Turkey’s gas demand decline: reasons and consequences
Following the introduction of its Gas Market Law in 2001, gas demand in Turkey grew rapidly during the 2000s, tripling to almost 50bcm by 2014. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically (even declining in 2016) as the government has come to regard its import dependence (imported gas accounts for 98 per cent of total gas demand) as a security risk. As a result, the country’s new energy focus has been on the development of renewables and the use of domestically produced coal, as well as the development of a nuclear programme, have changed the outlook for the energy balance. Previous positive forecasts for further gas demand growth now seem overly optimistic, and this paper by Gulmira Ryazeva takes a more sober and realistic look at the potential, suggesting that a BOTAŞ forecast of demand reaching 81bcm by 2030 could now be missed by 25 per cent. The paper provides a detailed sectoral breakdown of gas demand, and suggests that while consumption in the industrial and residential sectors may show some growth, gas use in the power sector is set to fall significantly.