This OIES Energy Comment attempts to assess the impact of Q1 drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and to give some guidance for Q2 2024. Key takeaways: – We estimate that some 300 kb/d of crude processing was lost in 1Q24 on a gross basis, assuming unaffected refineries did not increase runs to offset losses […]
In this latest podcast from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Vitaly Yermakov about his March report ‘Follow the Money: Understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues’ which tracks hydrocarbon export revenues and the significant part they play in public finances. Russia’s oil and gas revenues have proven volatile in recent years – on top […]
This study explores the structural shifts in Europe’s energy landscape following the loss of over one-third of its natural gas supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine, effectively severing the traditional natural gas trade “bridge” between Russia and Europe. Amidst Europe’s deep integration into global energy markets, this paper assesses the medium-term market and policy […]
Oil and gas revenues have underpinned the Russian economy for decades. As a result, they are an obvious target for sanctions from countries wishing to punish Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the impact of hydrocarbons from Russia on the world energy market is so […]
Revenues from Russia’s oil and gas industry account for between 30 to 50 per cent of total federal budget revenues over the past decade, making them the most important single source of cash for the Kremlin. The Russian oil and gas sector contributes about 20 per cent of the country’s GDP on average, with wide […]
In this podcast Michal Meidan talks with Neil Beveridge and Sergey Vakulenko about the role of gas in China’s energy mix and Russia’s evolving energy ties with China. Beveridge begins with a discussion of the weakness in China’s gas consumption in 2022 and the extent to which it will shape the future trajectory. He outlines […]
During 2022, a key concern within the EU and the global gas market was how the market might cope with a complete shut-off of Russian gas pipeline exports to Europe if a ban was implemented on Gazprom sales. For most of the year, it appeared that the market was very stretched and that gas demand […]
The longer-term outlook for Russian oil production is uncertain. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 postulates a 2 million b/d drop for Russian oil production by 2030 in their STEPs scenario. However, this view ignores factors that have driven Russian oil production to date and an evaluation of how these might change in the future. […]
In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson interviews Vitaly Yermakov about his latest paper “Catch 22 for Russia Gas: plenty of capacity amid disappearing market,” which was published in late January. In the podcast they discuss the sharp decline in Russian gas production in 2022, reviewing both the overall numbers […]
In 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the unfolding of the de-facto trade war between the EU and Russia, Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe contracted sharply, by a staggering 90 bcm in a single year, raising questions about the prospects for Russia’s ability to balance its gas output in the near term and the risks […]
For many years Russian domination of SE Europe’s gas imports meant it was regarded as “Russia’s market”. In the last 3 years, however, much new infrastructure has been commissioned, which has enabled the region to diversify its import mix and significantly change its gas flow patterns. TAP brings in Azeri pipeline gas, start-up of Croatia […]
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the key developments in the European gas market over the past few weeks. They discuss recent price movements and the impact of cold weather finally arriving in Europe, and also look at the prospect for Russian flows being cut further […]