Tag: US Shale

  • The Crude Oil Market in 2018 & 2019 – How Did We Get Here & What Next?

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    This presentation discusses the oil market outlook for 2018 and 2019. It outlines the main factors behind the rebalancing of the oil market, including stronger than expected global oil demand growth and strong OPEC cohesion (caused in part due to involuntary cuts). The presentation then analyses the main trends shaping oil price outcomes in the […]

  • The Oil Market’s Mixed Price Signals

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    Recent movements in oil prices, time spreads, and physical differentials have been sending some mixed signals both about current and long-term market fundamentals. This may reflect heightened uncertainty as well as a wide divergence of expectations about key factors shaping the oil market, both in the short-term and the medium-term, including the size of potential […]

  • Oil Supply Balances: The Four Cycles of the OPEC Oil Output Policy

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    OPEC exit strategy has been one of the key uncertainties engulfing the oil market. Most market focus has been on the level of inventories, as this is seen by many as a key indicator as to when OPEC may shift its current output policy. In this presentation, it is argued that the level of inventories, […]

  • Oil Price Paths in 2018: The Interplay between OPEC, US Shale and Supply Interruptions

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    2018 started on a positive note for oil markets with Brent prices breaking through $70 a barrel for a few days and all the key international crude oil benchmarks flipping into backwardation. Yet, there is still a wide uncertainty engulfing the oil market, with very divergent views among market observers about how the oil price […]

  • OPEC’s Hard Choices

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    Oil market sentiment has shifted considerably over the last few weeks. Brent is trading above $60 per barrel, the major benchmarks are in backwardation, stocks have been falling towards the five-year average, global oil demand remains strong, financial positioning is at record length, OPEC and non-OPEC compliance has been high, the additional Nigerian and Libyan […]

  • US Crude Exports – Gaining Ground

    By: Dominic Haywood

    US crude oil exports surged to a record high of 1.8 mb/d in October 2017, 1.2 mb/d higher y/y. A few months earlier, the market had fervently questioned the ability of the US to export more than 1.2 mb/d, suggesting capacity constraints would cap departures at this level and result in large inventory builds on […]

  • Completion Design Changes and the Impact on US Shale Well Productivity

    By: Trisha Curtis , Benjamin Montalbano

    The 2014 oil price downturn caused the US unconventional oil and gas industry to undertake an array of cost-cutting measures affecting both capital and operational expenditures. Focus shifted towards operational efficiency, well design, and the maximization of each dollar spent, and away from the gold rush mentality that had characterized the former $100/bl price environment. […]

  • The Phases of Saudi Oil Policy: What Next?

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    This presentation delivered at the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) analyses the main factors shaping Saudi oil policy and the various phases of the Kingdom’s oil policy since the 2008 financial crisis. It is possible to identify four such phases: 1) In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Saudi Arabia decided to cut output in the face of a temporary demand shock […]

  • Unravelling the US Shale Productivity Gains

    By: Trisha Curtis

    This paper seeks to assess the well productivity changes in US shale since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 by analysing the nature of these productivity gains through an assessment of the impact of cost cuts, efficiency gains, and technology advances on the performance of recently developed shale and tight oil wells.  The paper argues […]

  • Adjustment in the Oil Market: Structural, Cyclical or Both?

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    The sharp fall in the oil price has divided views about the nature of the latest oil price cycle. Some argue that the oil market has been subject to structural shocks that have created a ‘new global oil order’ and that we have entered a world of ‘low oil prices for much longer’. Others are […]

  • US Shale Oil Dynamics in a Low Price Environment

    By: Trisha Curtis

    One of the biggest unanswered questions facing the market is whether or not relatively high-cost US shale oil production can survive in a relatively low oil price environment (sub $60 per barrel). This is the first economic test of the shale oil renaissance. While shale production has thus far proved resilient (due to a combination […]

  • The New Economics of Oil

    By: Spencer Dale

    The oil market has changed very significantly over the past 10 to 15 years. Concerns about carbon emissions and climate change have increased materially. And, more importantly, the US shale revolution has introduced a new source of supply, with very different production and financing strcutures. In this comment, Spencer Dale, the Chief Economist of BP, […]

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