Tag: China

  • Geopolitical shifts and China’s energy policy priorities

    By: Michal Meidan

    At the end of February, the China Energy Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies hosted its first ‘China Day’, bringing together programme sponsors alongside a number of experts to discuss some of the key trends in China and their implications for energy policies and markets. At the outset, discussions during the day […]

  • When China sneezes…

    By: Michal Meidan

    2020 looked to be off to a good start for China. But as the Year of the Pig ended, celebrations to welcome the Year of the Rat were marred by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Beijing’s efforts to control the spread of the virus are set to weigh on economic activity as well […]

  • China and IMO 2020

    By: Michal Meidan

    Shippers and refiners have been actively preparing for the IMO transition and engaged in a lively debate on how it would play out, and since the second half of 2019, making active preparations for it. Chinese refiners, however, seem to have been less preoccupied with it than their Western peers. This may seem surprising given […]

  • Central Asian Gas: prospects for the 2020s

    By: Simon Pirani

    Over the last decade, China has replaced Russia as the main export destination for Central Asian gas. Due to strong gas demand in China, in the early 2020s, the Central Asia-China pipeline corridor will be used close to its 55 Bcm/year capacity. An expansion to 85 Bcm/year is possible, by construction of Line D from […]

  • Brazil upstream bid rounds – evolve to grow: Brazil to become a top 5 oil producer by 2030?

    By: Claudio Steuer

    Brazil just conducted two massive pre-salt bid rounds – one with areas holding over 10 billion boe of discovered reserves – and another with close to 40 billion P50 unrisked oil initially in place – in the most prolific and sought after exploration and production area of the last decade. The auctions attracted international attention […]

  • China’s Natural Gas Development Report – Reality Check

    By: Stephen O'Sullivan

    China recently released its Natural Gas Development Report for 2019, a document which sets outs its plans for the sector in the years ahead.  The past two years of stellar gas demand growth have framed a narrative, at least in western markets, that China’s future demand growth will remain in double-digit percentage rates and be […]

  • Four misconceptions about China’s oil demand in 2019

    By: Michal Meidan

    In 2019, markets were bracing for a slowdown in China’s oil product demand growth, but grappling to quantify it given the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade negotiations. At the same time, with the start of two new mega-refineries, markets were expecting strong crude demand, alongside a deluge of product output and exports. In this comment, […]

  • Sanctions, Shipping, and Oil Markets

    By: Adi Imsirovic , Michal Meidan

    In just over a week, the theoretical cost of taking a barrel of oil from the Gulf to Asia, in the cheapest possible way, rose by $6 per barrel. At a time when refinery margins are in single digits, this is a major blow to refinery profitability. The US administration’s decision to sanction two subsidiaries […]

  • China’s energy security at 70

    By: Michal Meidan

    As China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on 1 October 2019, it seems to have gone full circle back to its 1949 assessments of the US: “a greedy and violent nation, struggling to remain the wealthiest and strongest on earth”. For the first two decades of […]

  • Glimpses of China’s energy future

    By: Michal Meidan

    China’s largest oil and gas major, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), released its 2050 outlook in late August. This coincides with preliminary work currently being undertaken by domestic think tanks, state-owned enterprises, and ministries ahead of the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, which will run from 2021 to 2025). While the CNPC report is by no […]

  • Why China will keep importing Iranian crude, but volumes will remain limited

    By: Michal Meidan

    On 22 July, 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the US’s decision to impose sanctions on a Chinese trader, Zhuhai Zhenrong, and its chief executive for ‘knowingly purchasing or acquiring oil from Iran, contrary to US sanctions’. While the US State Department’s decision to designate a Chinese entity may be seen as a sign […]

  • US-China Trade Tensions: Here we go again

    By: Michal Meidan

    The brief reprieve in the US-China tariff tit-for-tat seems to be coming to an end following Donald Trump’s tweet on 1 August, threatening to impose 10 per cent tariffs on $300 billion-worth of Chinese imports effective 1 September 2019. The announcement led to a steep fall in oil prices, as markets fear that the escalating […]