Oil Publications

The results of OIES research is published as working papers, energy comments, presentations and articles as well as commercially published books and monographs. The views expressed in all OIES publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members.

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  • Oil Benchmarks: what next?

    By: Liz Bossley

    For the trading community, 2017’s ‘IP week’ in London (20-23 February) was not just concerned with the forecast level of crude oil prices, but about how those prices are expressed, assessed ​and reported. Once again the security of international oil price benchmarks is a significant cause for concern.  In this comment, Liz Bossley argues that […]

  • Russian Oil Production Outlook to 2020

    By: James Henderson , Ekaterina Grushevenko

    This paper, carried out as a joint piece of research by OIES and ERI RAS (the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences) assesses the prospects for Russian oil production to 2020 and beyond, and suggests that the history of steady growth seen over the past decade is set to continue. Brownfield decline […]

  • Upstream Investment in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities in a Lower Price Environment

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    This presentation, delivered at Chatham House, looks at the dynamics of investment in the Middle East’s oil and gas upstream sector following the recent fall in oil price. In contrast to most regions in the world that saw sharp cuts in capital expenditure, investment in the upstream oil and gas sector in the Middle East […]

  • Oil Price Paths in 2017: Is a Sustained Recovery of the Oil Price Looming?

    By: Andreas Economou , Bassam Fattouh , Paolo Agnolucci , Vincenzo De Lipsis

    This paper explores how the oil price path could evolve in 2017 by assessing the various oil price risks under alternative forecast scenarios pertaining to future market conditions. It is shown that even without the OPEC-non-OPEC output cut agreement in November 2016, the three-year long price fall would eventually have come to a halt and […]

  • The Phases of Saudi Oil Policy: What Next?

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    This presentation delivered at the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) analyses the main factors shaping Saudi oil policy and the various phases of the Kingdom’s oil policy since the 2008 financial crisis. It is possible to identify four such phases: 1) In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Saudi Arabia decided to cut output in the face of a temporary demand shock […]

  • Iranian Energy: a comeback with hurdles

    By: David Ramin Jalilvand

    One year ago, on 16 January 2016, the Iran nuclear deal was formally implemented. Officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal was concluded in July 2015 between Iran and the ‘E3+3’, which comprises France, Germany, and Great Britain, China, Russia, and the United States. In essence, the JCPOA allows for […]

  • Room for cynicism and hope in Russia’s deal with OPEC

    By: James Henderson

    Although relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia have improved since the debacle in Doha in April 2016, it is clear that both sides will be watching each other carefully over the next few months. The fact that both have made their own implementation of a production cut dependent on the performance of the other suggests that […]

  • China’s loans for oil: asset or liability?

    By: Michal Meidan

    China’s leaders have long been concerned with the strategic vulnerabilities associated with rising oil imports. In their efforts to hedge against these, Chinese policy banks have handed out loans that are repaid with oil. By 2015, repayment for these loans generated 1.4-1.6 mb/d of crude and fuel oil deliveries from Venezuela, Russia, Brazil, and Ecuador […]

  • India’s Upstream Revival – HELP or Hurdle?

    By: Anupama Sen

    Following several years of stagnation, India’s government is attempting to revive its upstream exploration sector through the launch of a new Hydrocarbon Exploration Licensing Policy (HELP), comprising a set of measures including: a single licence for conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons, open acreage licensing, a revenue sharing model, and commercial and marketing (pricing) freedom. The policy […]

  • Unravelling the US Shale Productivity Gains

    By: Trisha Curtis

    This paper seeks to assess the well productivity changes in US shale since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 by analysing the nature of these productivity gains through an assessment of the impact of cost cuts, efficiency gains, and technology advances on the performance of recently developed shale and tight oil wells.  The paper argues […]

  • OPEC Deal or No Deal? This is Not the Question

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Amrita Sen

    This comment argues that while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cooperate, this does not imply that the fundamentals of Saudi oil policy have necessarily changed nor that the kingdom would accept any deal irrespective of the key principles that have been guiding Saudi oil policy so far. Based on its historical record, it is […]

  • Can Iraqi oil production surprise again on the upside?

    By: Richard Mallinson

    Iraqi oil production outperformed expectations in 2015, after numerous years of disappointing growth. Iraqi production, including output from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, rose by 0.62 mb/d to above 3.9 mb/d in 2015, the fastest growth since 2004 when Iraq’s oil sector was recovering after the US invasion. The growth was even more impressive at points […]

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • Bassam Fattouh speaking in Abu Dhabi on the key trends shaping the oil market and the implications for the GCC https://t.co/DhJjiB0czd

    March 22nd

  • New publication: Russian LNG: Progress and delay in 2017 https://t.co/YIjjMgkv0n

    March 22nd

  • B Fattouh on the main factors shaping Saudi oil policy and the Kingdom’s oil policy since 2008 in Oil Magazine - https://t.co/Hs5Qx0lZCJ

    March 21st

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