Spare Capacity, Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy by Dr. Bassam Fattouh for Oxford Economic Forecasting’s conference ‘Global Macro and Industrial Outlook’ held in London on 6-7 June 2006.
The development of the international economy has created a system of interdependent nations, ultimateiy pointing at one world economy. This process of globalisation has strengthened the role of international economic organisations and treaties, creating new sets of rules, procedures, and principles.
The market structure of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been debated since 1973, when large price increases catapulted the organization into public attention. The debate continued as prices rose still higher in 1978 and 1979 but subsided when they fell closer to historical levels in 1986. Conventional wisdom suggests that OPEC is […]
The double squeeze on OPEC’s oil ouput caused by a fall in the world demand for oil and a rapid growth in non-OPEC supplies is preventing this organization from performing a price stablization role . The current oil price crisis is the consequence of these developments.
The OPEC price escalations of 1973-74 and 1979-80 have had a crucial effect on the world economy and on international trade. Non-OPEC countries have had t o adjust to higher petroleum prices. They have tried to develop alternative energy resources and have invested in various energy conservation measures.
The purpose of this paper is to provide analytical explanations for the price trends and the important oil market episodes of the past three decades.
The economic development of the Arab region in recent years has become heavily dependent on the fortunes of oil . The sudden and significant increases in oil prices and revenues of 1973/74 and 1979180 have had a considerable impact on the levels and patterns of economic development in the oil-exporting and in the non-oil countries […]
Since the first petroleum crisis in 1973-74 oil prices have risen considerably. One reason for this has been that oil consumers have been insensitive to price changes. In the short run it has been difficult to find any viable fuel alternative .
A study of o i l developments during ‘1978-82 may provide some important insights into the operation of the pricing mechanism for petroleum in international trade. First of all, this period enables us to study the behaviour of oil producers in both arising and a falling market. In 1979/80 excess demand pushed prices up more […]
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