Tag: US Shale

  • The Dilemma Continues: OPEC choices amid high uncertainty

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    OPEC is faced with a wide range of uncertainties, which are perhaps best reflected in the gulf in narratives between the bulls and the bears. For the bulls, OPEC is in a strong position: the declines in non-OPEC supply are structural while the slowdown in global economic growth is temporary. Based on this view, a […]

  • Prospects for US shale productivity gains

    By: Rob West

    US Shale performance has been disappointing this year. Most international organisations have been revising down their 2020 US shale production forecasts. The downgrade reflects lower oil prices, lower rig counts, capital constraints, pipeline bottlenecks and a negative trend in well-productivity. After all, 2019 has been a punishing environment for any company to lower its production guidance, […]

  • Saudi Arabia’s Next Oil Move

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    The sharp decline in the Brent price to below $60/barrel and the weakening of the oil demand outlook due to the US-China trade war has brought to the fore the issue of Saudi Arabia’s next move. There have been multiple media reports indicating that Saudi Arabia would not tolerate the latest price slide and that […]

  • The Crude Oil Market in 2018 & 2019 – How Did We Get Here & What Next?

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    This presentation discusses the oil market outlook for 2018 and 2019. It outlines the main factors behind the rebalancing of the oil market, including stronger than expected global oil demand growth and strong OPEC cohesion (caused in part due to involuntary cuts). The presentation then analyses the main trends shaping oil price outcomes in the […]

  • The Oil Market’s Mixed Price Signals

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    Recent movements in oil prices, time spreads, and physical differentials have been sending some mixed signals both about current and long-term market fundamentals. This may reflect heightened uncertainty as well as a wide divergence of expectations about key factors shaping the oil market, both in the short-term and the medium-term, including the size of potential […]

  • Oil Supply Balances: The Four Cycles of the OPEC Oil Output Policy

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    OPEC exit strategy has been one of the key uncertainties engulfing the oil market. Most market focus has been on the level of inventories, as this is seen by many as a key indicator as to when OPEC may shift its current output policy. In this presentation, it is argued that the level of inventories, […]

  • Oil Price Paths in 2018: The Interplay between OPEC, US Shale and Supply Interruptions

    By: Bassam Fattouh , Andreas Economou

    2018 started on a positive note for oil markets with Brent prices breaking through $70 a barrel for a few days and all the key international crude oil benchmarks flipping into backwardation. Yet, there is still a wide uncertainty engulfing the oil market, with very divergent views among market observers about how the oil price […]

  • OPEC’s Hard Choices

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    Oil market sentiment has shifted considerably over the last few weeks. Brent is trading above $60 per barrel, the major benchmarks are in backwardation, stocks have been falling towards the five-year average, global oil demand remains strong, financial positioning is at record length, OPEC and non-OPEC compliance has been high, the additional Nigerian and Libyan […]

  • US Crude Exports – Gaining Ground

    By: Dominic Haywood

    US crude oil exports surged to a record high of 1.8 mb/d in October 2017, 1.2 mb/d higher y/y. A few months earlier, the market had fervently questioned the ability of the US to export more than 1.2 mb/d, suggesting capacity constraints would cap departures at this level and result in large inventory builds on […]

  • Completion Design Changes and the Impact on US Shale Well Productivity

    By: Trisha Curtis , Benjamin Montalbano

    The 2014 oil price downturn caused the US unconventional oil and gas industry to undertake an array of cost-cutting measures affecting both capital and operational expenditures. Focus shifted towards operational efficiency, well design, and the maximization of each dollar spent, and away from the gold rush mentality that had characterized the former $100/bl price environment. […]

  • The Phases of Saudi Oil Policy: What Next?

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    This presentation delivered at the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) analyses the main factors shaping Saudi oil policy and the various phases of the Kingdom’s oil policy since the 2008 financial crisis. It is possible to identify four such phases: 1) In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Saudi Arabia decided to cut output in the face of a temporary demand shock […]

  • Unravelling the US Shale Productivity Gains

    By: Trisha Curtis

    This paper seeks to assess the well productivity changes in US shale since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 by analysing the nature of these productivity gains through an assessment of the impact of cost cuts, efficiency gains, and technology advances on the performance of recently developed shale and tight oil wells.  The paper argues […]