Paul Segal

Research Associate

Paul Segal, Research Associate, is senior lecture in economics at the International Development Institute, King’s College London. He works on economic development, the distribution of natural resource revenues, and the macroeconomics of resource-rich countries. He completed his DPhil in Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford, in 2006, having previously been a consultant economist at the UNDP in New York, a research fellow at Harvard University, and a lecturer in economics at the University of Sussex. He has been a visiting scholar at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas in Mexico City.

Anatomy of an Oil-Based Welfare State: Rent Distribution in Kuwait, with Bassam Fattouh and Laura El-Katiri, in David Held and Kristian Ulrichsen (eds.), The Transformation of the Gulf States: Politics, Economics and the Global Order, forthcoming 2011, Routledge.

Also published as an LSE Research Paper, Anatomy of an oil-based welfare state: Rent distribution in Kuwait .

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                    [post_content] => Natural resource revenues differ from other government revenues both in their time profile, and in their political and legal status: they are volatile and exhaustible, and belong to all citizens of the country in which they are located. This paper discusses the theory of natural resource revenues and examines expenditure practices in a range of resource-rich countries. It considers both the distributional impact and the efficiency of expenditure policies, focusing on the extent to which they succeed in providing all citizens with their share of the benefits due to natural resources.
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                    [post_content] => This paper suggests a new approach to analysing the distribution of natural resource revenues and applies it to the case of Mexico. It defines a natural resource entitlement as a citizen’s per capita share of their country’s natural resource rents. The main finding is that, according to official estimates, Mexican fiscal policy transfers oil entitlements from the bottom 90 percent of the population to the top 10 percent of the population. This implies that, although fiscal policy is progressive relative to market income, it is regressive once oil entitlements are taken into account. I consider a fiscal reform that would ensure that every citizen received their oil entitlement, and in doing so would eliminate extreme poverty.
                    [post_title] => Fiscal Policy and Natural Resource Entitlements: Who Benefits from Mexican Oil?
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                    [post_content] => In 2004 a large discovery of oil was made in Rajasthan, a relatively poor state in north-west India. Oil began to flow in 2009. The estimated total hydrocarbons resource base in Rajasthan is 6.5 billion barrels, and the fields are estimated to have the potential to reach output levels of over 200,000 barrels of oil per day. The quantities of oil that are expected to be produced, and their resulting revenues, are significant, but unlikely to be transformative to the state’s finances. However, given low levels of economic and human development, effectively-spent resource revenues could have a significant impact on the welfare of Rajasthan’s citizens.  This paper discusses options for the use and management of oil revenues in Rajasthan, picking up the challenge from the point at which revenues start to flow to the government. The receipt and expenditure of oil revenues are matters for fiscal policy, and we consider them in the context of India’s federal system, where fiscal responsibility is divided between the federal government and state governments. Drawing on international experience, we discuss how resource revenues are spent in practice, and how they might better be used to benefit the citizens who ultimately own them.
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                    [post_content] => Paul Segal argues that the role of the oil price in causing recessions including the current one has been overstated - though it remains an important macroeconomic variable.

Click here to read the full article.
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                    [post_content] => This paper by Paul Segal considers the proposal that each country distribute its resource rents directly to citizens as a cash transfer or Resource Dividend and estimates its potential impact on global poverty. If every developing country implemented the policy then the number of people living below the World Bank’s $1-a-day global poverty line would be halved. Further potential benefits of the policy and a range of administrative and political challenges are discussed.
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                    [post_content] => Oil prices and economic cycles have been firmly linked in the public imagination since
the oil shocks of the 1970s, and the global recessions that followed. Spurred by these
events, economists in the 1980s analysed the relationship in a number of econometric
studies, demonstrating a negative correlation in the US and other industrial countries
between oil prices and macroeconomic performance. Yet while the association is
unambiguous at least in the US up to the early 1980s, at some point thereafter the
relationship appeared to attenuate, and in the last few years we have witnessed a steady
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                    [post_title] => Why do Oil Shocks no Longer Shock?
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                    [post_content] => The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook (IMF 2007) contains a box entitled “Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World Economy”. In our view the analysis is misleading, and likely to confuse rather than clarify the question of the relationship between demand, supply, oil prices, and the world economy.
                    [post_title] => A note on oil prices and the world economy in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook
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Latest Publications by Paul Segal

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