […]

Decarbonization and industrial demand for gas in Europe

By: Anouk Honoré

The EU is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80–95 per cent below 1990 levels. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of EU low-carbon policies, but if Europe is to meet its objectives, decarbonization efforts will need to expand to other sectors. Heat and transport are the next […]

Are Asian LNG Spot Prices Finally Decoupling from Oil?

By: Mike Fulwood

LNG spot prices in Asia have fallen sharply in the last 6 months as the supply coming on to the market has outstripped demand. With oil prices remaining above $70/b this has opened up a wide gap with oil linked long term contract prices. Are we seeing the beginning of a systematic decoupling of spot […]

Oxford Energy Podcast – Natural Gas Vehicles: are they running out of road?

By: OIES

The number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers.  NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available – and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in […]

Russia-Ukraine transit talks: the risks to gas in Europe

By: Simon Pirani

Trilateral talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine on gas transit through Ukraine after 1 January 2020 – that is, after the expiry of the current transit contract – are due to resume in late May. Gazprom’s transit diversification projects, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, will not be operating at full capacity by that […]

Oxford Energy Podcast – Narratives for Natural Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets

By: OIES

In this Podcast Jonathan Stern discusses the third paper in his narrative of on the Future of Gas, entitled “Narratives for Natural Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets?”. In conversation with David Ledesma, Professor Stern returns to the theme of decarbonisation in Europe and asserts that the time has now come for the gas industry […]

China Gas: Pipeline company reform has potential to stimulate gas demand but recent price cut unlikely to have any impact

By: Stephen O'Sullivan

China’s Five Year Plan envisages increased gas use at the expense of coal with the aim of improving the physical environment in the country.  But increased gas use depends both on government policy and on pricing.  Gas price reform has been a slow-moving work in progress.  Even the recent – very modest – cut in […]

A review of prospects for natural gas as a fuel in road transport

By: Chris N Le Fevre

The number of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers.  NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available – and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in […]

New Players New Models

By: David Ledesma , Mike Fulwood

The LNG business is in a period of considerable change as it moves from a structured to a traded market. The entry of new players has resulted in a more flexible value chain model, where the bilateral linkages between suppliers and buyers are no longer ‘fixed’. The increase in spot purchases and short-term trading has […]