Manal Shehabi

Senior Research Fellow

Research Output & Publications>

Dr Manal Shehabi is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. She is also Visiting Academic at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford; and Research Associate of the Economic Research Forum (ERF). Previously, she has been at the OIES as Academic Visitor (2016-2018) and KFAS Supernumerary Research Fellow (2018-2021).

An applied economist, her research interests and expertise are in economic modeling and economic, energy, and resource sustainability in resource economies, focusing on the Middle East and Gulf regions.  Her research is published in numerous high impact journals, books, and policy reports.  Her publications span modeling, economic and energy diversification, subsidy reform, economic and environmental sustainability, the energy transition, and policy reform in oil producing countries.

Using modeling and political economic analyses, her research makes important contributions to the analysis of economic adjustment and policy alternatives in the face of the energy transition and hydrocarbon price volatility in hydrocarbon producing economies.  Her research offers a unique and powerful mathematical economy-wide model of Kuwait’s economy, which is translated to other economies. It offers new perspectives on economic diversification, expatriate labor, and oligopolistic behavior in Gulf hydrocarbon exporters and the management of both resource and non-resource oligopoly rents.  Her research examines decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors and modeling of hydrogen in Gulf countries.

Manal’s research impacted policymaking. She constructed an economic model for policymaking in Kuwait and conducted capacity building to policymakers.  She is Lead Author on a policy brief accepted by the T20 of the G20 Italy on a Framework for International Cooperation to Accelerate Decarbonization and Deployment of the Circular Carbon Economy (2021); and Contributing Author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019).  She is co-author of various reports, such as an ocean sustainability policy brief to the International Hydrographic Organization (2019), Kuwait Energy Outlook (2020).  Manal has also been an expert with the UNFCCC since 2018, working on measuring and modeling response measures and economic diversification in a low carbon environment.  She co-authored a report on Assessing Impacts of the Implementation of Response Measures in Developing Countries (2020), a pilot project to the UNFCCC which was presented at COP26.

Manal taught introductory and advanced courses in economics and guest-lectured on economics of energy and resources.  Previously, Manal was the KFAS-OIES Supernumerary Research Fellow (2018-2021); Researcher at the University of Western Australia (2014-2018); Academic Visitor at the OIES (2016-2018); and Academic Visitor in Germany (2016) and Kuwait (2015).  She frequently presents at international conferences and seminars and is cited or interviewed in major media outlets (such as Time Magazine, Aljazeera, Al-Arabiya, ABC radio).

Beyond academia, Manal frequently advises policymakers and firms.  She gained professional experience in the US, Australia, the Middle East, and Europe.  She was the in-house expert for a multinational oil and mining services company in Western Australia; economist/consultant in the US and Australia advising multinationals, including Fortune 500 companies, primarily in petrochemical, energy, and mining industries; successfully launched and managed a business public policy project; and advised corporate and policymakers on energy and economic sustainability.

Manal holds a PhD in economics (The University of Western Australia); an MIA-Economics (Texas A&M University); a BA (Honors) magna cum laude (Ursinus College, where she was Queen Noor-Ursinus College Scholar); and diplomas (Harvard Business School Publishing, & Université Marc Bloch). She is recipient of various honors, awards, and grants. A polyglot, her language capabilities include Arabic, English, French, Spanish, and Mandarin Chinese.

Twitter:  @ManalShehabi
Website: https://manalshehabi.weebly.com/

Areas of expertise

Economic modeling, general equilibrium, policy analysis, Kuwait’s economy and energy, economic sustainability in resource economies and in the Gulf economies, energy transition in Gulf states, climate change response measures, and energy in/from the oceans

Contact

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                    [post_date] => 2021-06-08 12:02:27
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                    [post_content] => The COVID-19 pandemic had been particularly deleterious on economies that export commodities with volatile prices.  The effects have been visible even in the relatively wealthy yet hydrocarbon-overdependent Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.  Notwithstanding differences among them, GCC states faced adverse effects of the pandemic along with expanded economic stimulus packages and a simultaneous large drop in oil export revenue and government budgets.  These dynamics are problematic to the extent that they affect current economic development and become enduring and foundational if the energy transitions accelerate to meet the Paris Agreement targets.  In the context, this paper investigates the following questions: (a) what are the long-term impacts of oil price declines and COVID-19 associated shocks on Gulf economies?; and (b) what lessons can be drawn from the pandemic and domestic policy responses to it for the future management of the accelerating energy transitions and enhancing economic sustainability?

This paper applies the economy-wide WAFRA Applied General Equilibrium (WAFRAGE) Model for Kuwait (WAFRAGE-KWT), which represents oligopoly behaviour and embodies key economic features and distortions.  It is calibrated to a database in the form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), constructed for this study and the first to represent Kuwait’s economy in a low oil price environment.  Simulations confirm that Kuwait’s economic resilience has significantly weakened post-COVID.  The cost of pandemic is proportionate to the length of pandemic and dependent on government’s economic responses to it and oil market dynamics.  Yet across all scenarios, fiscal cushions and savings are eroded and all macroeconomic indicators decline.  Real wages of unskilled Kuwaiti labour decline, while foreign labour wages and employment are largely hit. Household welfare and firms counterintuitively improve owing to government’s relief packages, but without a corresponding expansion in production, efficiency, output, or non-oil exports.

This paper makes important contributions to the literature of hydrocarbon exporters.  It is the first known study to quantify economy-wide impacts on a Gulf state of the pandemic along with policy responses to it and oil price declines.  Model simulations show that, although COVID relief packages appear counter-cyclical, the full potential benefits of such a fiscal policy cannot be realized owing to these states’ economic structure and consumption-based nature of their relief packages.  In the absence of a diversified export base, the combination of a weakened economic resiliency and eroded fiscal cushions/savings post-pandemic jeopardize the economy’s ability to survive the next large shocks in oil prices and demand following accelerated energy transitions or other crises.  The results confirm a large trade-off between short terms economic recovery gains and long-term sustainability goals.  Restoring long-term sustainability requires immediate yet phased implementation of urgent wide-scale fiscal, economic, microeconomic, and energy reforms.
                    [post_title] => Quantifying Long-Term Impacts of COVID-19 and Oil Price Shocks in a Gulf Oil Economy
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                    [post_content] => On April 7, 2021, OIES with and the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS) held the annual OIES-KFAS Workshop on Energy Transition Post-Pandemic in the Gulf. During the hydrogen session, a paper titled "Opportunity and Cost of Green Hydrogen in Kuwait: A Preliminary Assessment" co-authored by Dr. Manal Shehabi was presented.

Like others states in the GCC, Kuwait is seeking to explore hydrogen as part of its energy transition projects. The presentation highlights key technological opportunities for green hydrogen in Kuwait, followed by a techno-economic assessments of producing it. Results of utilized hydrogen production model show that for production in 2032 average levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is $3.23/kg using PEM technology & $4.41/kg using SOEC technology.  Results indicate that green hydrogen in Kuwait is more competitive than in other regions, but currently not competitive (>$1.5/kg) with oil, coal, and gas in absence of carbon taxes.
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                    [post_content] => On April 7, 2021, OIES with and the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS) held the annual OIES-KFAS Workshop on Energy Transition Post-Pandemic in the Gulf. During the hydrogen session, Dr. Manal Shehabi presented a paper titled "Opportunities and Challenges of Hydrogen in the Gulf".  The buzz around hydrogen in the global energy transition had seen hydrogen plans in Europe, Japan, Korea, and other countries.  Now GCC states-- namely Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, and Kuwait-- are joining. But how viable is the hydrogen economy in Gulf states? This question is the theme of this presentation.  It concludes that opportunities in the Gulf are significant including potential comparative advantage in blue and green hydrogen for use in exports and domestic decarbonization.  Nevertheless,, but a viable hydrogen economy is currently constrained by many challenges.  A national hydrogen strategy for any Gulf state needs to be determined as part of a larger integrative policy which includes detailed economic assessment of the viability of hydrogen.
                    [post_title] => The Case of Hydrogen in the Gulf States: Opportunities and Challenges
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                    [post_content] => The Energy Transition is necessary for achieving both universal energy access and the Paris Agreement targets, and it requires pathways that need to rely on all technologically feasible and economically affordable solutions.  The Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) has been accepted at the Saudi-presided G20 as an holistic, integrated, inclusive, pragmatic approach to managing emissions.  Nevertheless, CCE implementation requires international cooperation and agreement on how to monitor, quantify, certify, account carbon-content, & incentivize minimizing carbon emissions from fossil-based fuels.

To address these challenges, a policy brief proposal has been submitted and accepted to the T20 Italy, the think thank of the G20 Italy.  During the Inception Conference of T20 Italy, the think tank of the G20, Dr. Manal Shehabi presented the accepted policy brief proposal titled “International Cooperation to Accelerate Development and Deployment of Circular Carbon Economy.”

The policy brief proposes a three-point action plan to increase international cooperation and agreement on how to monitor, quantify, certify, account carbon-content, and incentivise minimising carbon emissions from fossil-based fuels.  The policy brief would expand necessary efforts to transition the hard-to-abate sectors toward carbon reduction and neutrality.
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                    [post_content] => The Paris Agreement has identified climate change mitigation as a goal, aiming to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” (Paris Agreement, art. 2.1). The Agreement also recognizes that the current need for adaptation necessary to achieve the said goal “is significant and that greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts, and that greater adaptation needs can involve greater adaptation costs” (UNFCCC in Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction, 2015 Art 7.4). Climate change mitigation and climate-resilient development require energy transition away from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy sources. Energy transition is happening in most countries, with different motivations and objectives. Adaptation measures, by contrast, are those changes that need to be introduced in response to the global adoption of climate change mitigation. This chapter examines how Kuwait can head toward energy transition and a larger economic diversification following a structural transformation of its economy. The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is necessary in order to reduce CO2 emissions and to free up hydrocarbon resources for export. Economic sustainability entails securing alternative sources of revenue to substitute for that generated by oil rents, which would be a solution to the intrinsically unsustainable nature of oil rents and the lack of diversification. Efficiency-enhancing structural change is required to achieve productivity growth in non-energy sectors that are also export-oriented—thereby achieving meaningful diversification. Policy reforms include competition and private sector reform. Moreover, energy pricing reform and revising energy subsidization are required in order to rationalize energy consumption, achieve energy efficiency, and encourage a more diversified growth while reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

Hilmi N., Farahmand S., & Shehabi, M. (2020). Climate Agreements Implementation through Energy Transition and Economic Diversification in KuwaitIn Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, From Rentier States to Diversified Economies, Miniaoui, H. (ed.), Gulf Studies, Vol: 1, Springer.
                    [post_title] => Climate Agreements’ Implementation Through Energy Transition and Economic Diversification in Kuwait
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                    [post_content] => The chapter redefines “economic sustainability” in resource-dependent states by offering a definition anchored in growth theory that accounts for economic challenges of resource dependence and takes into account the volatility and depletion features of resource-driven revenue. The chapter first summarizes the changing and elusive definition of economic sustainability in the context of resource-dependent economies, including its recent focus on diversification as a main recipe. The chapter then redefines economic sustainability as an issue that needs to be considered from two main perspectives: volatility and depletion. The definition reverts to economic growth theory as a basis for designing sustainability-promoting economic policies in line with drivers of economic growth and taking into account both perspectives. Successful growth-sustaining policies include appropriate management of resource windfall to achieve fiscal sustainability and long-term diversification. These policies include fiscal rigor and savings for capital accumulation; human capital development; technology and institutions; and regulation and industrial reform of oligopolies. Lessons are offered drawing on examples from Botswana, Chile, and Kuwait.

Shehabi M. (2021) Redefining Economic Sustainability in Resource-rich States: Comparative Lessons. In: Luciani G., Moerenhout T. (eds) When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable?. The Political Economy of the Middle East. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore.
                    [post_title] => Redefining Economic Sustainability in Resource-rich States: Comparative Lessons
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                    [post_content] => This article fills a gap in the literature by quantifying impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reform on trade (inflow and outflow) in an oil-producing, “almost small”, economy, using Kuwait as an example. It employs a two-region economy-wide model with oligopoly behaviour in a general equilibrium framework. The model embodies unique elements of Kuwait's economic structure, idiosyncratic rigidities, and distortions, including oligopolistic industrial structure and labour markets. Simulations show that energy subsidies have minimal effects on trade and on non-energy exports, largely due to the pervasiveness of oligopolies that sustain large markups and their collusive pricing. Reforming energy subsidies generates higher pro-trade effects if implemented during low (not high) oil prices because its negative effects are partially offset by efficiency gains and reduction in oligopoly markups. Yet, contrary to claims by proponents of reforms, these effects remain largely constrained unless appropriate incentives are introduced. These results have important policy implications. In developing oil-exporting economies with pervasive oligopolies, microeconomic reform can be a channel through which to achieve pro-trade effects of energy subsidy reform. Further, benefits beyond export expansion, such as higher economic efficiency, could be better motivators of energy subsidy reform in oil economies.

Shehabi, M. (2020). Is energy subsidy reform in an oil-exporting small economy beneficial to trade?  Illustrations from Kuwait. World Trade Review, 19 (s1), s36–s61. DOI: 10.1017/S1474745620000324
                    [post_title] => Is Energy Subsidy Reform in an Oil-Exporting Small Economy Beneficial to Trade? Illustrations from Kuwait
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                    [post_content] => This Perspectives article offers a novel form of article, drawing together short, focussed pieces from a wide group of authors addressing the plethora of issues which such a fundamental challenge as the coronavirus pandemic generates. These provide critical and reflective perspectives on the energy, environmental, socio-economic and policy paths that may be taken in the near and further future—strategies that could lead mankind either on roads to a much more sustainable development, or along paths that could bring about more instability, inequality and further energy and environmental pressures.  The target audiences are policy makers and companies, but also researchers who want quick yet sufficiently detailed knowledge about particular analyses relating to COVID-19 and issues in energy and environmental economics.  In a contribution specific to oil exporting economies, Shehabi argues that the novel issues raised by the coronavirus pandemic bring new trade-offs of energy policy between short-term gains and long-term sustainability, creating an urgent need for critical, quantitative, policy-focused research in the resource exporters-energy policy nexus.  Thus, it is critical for fast policy-focused research to address the resource exporters-energy policy nexus, especially in two areas involving energy transition, economic recovery, and long-term effects of energy and carbon pricing policy on the environment. Shehabi argues that for oil exporting countries, the current crisis increases the opportunity cost of moving to greener alternatives and that, for some regions, stimuli packages may reallocate funds away from green investments.

Shehabi, M. in Schumacher, I., et al. (2020). Perspectives on the economics of the environment in the shadow of coronavirus. “Novel policy research on the resource exporters-energy policy nexus during the Coronavirus pandemic” Environmental and Resource Economics, 76, 447–517. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00493-2.
                    [post_title] => Perspectives on the Economics of the Environment in the Shadow of Coronavirus: Novel Policy Research on the Resource Exporters-Energy Policy Nexus During the Coronavirus Pandemic
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                    [post_date] => 2020-07-20 10:37:35
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                    [post_content] => The motivation for this study is to fill existing gaps in the understanding of the economic impacts of oil price volatility on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and to assist in the management of recent oil price shocks following the COVID-19 pandemic. To that end, this paper employs an economy-wide general equilibrium model that embodies Kuwait’s economic structure and accounts for its political and economic constraints to quantify asymmetric responses of terms of trade shocks in Kuwait. It highlights impacts on non-energy sectors and ‘second-best effects’ to draw potentially-applicable lessons for the GCC. The results show that, consistent with expectations in the literature, there is potentially an asymmetric response between equi-proportional terms of trade shocks; yet in the current economic policy environment, this asymmetry is either non-existent for some economic variables or very limited and is significantly smaller than the asymmetry shown to exist in other resource-dependent and specialized economies. The potential asymmetry is mitigated by idiosyncratic adjustment mechanisms, namely the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and expatriate labour movement, especially when oligopolies are regulated. Contrary to theory expectations, the results also show there is a weak and limited (reverse) Dutch disease dynamic: specifically, there is a strong resource movement effect of the Dutch disease in Kuwait but an almost non-existent de-industrialization effect. Booms expand mainly nontraded oligopolies’ markup along with the energy sector and the SWFs, and raise rent distribution payments to the public. Busts reduce distribution payments and markups of oligopolistic firms, but the latter do not expand into the export market despite the depreciating real exchange rate. The regulation of oligopolies reduces rent-seeking behaviour and renders the economy more open and efficient at managing both high and low oil prices. The economic story behind these dynamics is that economic efficiency is largely reduced due to a high concentration of oligopolies in the public energy, as well as in the private non-energy, sectors; these oligopolies capture terms of trade shocks’ rents that detract from growth-enhancing innovation, hampering economic efficiency, competitiveness, and growth. Oligopolistic behaviour is enabled by (a) access to government subsidies; (b) access to expatriate labour whose wages are lower than those of national labour, have flexible contracts, and are therefore able to enter or exit the market with little cost to firms or repercussions to unemployment; (c) limited regulation; and (d) limited incentive to regulation because SWFs have been set up as quasi-industries, offering the government an alternative to industrial expansion and economic diversification. The sterilization of oil revenue through the SWF reduces available investments, further eroding potential reverse Dutch disease dynamics. The implication of this is that Dutch disease during high oil price episodes is not inevitable, but a result of policy choice, the downside of which is that reverse Dutch disease effects remain weak. There are important policy implications from this study which indicate that, even with oil price recovery, GCC’s existing economic policy regimes and procyclical fiscal management of oil rents are unsustainable and cannot produce the stated desired economic diversification. Although politically difficult, industrial regulation is a potential path in the GCC’s transformation plans to raise economic efficiency, manage oil and non-oil rents, expand non-energy sectors, and enhance economic resiliency in light of continuous oil price volatility.
                    [post_title] => Quantifying Dutch disease effects and asymmetry in economic responses to oil price volatility in Kuwait
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                    [post_date] => 2020-02-23 09:59:48
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                    [post_content] => The purpose of the Kuwait Energy Outlook 2020 (KEO-2020) Special Report is to characterize the progress made in Kuwait’s energy sector; to outline the energy and economic outlook until 2035 in light of current economic and energy policies; and identify the necessity of reform necessary to move towards achieving the State’s Vision 2035 ‘New Kuwait’ (Vision 2035). Building on analysis in the Kuwait Energy Outlook for 2019 (KEO-2019), this edition provides context and economic analysis of the importance of Kuwaiti energy sector and the necessity of reform based on the Business-As-Usual (BAU) Case. The analysis relies on assessments from Kuwait Energy Model used for projecting trends in KEO-2019 coupled with results from a computable general equilibrium model of the Kuwaiti economy. The Report first summarizes main developments in energy supply (oil and natural gas), renewables, power generation, and refining activities—all spanning until 2035.  The Higher Energy Committee (HEC) is discussed, being the government’s national energy champion, established to advocate for the coordination of the multiple dimensions of the national energy strategy. Projections of energy demand in Kuwait until 2035 show that previous trends still hold, with the transportation sector was remaining as one of the biggest drivers for local energy demand growth in Kuwait (growing at a rate of 3% per year). Under the BAU Case assumptions, export revenues will decline in the Outlook period due to oil price movement and declines in global demand for conventional oil and gas. Simultaneously, subsidies’ cost rises with increasing demand, worsening the fiscal deficit throughout the Outlook period. The share of non-oil sectors in the economy’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to increase, but only modestly and not meaningfully in that these sectors’ revenue will not replace the decline of oil export revenue. Contrary to stated objectives, total reported subsidies received by the electricity and water industries increased over time. The growth in the transport sector in the BAU Case is unsustainable, as it will account for approximately 30% of total energy consumed domestically and 22% of total emissions in 2035.  Residential electricity consumption is expected to grow at an annual average of 1.2% over the Outlook period. Assuming efficiency levels, margins, and production costs remain constant, simulations estimate that the cost of subsidizing residential electricity consumption would increase by 26% over the Outlook period. The BAU Case shows that it will not be possible to achieve Vision 2035 Plan’s targeted goals of reducing energy consumption and raising the renewables’ share in energy production to 15% of supplied capacity. Achieving these goals will not be possible unless appropriate reform is applied, of which energy subsidy and energy efficiency are the most important and urgent areas to achieve economic, environmental, and energy sustainability.  Finally, this Special Report holds that the paucity and opacity of energy statistics precludes a more detailed and comprehensive analysis of Kuwait’s energy future. This Report is published by the Energy and Building Research Center at Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research.

Al-Abdullah, Y. M.; Shehabi, M.; & Sreekanth, K. J. (2020).  Kuwait Energy Outlook 2020: Current Policies and Necessity of Reform. Kuwait City: Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research.
                    [post_title] => Kuwait Energy Outlook 2020: Current Policies and Necessity of Reform
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                    [post_date] => 2020-01-23 09:54:31
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                    [post_content] => For oil exporters, energy subsidy reform and economic diversification are critical policy responses to recent fundamental changes in the global oil market and oil price declines, yet the relationship between them is little understood. This article investigates linkages between energy subsidy reform and accelerating economic diversification away from hydrocarbons in a low oil price environment, using illustrations from Kuwait. It employs an economy-wide, general equilibrium model with oligopolistic industrial structure, the first of its kind for an economy in the Middle East and North Africa, that embodies unique elements of the country's economic structure—oil dependence; public sector dominance; subsidies; sovereign wealth funds; industrial collusive pricing behaviour; and guest workers. The article argues that, contrary to common popular discourse, Kuwait's economy has a diversified economic base, but this base fails to diversify export or government revenue needed for economic sustainability. Results show that weak economic diversification in oil exporters with a similar economic structure is not primarily due to “Dutch disease,” as dominant in the literature, but to economic constraints and distortions that impair structural change and exacerbate overdependence on hydrocarbons. Labour and competition reforms relax some constraints, achieving large efficiency gains that extend economywide and can expand non-energy tradable sectors. The analysis has important policy implications. First, the potential role of pricing regulation in small economies in moderating economic impacts of negative oil shocks. Second, in oil economies characterized by pervasive oligopolies, microeconomic reform can be a channel to achieve efficiency and better diversification effects of subsidy reform.

Shehabi, M. (2020). Diversification Effects of Energy Subsidy Reform in Oil Exporters: Illustrations from Kuwait. Energy Policy, 123, 110966. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110966.
                    [post_title] => Diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters: Illustrations from Kuwait
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                    [post_date] => 2019-04-29 12:53:53
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                    [post_content] => 

After the recent oil price declines in mid-2014, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) oil exporters including Kuwait reduced energy subsidies and passed economic diversification-enhancing policies in an attempt to improve fiscal balance and economic sustainability. This paper argues that these economies already have a diversified base but this base has not contributed to export or fiscal diversification due to structural constraints and economic distortions.  Using illustrations from Kuwait, this argument is tested with simulations using an economy-wide general equilibrium model that embodies key features of the Kuwaiti economy—including subsidies, sovereign wealth funds, industrial oligopolistic structure with collusive pricing, and a labour market that depends heavily on a segregated expatriate labour force. Model simulations confirm that after an oil price decline, subsidy reform alone adds little impetus to diversification, but that relaxing some economic constraints, through mobility of Kuwaiti labour (which simulate Kuwaitization policies) and competition reform, would achieve large efficiency gains throughout the economy and could expand non-energy tradable sectors. This result supports the argument put forth in the paper that weak economic diversification in MENA oil exporters is not primarily due to Dutch disease, as is frequently argued in the relevant economics literature, but to economic and structural constraints and economic distortions. The results have two key policy implications.  In small MENA economies, pricing regulation has the potential role of moderating the economic impacts of oil price volatility. And in developing oil economies with pervasive oligopolies like those in the Gulf region, microeconomic reform can achieve efficiency and enhance the diversification effects resulting from energy and fiscal subsidy reforms.  Finally, implementing reforms that reduce distortions is a politically complex process, therefore, to achieve meaningful diversification and fiscal sustainability, these reforms ought to be implemented as part of a wider set of broader economic, social, energy, environmental, cultural, and institutional reforms.

[post_title] => Diversification in Gulf hydrocarbon economies and interactions with energy subsidy reform: lessons from Kuwait [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => diversification-gulf-hydrocarbon-economies-interactions-energy-subsidy-reform-lessons-kuwait [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-07-29 11:12:38 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-07-29 10:12:38 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31528 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33485 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-02-06 11:46:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-02-06 11:46:13 [post_content] => For decades, economic diversification has been a key goal for the Gulf oil exporting countries, as evidenced by their various national development plans. For countries that are highly reliant on oil export revenues, achieving this goal is seen by policymakers as essential both for political and economic security and for sustainability. Some Gulf oil exporters have made progress in diversifying their economic base away from the oil sector over the past few decades. Nevertheless, most indicators of economic complexity, diversity, and export quality continue to be lower in oil-exporting Gulf economies than in many emerging market economies, including other commodity exporters. For the Gulf economies, the biggest challenges have been to diversify the sources of government income, for instance through raising additional revenues by taxing individuals and businesses, and to generate non-oil export revenues by building export-oriented industries. This article explores the reasons for economic diversification’s increasing prioritization in the Gulf States, their current levels of diversification, and options for achieving more meaningful diversification. Fattouh, B. and Shahabi, M. (2019). ‘The Gulf economies’ long road towards better diversification’, World Energy. [post_title] => The Gulf economies’ long road towards better diversification [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-gulf-economies-long-road-towards-better-diversification [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 11:56:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 11:56:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33485 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31384 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-01-31 12:14:50 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-01-31 12:14:50 [post_content] => Although pervasive, subsidies have long been accepted by economists as a generally inefficient, costly means of resource allocation that leads to wasteful consumption and distortion of international trade and local markets. Oil-exporting economies have adopted energy pricing reform since the collapse of the oil price in mid-2014, despite lingering fears that such efforts would hurt industries’ competitiveness internationally. The World Trade Organization (WTO), a proponent of subsidy reform, has advanced that had targeted effectuating subsidy reform through the use of trade rules.  Yet there is limited evidence on the linkages between trade and energy subsidy reform in the context of oil-exporting economies. This Insight gives a non-technical commentary of a paper which attempts to fill a gap in the literature by examining the impact of fossil fuel subsidy reform on trade (inflow and outflow) in an oil-producing, ‘almost’ small economy, focusing on the case of Kuwait. It employs a two-region economy-wide model with oligopoly behaviour to quantify the impact of Kuwaiti subsidy reform on trade. The model extends that of Shehabi (2017) by differentiating consumer- and industry-specific subsidy rates, and it also embodies unique elements of Kuwait’s economic structure (rigidities) and distortions in its industrial structure and labour market. The results show that the impacts of subsidy reform on trade are driven by existing idiosyncratic economic rigidities and distortions. Simulations clarify the fact that energy production subsidies have minimal effect on the international competitiveness of Kuwaiti non-energy sectors, due to the pervasiveness of oligopolies that sustain large markups and collusive pricing. As such, contrary to what the WTO’s polices suggest, the expansion of non-oil exports is constrained in its ability to moderate reform impacts in a low oil price environment due to institutional, political, and economic constraints. Yet with appropriate incentives, such dynamics could be considerably more effective—leading to potential expansion. Subsidy reforms have higher pro-trade effects if implemented in a low oil price environment because their negative effects are partially offset by efficiency gains and reduction in oligopoly markups. The analysis shows that in developing oil exporting economies characterized by pervasiveness of oligopolies, microeconomic reform can be a channel through which the pro-trade effects of energy subsidy reform can be achieved.  The results have great policy implications, including that organizations like the WTO should use benefits other than non-energy expansion to encourage oil economies to reform energy subsidies. [post_title] => Is energy subsidy reform in an oil-exporting small economy beneficial to trade? Illustrations from Kuwait (Non Technical Summary) [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-subsidy-reform-oil-exporting-small-economy-beneficial-trade-illustrations-kuwait [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-03-20 10:06:50 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-03-20 10:06:50 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31384 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30731 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-11-13 10:31:53 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-11-13 10:31:53 [post_content] => From mid-2014 Kuwait has experienced a substantial drop in its oil export price and, consequently, government revenue, causing a severe fiscal deficit and impaired economic performance.  Cutting energy subsidies has become a policy priority.  In the face of widespread opposition, the government raised gasoline prices in August 2016, proclaiming such reform key to solving its economic problems; yet recent policy discussions have not addressed the mechanism of pricing reforms.  The paper offers a quantification and assessment of energy pricing reform in the current low oil price environment via a general equilibrium model of the Kuwaiti economy that embodies the structure of its economy and its labour market, its oligopolistic industries and their collusive pricing behaviour, and external flows associated with its sovereign wealth fund.  Simulations clarify the required adjustments, including the seldom discussed expatriate labour exit and the decline in oligopoly rents.  While necessary, subsidy reform implies tradeoffs, notably between fiscal stabilisation and cost of living sustainability.  The results confirm that successful implementation must be accompanied by carefully designed mitigation measures and associated microeconomic reforms. [post_title] => Assessing Kuwaiti Energy Pricing Reforms [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => assessing-kuwaiti-energy-pricing-reforms [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 11:37:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 11:37:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30731 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 15 [current_post] => -1 [before_loop] => 1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 43784 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2021-06-08 12:02:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2021-06-08 11:02:27 [post_content] => The COVID-19 pandemic had been particularly deleterious on economies that export commodities with volatile prices.  The effects have been visible even in the relatively wealthy yet hydrocarbon-overdependent Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.  Notwithstanding differences among them, GCC states faced adverse effects of the pandemic along with expanded economic stimulus packages and a simultaneous large drop in oil export revenue and government budgets.  These dynamics are problematic to the extent that they affect current economic development and become enduring and foundational if the energy transitions accelerate to meet the Paris Agreement targets.  In the context, this paper investigates the following questions: (a) what are the long-term impacts of oil price declines and COVID-19 associated shocks on Gulf economies?; and (b) what lessons can be drawn from the pandemic and domestic policy responses to it for the future management of the accelerating energy transitions and enhancing economic sustainability? This paper applies the economy-wide WAFRA Applied General Equilibrium (WAFRAGE) Model for Kuwait (WAFRAGE-KWT), which represents oligopoly behaviour and embodies key economic features and distortions.  It is calibrated to a database in the form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), constructed for this study and the first to represent Kuwait’s economy in a low oil price environment.  Simulations confirm that Kuwait’s economic resilience has significantly weakened post-COVID.  The cost of pandemic is proportionate to the length of pandemic and dependent on government’s economic responses to it and oil market dynamics.  Yet across all scenarios, fiscal cushions and savings are eroded and all macroeconomic indicators decline.  Real wages of unskilled Kuwaiti labour decline, while foreign labour wages and employment are largely hit. Household welfare and firms counterintuitively improve owing to government’s relief packages, but without a corresponding expansion in production, efficiency, output, or non-oil exports. This paper makes important contributions to the literature of hydrocarbon exporters.  It is the first known study to quantify economy-wide impacts on a Gulf state of the pandemic along with policy responses to it and oil price declines.  Model simulations show that, although COVID relief packages appear counter-cyclical, the full potential benefits of such a fiscal policy cannot be realized owing to these states’ economic structure and consumption-based nature of their relief packages.  In the absence of a diversified export base, the combination of a weakened economic resiliency and eroded fiscal cushions/savings post-pandemic jeopardize the economy’s ability to survive the next large shocks in oil prices and demand following accelerated energy transitions or other crises.  The results confirm a large trade-off between short terms economic recovery gains and long-term sustainability goals.  Restoring long-term sustainability requires immediate yet phased implementation of urgent wide-scale fiscal, economic, microeconomic, and energy reforms. 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Latest Publications by Manal Shehabi