Outlook for gas in China
China’s gas demand has seen dramatic swings since 2020: A very strong 2021 was followed by a fall in 2022 and then a recovery in 2023. These swings were due to a combination of a volatile macroeconomic outlook, high prices, inconsistent policy signals and higher installations of both renewables and coal. This paper considers these elements and how they will impact China’s gas demand in the medium term. Was 2022 a blip in an otherwise strong growth trajectory for China’s gas demand or are we facing a structural shift in gas consumption? The paper assesses the outlook for gas demand in China through 2030, the main drivers of consumption as well as the potential supply sources before discussing the energy and geopolitical implications of China’s gas outlook.
