Oil Price Paths in 2018: The Interplay between OPEC, US Shale, and Supply Interruptions

This paper explores how the oil price path could evolve in 2018 based on forecast scenarios of the real oil price that rely on a structural model of the global oil market. Forecast scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but rather modelled projections of the various oil price risks in the year to come conditional on certain events that are known at the time of the forecast or some other hypothetical events. The paper examines the impact of four such events: OPEC output policy; the US shale supply response to a higher oil price; shifts in the demand for oil driven by fluctuations in the global business cycle; and unanticipated disruptions in oil production caused by geopolitical events.

By: Andreas Economou , Bassam Fattouh


Oil , Oil & Middle East Programme


Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • Thierry Bros on UK gas storage: ‘If there remains frictionless trade with the EU via the interconnectors following… https://t.co/G8hUCQzEZx

    March 19th

  • Policy Considerations Around India’s Upstream Reforms https://t.co/Y8Oy5LQJF2

    March 19th

  • In June 2017 we explained why aviation poses a problem to the EU ETS due to Gibraltar airport. If Spain shares cont… https://t.co/jjZbvMq7gg

    March 19th

Sign up for our Newsletter

Register your email address here and we will send you notification of new publications, comment, articles etc. automatically.