OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 21 – Global Gas Markets

In the latest OIES podcast James Henderson discusses current gas market dynamics with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples in the light of the impact of the Russia Ukraine war. They start by assessing recent movements in prices, considering the differential between spot and month forward prices while also looking at the overall fall in price levels thanks to the current warm weather and the demand reduction caused by high prices and a change in consumer behaviours. Next they move onto an overall assessment of gas demand in Europe and the movements in supply sources, before looking at the level of gas in storage and the outlook for winter 2022/23. In particular they focus on the levels of potential drawdown in stocks and the potential implications for the gas market in 2023, concluding that a rapid and significant drawdown over the next 5 months would be difficult to replenish next summer. Finally, they consider the outlook for LNG supply in 2023 and the potential for a rebound in demand in Asia, and discuss the possible implications for availability of supply to Europe and other gas importing regions.