Outlook for gas in China
After a very strong 2021, gas demand in China fell in 2022. This was due to a combination of factors including weak economic activity and industrial demand as well as high global gas prices. The outlook for 2023 is increasingly mixed: with an economic recovery in the cards, higher gas demand is likely, but given ongoing volatility in global energy prices, will gas be a competitive fuel in China’s mix? This paper will assess the extent to which 2022 represents a blip in an otherwise strong growth trajectory for China’s gas demand, or whether we are facing a structural shift in gas consumption. The paper assesses the outlook for gas demand in China through 2030, the main drivers of consumption as well as the potential supply sources before discussing the energy and geopolitical implications of China’s gas outlook.