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OIES_36

Authors: Anouk Honoré,

European Natural Gas Demand, Supply & Pricing, cycles, seasons and the impact of LNG price arbitrage

This book deals in detail with the most important European gas markets, encompassing 35 countries including Turkey. The rationale of this book stems from the fact that, while there is much material dealing with gas supply availability, there is very little research on European gas demand from publicly available source.

  • The timing and the shape of the gas demand growth recovery in Europe remain uncertain.
  • But despite the general pessimism, there is some potential for additional demand, driven mostly by the construction of new gas-fired power plants.
  • We expect natural gas demand to increase by 50 bcm (up to 635 bcm) or 0.6 percent per year on average by 2020, but with major differences between national markets, sectors of consumption and period of recovery.
  • European gas demand will be close to Take-or-Pay (TOP) levels of contracted pipeline gas in 2010, but the tightness should relax in 2011.
  • Contracted gas, including LNG, is sufficient to cover gas demand until 2014.
  • Europe will need to secure additional gas post 2015, a period of large uncertainty for world gas supply in general.

The book provides not simply an analysis but also a methodology for looking at the evolution of European gas demand and supply. This book extends the OIES Natural Gas Programme’s regional gas studies which have so far covered Asia and CIS countries and which, in the near future, will extend to the Middle East and North Africa.

Contents

Introduction

PART I TRENDS IN EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS DEMAND

Chapter 1: Characteristics of Natural Gas Consumption in Europe

Chapter 2: Factors Affecting Natural Gas Demand Growth

Chapter 3: Dynamics and Scenarios in the 2010s

PART II NATURAL GAS SUPPLY CHALLENGES

Chapter 4: Declining Indigenous Production: Volume and Flexibility Conundrum

Chapter 5: Projects and Additional Pipeline Imports in the 2010s

Chapter 6: Scenario for LNG Imports in the 2010s

PART III BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN EUROPE IN THE 2010s

Chapter 7: Scenarios on Supply and Demand Trends and Balances

Chapter 8: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for the European Gas Industry

Conclusions

Appendices