This comment argues that while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cooperate, this does not imply that the fundamentals of Saudi oil policy have necessarily changed nor that the kingdom would accept any deal irrespective of the key principles that have been guiding Saudi oil policy so far. Based on its historical record, it is […]
In this working paper, Adair Turner et al. consider price movements in the oil trading markets between 2003 and 2010, and provide an analysis of factors which potentially explain the significant trends in this period. The authors also discuss the impact of different forms of oil price volatility and propose the type that matters most […]
This comment analyses the oil price dynamics in 2009 arguing that 2009 represents a remarkable year in at least two respects: it witnessed the sharpest increase in spot oil prices in decades; and in the second half of 2009 it exhibited a high degree of relative stability despite a very uncertain and volatile global economic […]
The recent behaviour of prices has polarised views about the key drivers of oil prices. One view attributes the recent behaviour in oil prices to structural transformations in the fundamentals of the oil market. An alternative view considers that oil markets have been distorted by substantial and volatile speculative financial flows. This dichotomy between fundamentals […]
The proposal for a crude oil price band seems to be gathering support. This comment discusses some of the limitations of an oil price band then it proposes a new framework for understanding the recent dynamics of oil price movements based on feedbacks. Rather than aiming at stabilising spot prices within a band the comment […]
This presentation, by Bassam Fattouh, challenges some of the conventional wisdom regarding the role of OPEC and analyses the Organisation’s role in the short-term management of the oil market and its behaviour over the oil price cycle. It also discusses some of the transformations in the oil market and how these pose long term challenges […]
On October 9 2009 the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held a one-day conference in Oxford on ‘Oil Price Volatility: Causes and Measures of Mitigation Strategies’. The conference focused on three themes: the role of fundamentals and financial factors in explaining the recent sharp swings in oil prices and the marked increase in price volatility; […]
Price Demand and Market Structure for the Oil Industry: Distillates in the driver’s seat or Gasoline resurgence ?
Since the early 1970s, OPEC has been central to understanding the dynamics of oil prices. With the shift to the futures market for oil price determination, OPEC has also become important in understanding the changes in the shape of the futures curve and expectations about changes in long term oil prices. At this critical juncture, […]
Despite the wide variety of internationally traded crude oils with different qualities and characteristics (the 2006 International Crude Oil Market Handbook describes more than 160 traded crude oil streams), many observers consider the world oil market as ‘one great pool’ (Adelman, 1984). Others argues that oil markets are ‘globalized’ in the sense that supply and […]
One striking feature in the current market has been the prolonged contango in the WTI forward curve. Dr Bassam Fattouh assesses the various explanations that have been put forward to explain the current contango in crude oil markets.
Earlier this year in Caracas, OPEC announced that it would leave its production quota unchanged. However, not everyone is convinced by OPEC’s recent announcement. Some observers believe that OPEC members have already reduced their supplies to keep inventories in check and they are doing this by not discounting their heavy crude oils. This comment explores […]
A new OIES paper on outlook of Russia’s gas productive capacity: ruble depreciation in 2015-18 helped Gazprom turn… https://t.co/BFnUnoazVe
Shrinking surplus – the outlook for Russia’s spare gas productive capacity https://t.co/25GVSHw2Qo
Rogers on Pacific Coast LNG plans and Shell’s approval to construct a $30 billion export terminal in British Columb… https://t.co/koheAUcCNa