Not all oil supply shocks are alike either – Disentangling the supply determinant
Analysis of oil price shocks using fundamental measures has for years puzzled researchers. Recent theoretical and empirical work has made considerable improvements on how to model the global oil market. Yet, many studies document a decrease in the explanatory ability of the supply side of the market, as there appears little evidence that oil supply shocks have historically been a key determinant of the oil price. This comment focuses on the underlying specifications of the supply determinant and predicts that the most important channel by which oil supply affects the price of oil is through shocks to the available operable capacity in crude oil production, relative to demand, as a consequence of the normal functioning of the global oil market.
The full OIES paper that accompanies this comment can be found here.