Short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG
In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, the short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG. Imports into Europe surged from late 2018 as supply increased and Asian demand growth stalled. The oversupply looks set to continue through to early 2021 before the market tightens again as export capacity growth slows. However, the recent FIDs on new export projects – five this year with likely more to come in early 2020 – suggests a significant oversupply in the mid-2020s, despite continuing demand growth in Asian markets especially in China. The start-up of the Power of Siberia pipeline from Russia into Northern China will take some of the edge off potential LNG import growth. Longer-term under a Partial Transition scenario, total global gas demand could level off at some 5.4 tcm in the 2040s compared to just under 4 tcm currently. Also discussed is a Rapid Decarbonisation scenario, which includes, at least in some countries, a big role for gas producing hydrogen where CCS can be used.