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[post_content] => The May 2021 edition of the Oxford Energy Forum covered the role of hydrogen in the energy transition in some detail, starting from an observation that the decarbonized energy system was expected to see an increase in the share of electricity in final consumption rising from its current 20 per cent to around 50 per cent by 2050. If anything, in the intervening 18 months, the perceived role of electricity has strengthened further, with advances in battery technology and rapid uptake of electric vehicles, such that the 2023 update to the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario sees the share of electricity in final consumption at 53 per cent, up slightly from the 49 per cent in the 2021 edition. There has been a corresponding slight reduction in the envisaged role of hydrogen, now seen to be at 8 per cent of final consumption by 2050, compared to a projection of 10 per cent previously. While such projections more than 25 years ahead are extremely uncertain, it remains clear that there will be several hard-to-abate sectors which are not suitable for electrification and where other decarbonization solutions will be required.
Hydrogen remains a key technology for such sectors along with other carbon management activities, such as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, whether that be from industrial emission sources or to drive carbon removals compensating either for historic emissions or those which cannot otherwise be avoided. In January 2022, OIES published an edition of the Forum examining trends in CCS and exploring the regulatory and commercial barriers limiting the deployment of CCS at large, including regional and country experiences, and the increasing role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in net-zero paths. In June 2022, this was followed by an issue of the Forum focused on carbon markets, evaluating global trends in compliance and voluntary market developments, including the role of complementary mechanisms such as carbon border adjustments.
As part of its increasing focus on the energy transition, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies established two additional research programmes in 2022, one on carbon management and one on hydrogen. For this edition of the Forum, it is therefore timely for these two programmes to come together to consider how carbon management and hydrogen can play a role in decarbonization of the energy system.
[post_title] => Carbon Management and Hydrogen: Potential solutions for hard-to-decarbonise sectors - Issue 138
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[post_content] => Carbon trading has long been identified as a key policy tool as part of a broader policy framework to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. With COP28 scheduled to take place in UAE later this year, there is much interest in carbon markets and the role of carbon removals. Multiple Article 6 memoranda of understanding (MOUs), which are the first step to allow international carbon trade, have been signed and many more are anticipated in the future.
However, universal acceptance of carbon trading as a key tool for raising climate ambitions remains a challenge. In this Energy Comment, the importance of carbon trading and the challenges it faces are presented including how carbon trading can help countries achieve net zero. In particular, based on a combined academic and industry review, this article focuses on the importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities and examines the role that carbon trading can play in unlocking their potential and highlighting, as a top priority, the need for carbon removal projects to be internationally recognized and supported particularly within Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The article concludes with key policy recommendations including:
- recognizing that trading of CDRs should be identified as one of the key levers to achieve decarbonization
- technology has an integral role to play towards improving the deployment of CDRs through carbon markets, and
- capacity building across stakeholders is key for further deployment.
[post_title] => How Carbon Trading Can Unlock Carbon Dioxide Removals
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[post_content] => Carbon pricing is a critical tool to help countries and companies achieve their climate targets by valuing the externality of carbon emissions. Carbon pricing exists as a penalty, subsidy, or valuation of a carbon sink with the key aim of delivering a price signal for investment in the reduction or the removal of carbon. While a simple concept, the universe of carbon pricing is complex due to the breadth of activities, the variety of applications, and further what is a myriad of combinations depending on geographical opportunity and political will. This Energy Insight describes some of the basic features of carbon markets, analyses some of the wider consequences and shows why having a one-size-fits-all carbon pricing mechanism – or a ‘single global carbon price’ – is not only not possible, but that heterogeneity in carbon markets is in fact needed, if they are to reach their promised potential.
More specifically, this paper reviews the different types of carbon pricing applications, who determines the specification of a carbon unit, what are the core specifications of a carbon unit, what various types of carbon units exist and how they vary in cost and scale, before discussing Article 6 and how it will underpin global carbon markets.
[post_title] => The creation of a global carbon market: A taxonomy of carbon pricing under Article 6
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[post_content] => Steelmaking is one of the two largest industrial contributors to climate change, accounting for 7-9% of global CO2 emissions. To achieve drastic emission reduction in the steel sector, integrating breakthrough low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and hydrogen (H2) solutions become necessary. However, the applicability of both solutions and their potential for lowering emissions hinges on several technical, economic and political factors. This paper sheds light on these factors and discusses the green steel ‘premium’ and which industries are likely to become early adopters of green steel products. This work also highlights the different forms of competition that greener steels would be subject to in the market, including implications on global trade, and how governments and the private sector can help mobilize investment into these solutions.
[post_title] => Stainless Green: Considerations for making green steel using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen (H2) solutions
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[post_content] => Canada’s position as a global leader in oil and gas production, as well as a proponent of emissions reduction, has led to significant support for the commercialization of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology. Viewed as the best way to reduce emissions from heavy industry, CCUS can also enable the value chain for technologies like direct air capture (DAC) which are seen as the future of carbon capture. Successful CCUS projects such as Shell’s Quest and the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line have demonstrated that the operational expertise exists in Canada. To support the broad adoption of this technology, the government has introduced two fiscal and regulatory levers – carbon pricing and a CCUS investment tax credit (ITC).
Federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) for carbon, introduced in 2018, will see the cost of CO2 escalate from CA$65/tCO2e in 2023 to CA$170/tCO2e by 2030. Despite some structural differences, there has been strong alignment on carbon pricing and CCUS incentives at the provincial and federal levels. In the province of Alberta, the likely hub of CCUS activity in Canada, the TIER regulation for industrial emitters has been deemed sufficient to avoid the federal large emitter program being applied as a backstop. On the other end of the carrot-stick dynamic, the ITC provides a rebate – approximately 20-30% – of project costs associated with CCUS implementation. The formation of the Pathways Alliance reflects the oilsands sector’s trend towards collaboration as a way of supporting the sector’s economic future. If successful, the alliance will see sharing of common costs like transportation and storage, thus reducing the risk for individual facilities and driving down the levelized cost of CCUS.
The ITC in combination with carbon pricing provides enough of an incentive for firms to deploy CCUS. It may not be as lucrative for investors as the 45Q tax credit in the United States, but it does offer long-term value to heavy emitters when avoided costs of carbon are considered. To sustain momentum and ensure project delivery, additional economic levers may need to be pulled to narrow the investment gap. More importantly, it is crucial that federal and provincial governments offer carbon price certainty, for example through carbon contracts for differences (CCfDs). In addition, whether through programs like TIER or the federal OBPS, tightening rates and the expiry term for offsets and credits may need to be adjusted as required to balance supply and demand. With the government’s carbon management strategy about to be released, there is CCUS momentum in Canada – delivering on it will require continued collaboration, project excellence and consistent fiscal and regulatory frameworks.
[post_title] => Scaling CCUS in Canada: An Assessment of Fiscal and Regulatory Frameworks
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[post_content] => Waste-to-energy (WtE) is a waste treatment process that incinerates waste to produce energy in the form of electricity and/or heat. WtE is considered one of the most environmentally-friendly methods of dealing with residual waste. The alternative to this process is waste dumping or landfilling, both of which lead to long-term adverse impacts on the environment. The capture of CO2 from WtE plants has received increasing attention over the past decade. Particularly, waste contains a substantial amount of biogenic carbon content (i.e., carbon which is naturally part of the carbon cycle), the capture and permanent removal of which leads to ‘negative emissions’. Considering the important role of carbon-negative solutions in achieving ambitious decarbonisation goals, retrofitting WtE plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be a major starting point.
This study assesses the potential for generating negative emissions from the European WtE fleet by assessing its retrofitability with CCS based on a number of criteria: i) an acceptable distance for CO2 transport between WtE plants and CCS clusters, hubs and CO2 storage sites, ii) availability of on-site space for CCS retrofit at the plant level, and iii) an appropriate plant size to ensure that CO2 capture is economically viable. Results show that if the entire existing European WtE fleet was retrofitted with CCS (around 100Mt of installed capacity), negative emissions in the range of -50.5 to - 70.6 MtCO2 can be generated per year. When CCS limitations are taken into account, these estimates are naturally reduced, with an achievable range between -20 to -30 MtCO2/a. Note that if waste that is currently mismanaged and/or is going to landfill is instead redirected towards WtE+CCS, higher negative emissions can be captured depending on the evolution of future waste management policies in Europe.
[post_title] => Waste Not, Want Not: Europe’s untapped potential to generate valuable negative emissions from waste-to-energy (WtE) using carbon capture technology
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[post_content] => If two different jurisdictions are involved in the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) chain, CO2 handling needs to be harmonized across borders and interface issues should be resolved (e.g. technical and operational standards, certification, transfer of ownership and risk, etc.). Similar to the imbalance which exists between the demand for fossil fuels between importing and exporting countries, suitable geological formations for CO2 storage may not exist in the highest-emitting countries, which calls for a need to export CO2 to countries with more suitable storage sites. It may also be in the interest of fossil fuel exporting countries to help their customers to dispose of CO2 stemming from imported hydrocarbons, as importing countries may have no other option due to the lack of sequestration potential (e.g. Japan). This will involve exporting and importing of CO2 across borders, relying on offshore transport by ships or via pipelines in most cases. Thus far, such examples include the transport of CO2 by onshore pipelines from the Boundary Dam project in Canada to the Weyburn project in the US, and the upcoming Longship project which envisages cross-border transport of CO2 via shipping from the UK and EU countries to Norway. All other projects so far have been within one jurisdiction. However, most recently (August 2022), Northern Lights signed a first-of-its-kind commercial agreement for cross-border CO2 capture and transport, where, from 2025, CO2 will be captured, compressed and liquified in the Netherlands, to be transported and stored in Norway. It is expected that other similar ventures will be established, making the publication of this study all the more timely.
This paper appraises a specific case study of cross-border CO2 transport from Germany to Norway. It is argued that the opportunity offered by Norway to sequester large volumes of CO2 under its shelf in the North Sea is one that Germany should use to meet its ambitious net-zero goal for 2045. While the infrastructure needed on both sides requires vast investments, coordination and regulatory and legal efforts, endeavours of comparable scale have been achieved by cooperation between both countries in the past such as the successful development of the Troll gas export project and the infrastructure linked to it both offshore and onshore and the development of its market in less than 20 years. One important conclusion is the need to develop a joint vision on the necessary development in the short time (and the limited size of the CO2 budget) left, and to create procedures and institutions needed for cooperation and coordination.
[post_title] => Cross-border cooperation on CO2 transport and sequestration: The case of Germany and Norway
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[post_content] => This paper aims to examine consumer behaviour towards, and the willingness to adopt, ‘green steel’ in the automotive sector. Semi-structured interviews were held with experts from global, regional and country-specific industry associations and automakers. This paper appraises potential demand for green steel within different vehicle types (based both on size and powertrain) and shows that manufacturers of electric heavy-duty vehicles are most likely to be the first adopters of green steel. A case for green advanced higher-strength steels (AHSS) can also be made in light-duty passenger vehicles, which may mitigate competition from alternative lightweight materials in terms of cost and greenness (depending on source and utilization regions). This work emphasizes a need to revisit current CO2 performance regulations, engage in educational green marketing campaigns, and explore innovative market-based mechanisms to bridge the gap between relatively-low carbon abatement costs of steelmaking and high abatement costs of vehicle manufacturing.
[post_title] => Steeling the race: ‘Green steel’ as the new clean material in the automotive sector
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[post_content] => The May 2021 edition of the Oxford Energy Forum covered the role of hydrogen in the energy transition in some detail, starting from an observation that the decarbonized energy system was expected to see an increase in the share of electricity in final consumption rising from its current 20 per cent to around 50 per cent by 2050. If anything, in the intervening 18 months, the perceived role of electricity has strengthened further, with advances in battery technology and rapid uptake of electric vehicles, such that the 2023 update to the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario sees the share of electricity in final consumption at 53 per cent, up slightly from the 49 per cent in the 2021 edition. There has been a corresponding slight reduction in the envisaged role of hydrogen, now seen to be at 8 per cent of final consumption by 2050, compared to a projection of 10 per cent previously. While such projections more than 25 years ahead are extremely uncertain, it remains clear that there will be several hard-to-abate sectors which are not suitable for electrification and where other decarbonization solutions will be required.
Hydrogen remains a key technology for such sectors along with other carbon management activities, such as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, whether that be from industrial emission sources or to drive carbon removals compensating either for historic emissions or those which cannot otherwise be avoided. In January 2022, OIES published an edition of the Forum examining trends in CCS and exploring the regulatory and commercial barriers limiting the deployment of CCS at large, including regional and country experiences, and the increasing role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in net-zero paths. In June 2022, this was followed by an issue of the Forum focused on carbon markets, evaluating global trends in compliance and voluntary market developments, including the role of complementary mechanisms such as carbon border adjustments.
As part of its increasing focus on the energy transition, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies established two additional research programmes in 2022, one on carbon management and one on hydrogen. For this edition of the Forum, it is therefore timely for these two programmes to come together to consider how carbon management and hydrogen can play a role in decarbonization of the energy system.
[post_title] => Carbon Management and Hydrogen: Potential solutions for hard-to-decarbonise sectors - Issue 138
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[allow_query_attachment_by_filename:protected] =>
[stopwords:WP_Query:private] =>
[compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array
(
[0] => query_vars_hash
[1] => query_vars_changed
)
[compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array
(
[0] => init_query_flags
[1] => parse_tax_query
)
)