Tag: LNG

  • China’s Natural Gas Development Report – Reality Check

    By: Stephen O'Sullivan

    China recently released its Natural Gas Development Report for 2019, a document which sets outs its plans for the sector in the years ahead.  The past two years of stellar gas demand growth have framed a narrative, at least in western markets, that China’s future demand growth will remain in double-digit percentage rates and be […]

  • Russian LNG: Becoming a Global Force

    By: James Henderson , Vitaly Yermakov

    The successful launch of Novatek’s Yamal LNG project has brought Russia’s plans to develop its LNG industry into the spotlight, and this paper by James Henderson and Vitaly Yermakov examines the prospects for the next decade and more. The Russian government has laid out some aggressive expansion plans, with both commercial and geo-political consequences, and […]

  • Could we see $2 gas in Europe in 2020?

    By: Mike Fulwood

    Europe has long been regarded as the balancing market for global LNG and has performed this function extremely well in the last twelve months, with total imports of 105 bcm – a 75 per cent rise year on year. In this period spot prices collapsed averaging less than $4 in the third quarter of this […]

  • Challenges to the Future of LNG: decarbonisation, affordability, and profitability

    By: Jonathan Stern

    Decarbonisation should be very much on the radar of new LNG projects currently taking FID, commissioning around 2024-25 and planning to operate up to 2050. The LNG community needs to replace an `advocacy’ message – based on the generality of emissions from combustion of natural gas being lower than from other fossil fuels – with […]

  • Sanctions, Shipping, and Oil Markets

    By: Adi Imsirovic , Michal Meidan

    In just over a week, the theoretical cost of taking a barrel of oil from the Gulf to Asia, in the cheapest possible way, rose by $6 per barrel. At a time when refinery margins are in single digits, this is a major blow to refinery profitability. The US administration’s decision to sanction two subsidiaries […]

  • US-China: The Great Decoupling

    By: Michal Meidan

    Markets have been watching with bated breath the ups and downs in bilateral negotiations between the US and China as the two sides seek to resolve a tariff tit-for-tat that has escalated into a trade war. But what many observers may have failed to notice is that the negotiating process has also laid bare a […]

  • LNG Spot Price Forecasting and the Futures Curve

    By: Nikolai Drahos

    LNG spot prices in Asia have defied expectations over the past few years. During 2016 and 2017, LNG markets were widely expected to enter a period of overcapacity, resulting in a long period of low LNG spot prices in Asia. Instead, Asian LNG spot prices increased quickly due to surging demand, particularly in China, and […]

  • Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 6

    By: Thierry Bros

    Thanks to Argus Media, we updated our “LNG tightness” metric that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. A period of oversupply leads normally to behavioural changes to adapt to a new […]

  • Are Asian LNG Spot Prices Finally Decoupling from Oil?

    By: Mike Fulwood

    LNG spot prices in Asia have fallen sharply in the last 6 months as the supply coming on to the market has outstripped demand. With oil prices remaining above $70/b this has opened up a wide gap with oil linked long term contract prices. Are we seeing the beginning of a systematic decoupling of spot […]

  • A review of prospects for natural gas as a fuel in road transport

    By: Chris N Le Fevre

    The number of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers.  NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available – and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in […]

  • New Players New Models

    By: David Ledesma , Mike Fulwood

    The LNG business is in a period of considerable change as it moves from a structured to a traded market. The entry of new players has resulted in a more flexible value chain model, where the bilateral linkages between suppliers and buyers are no longer ‘fixed’. The increase in spot purchases and short-term trading has […]

  • Price reviews and arbitrations in Asian LNG markets

    By: Agnieszka Ason

    Until recently, Asian LNG contract issues, including price adjustments, have been resolved by negotiation, with few formal price review clauses, and certainly no price review arbitrations. These two, largely European phenomena to date, are only now spilling over into Asia. As this paper argues, the role of LNG price reviews and arbitrations in the Pacific […]