The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term

This paper analyses the history of oil production in Russia since 2016, including the impact of the OPEC+ agreements, and then looks at the short-term outlook for the period to 2025 from existing assets and known new fields. It then assesses the potential of a number of new areas for production growth, namely enhanced production from existing assets using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques; opportunities in new regions of Russia outside the heartlands of West Siberia and European Russia; the upside from hard-to-recover oil, including shale, tight oil, and heavy oil deposits; the potential for increased output from Russia’s offshore areas; and the development of the huge resources in the Russian Arctic. We also consider the possible changes in the tax regime that might encourage development in all these areas, before providing conclusions on the likely drivers of Russian oil production through the next decade and beyond.

By: James Henderson , Ekaterina Grushevenko