Outlook for Competitive LNG Supply

Over the last six months, LNG Canada and Golden Pass LNG final investment decisions committed nearly 30 Mtpa of new LNG supply capacity surpassing all the new LNG supply committed over the entire period 2015-17. Expectations for 2019-20 involve a record number of new LNG supply projects reaching FID. This paper provides an overview covering ~300 Mtpa of LNG projects seeking a FID over the next two years, selects five promising areas (Mozambique, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, and the United States) for potential new LNG FIDs, assesses indicative upstream gas supply costs, reviews long term plant liquefaction cost trends, estimates LNG shipping costs post IMO 2020 to reveal the potential competitiveness of LNG projects in 2025.  New potential LNG supply projects are tested for high-income and low-income markets to see how well they meet the challenges facing the future of natural gas, and whether affordability becomes a critical issue before emissions make it unburnable.

By: Claudio Steuer