Tag: energy security

  • China: Key Themes for 2020

    By: Michal Meidan

    In 2019, markets focused on China’s slowing GDP growth and on the trade war with the US. In the meantime, bilateral relations soured, highlighting the structural nature of competition between the US and China with the Trump administration working, for example, to limit Huawei’s role in Western telecom networks. Washington’s ‘zero tolerance’ campaign on Iran […]

  • China’s Natural Gas Development Report – Reality Check

    By: Stephen O'Sullivan

    China recently released its Natural Gas Development Report for 2019, a document which sets outs its plans for the sector in the years ahead.  The past two years of stellar gas demand growth have framed a narrative, at least in western markets, that China’s future demand growth will remain in double-digit percentage rates and be […]

  • Four misconceptions about China’s oil demand in 2019

    By: Michal Meidan

    In 2019, markets were bracing for a slowdown in China’s oil product demand growth, but grappling to quantify it given the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade negotiations. At the same time, with the start of two new mega-refineries, markets were expecting strong crude demand, alongside a deluge of product output and exports. In this comment, […]

  • Sanctions, Shipping, and Oil Markets

    By: Adi Imsirovic , Michal Meidan

    In just over a week, the theoretical cost of taking a barrel of oil from the Gulf to Asia, in the cheapest possible way, rose by $6 per barrel. At a time when refinery margins are in single digits, this is a major blow to refinery profitability. The US administration’s decision to sanction two subsidiaries […]

  • China’s energy security at 70

    By: Michal Meidan

    As China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on 1 October 2019, it seems to have gone full circle back to its 1949 assessments of the US: “a greedy and violent nation, struggling to remain the wealthiest and strongest on earth”. For the first two decades of […]

  • Glimpses of China’s energy future

    By: Michal Meidan

    China’s largest oil and gas major, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), released its 2050 outlook in late August. This coincides with preliminary work currently being undertaken by domestic think tanks, state-owned enterprises, and ministries ahead of the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, which will run from 2021 to 2025). While the CNPC report is by no […]

  • Ukrainian Gas Transit: Still Vital for Russian Gas Supplies to Europe as Other Routes Reach Full Capacity

    By: Jack Sharples

    With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to […]

  • Reflection on the Baumgarten Gas Explosion: Markets are Working

    By: Thierry Bros

    On the morning of 12 December (9:00 CET), an explosion at the major European gas hub at Baumgarten in Austria forced the operator to close the gas facility. Italian gas prices surged as a result to 80€/MWh or 27$/MMBtu and Italy declared a state of emergency regarding energy supplies. Flows restarted later the same evening […]

  • Turkey’s gas demand decline: reasons and consequences

    By: Gulmira Rzayeva

    Following the introduction of its Gas Market Law in 2001, gas demand in Turkey grew rapidly during the 2000s, tripling to almost 50bcm by 2014. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically (even declining in 2016) as the government has come to regard its import dependence (imported gas accounts for 98 per cent of total […]

  • China’s loans for oil: asset or liability?

    By: Michal Meidan

    China’s leaders have long been concerned with the strategic vulnerabilities associated with rising oil imports. In their efforts to hedge against these, Chinese policy banks have handed out loans that are repaid with oil. By 2015, repayment for these loans generated 1.4-1.6 mb/d of crude and fuel oil deliveries from Venezuela, Russia, Brazil, and Ecuador […]

  • The UK in the EU – Stay or Leave? The balance sheet on energy and climate policy

    By: David Buchan , Malcolm Keay

    Energy may not be the biggest issue in the impending referendum on the UK’s EU membership. However, energy policy is increasingly being developed at EU level and the EU is aiming to achieve a full ‘Energy Union’, so it is important for those with an interest in energy and decarbonisation to understand the arguments, and […]

  • Europe’s Energy Union – a problem of governance

    By: Malcolm Keay , David Buchan

    This Comment explores how far the EU can go towards the goal of an Energy Union. The European Commission announced ambitious plans for such a Union earlier this year and followed it up with a number of supporting proposals. However, the Comment identifies a fundamental underlying problem – of governance. The Commission has limited formal […]