President Trump’s recent decision to exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the expectation therefore of the loss of Iranian barrels has brought the fate of the OPEC+ deal to the fore. For some analysts, this signifies that ‘the current OPEC deal will end by end-2018’ while for others the impact may be felt as […]
In this first of a new series of Quarterly Gas Reviews, Thierry Bros provides his insights and analysis on recent regional and global pricing issues while also commenting on relevant questions concerning policy and market-related matters. The report contains two major sections: an analysis of prices and recent events and a “Quarterly Focus” which provides […]
In this presentation, given at IP Week, Bassam Fattouh discusses the heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the potential impacts, both short-and long-term, on oil and gas markets. He argues that the nature of geopolitical risks in the region has changed dramatically and that despite the defeat of the […]
While the impact of the increase in US production on prices and on oil market dynamics is yet to be fully felt, as some of the underlying forces still need time to unfold and need to be fully understood, it is important to provide a general framework to help us analyse the US shale revolution […]
The political turmoil that has swept across many parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since the beginning of the Arab Spring in December 2010 and the tightening of international sanctions against Iran in 2012 have reignited the recurring debate about energy security and the reliability of MENA as an energy supplier. In […]
To most analysts, the combination of geopolitical and economic factors constitutes a ‘perfect storm’ that will keep an upward pressure on oil the price for the rest of 2012. The purpose of this short article is to broaden the debate and consider some potential weaknesses in the dominant story. The article will highlight three main […]
This presentation examines the evolution of OPEC in the last 50 years and identifies some of the important structural changes in the oil market that has influenced OPEC behaviour. The presentation highlights the changing and evolving role of OPEC and proposes new approaches to analyse OPEC’s role in the oil price formation process.
During the 1980s and 1990s, energy security declined in importance as oil prices fell and spare capacity stood at high levels. This was reversed in the decade that followed and once more energy security became a priority in policy agendas of most oilimporting countries. High oil prices, threats of terrorist attacks, instability in many oil-exporting […]
The behaviour of oil prices has received special attention in the current environment of rapid rises and marked increase in oil price volatility. It is widely believed that high oil prices can slow economic growth, cause inflationary pressures and create global imbalances. Volatile oil prices can also increase uncertainty and discourage muchneeded investment in the […]
This background note was presented by Dr. Robert Skinner at the Government of Canada Energy Symposium on 28th October 2005, Ottawa, Canada.
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