The Crude Oil Market in 2018 & 2019 – How Did We Get Here & What Next?
This presentation discusses the oil market outlook for 2018 and 2019. It outlines the main factors behind the rebalancing of the oil market, including stronger than expected global oil demand growth and strong OPEC cohesion (caused in part due to involuntary cuts). The presentation then analyses the main trends shaping oil price outcomes in the short-term, including prospects for the global economy amidst growing concerns about escalating trade tensions and the health of emerging economies, US shale supply dynamics in the face of infrastructure constraints, OPEC behaviour, the recent shifts in crude oil trade flows and geopolitical disruptions. The presentation concludes with an analysis of the balance of risks facing the oil market and how the disconnections between short-term and long-term expectations are clouding the oil price outlook.