Tag: Contango

  • Current Oil Market Dynamics and the Role of OPEC – Reflections on Robert Mabro’s Work

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    The Arab Energy Club organised a special session in Bahrain to celebrate and honour the work of Robert Mabro, the founder and former Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and to look back at his lifetime contribution to the analysis of oil markets and his efforts to bring together the various stakeholders in […]

  • Reinforcing Feedbacks, Time Spreads and Oil Prices

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    While the media often focuses on the sharp swings in oil price, there have been some interesting reinforcing feedbacks unfolding in the term structure of oil prices affecting the international pricing system, financial investment, inventories and OPEC behaviour. These feedbacks are not new to the oil market, but the current environment seems to have amplified […]

  • Basis Variation and the Role of Inventories: Evidence from the Crude Oil Market

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    Understanding the variation in the spread between the futures price and the spot price (known as the basis) is important for efficient hedging and for explaining the dynamics of commodity spot prices. Classical studies based on the theory of storage explain the variation in the basis in terms of changes in the fundamentals of supply […]

  • Analysing Oil Prices

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    In this presentation, Dr Bassam Fattouh discusses three main approaches for analyzing oil prices: non-structural models, the supply-demand framework, and the informal approach. While non-structural models rely on the theory of exhaustible resources as the basis for understanding the oil market, the supply-demand framework uses behavioural equations that link oil demand and supply to its […]

  • Contango Lessons

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    One striking feature in the current market has been the prolonged contango in the WTI forward curve. Dr Bassam Fattouh assesses the various explanations that have been put forward to explain the current contango in crude oil markets.

  • Oil Prices and Markets

    By: Bassam Fattouh

    In this presentation, Dr Bassam Fattouh assesses the recent behaviour of oil prices focusing on ten relationships between oil prices and the market.

  • The Oil Price Crisis of 1998

    By: Robert Mabro

    Oil prices have fallen since the end of November 1997 well below a level of $18 per barrel for dated Brent which petroleum-exporting countries and oil companies have been recently inclined to consider as a kind of acceptable norm. The fall in price has elicited rather speedily a producers’ response which involved both OPEC and […]

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