OIES Podcast – The Outlook for Gas Demand in Europe
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her new Energy Insight on the outlook for gas demand in Europe. After starting with a little historical context, reviewing the reasons for strong demand growth in 2021 followed by the sharp decline in 2022, the discussion moves onto the key sectors and countries that were hit by the energy crisis in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Anouk then analyses the direction of demand in the first quarter of 2023 before looking ahead to the rest of the year. She gives her thoughts on how much industrial demand could rebound if prices remain low and how much may have been lost permanently before looking at the prospects for the power sector, discussing the potential impact of the return of nuclear power in France and the general expansion of renewables, which could offset the closure of other coal and nuclear plants. Finally she looks at the heating sector and considers the potential consequences of a return to average winter temperatures, following the very warm winter in 2022/23. She then concludes with a look ahead to 2030 and considers whether there is any chance of the REPowerEU targets for a sharp decline in gas demand being met.