Russia-Poland gas relationship: risks and uncertainties of the ever after

Growing gas demand, stagnant/declining indigenous supply, the expiration of Gazprom’s long-term transit contract on 17 May 2020 and the approaching end of the long-term gas import contract with Russia in 2022, along with a planned switch to alternative deliveries of LNG and Norwegian pipeline gas, are creating multiple challenges for Polish energy decision-makers. An important chapter in the history of Polish gas is coming to an end and a new era is beginning. This Insight discusses the evolution of the Russia-Poland gas relationship, identifies the problems that have emerged, and assesses the opportunities and the risks for both sides stemming from the end of the long-term transit and supply contracts. The Insight also examines how new Russian pipelines and the changes in flows of Russian gas to Europe are likely to impact the transit of Russian gas via Poland and what this means for Poland’s energy security.

By: Vitaly Yermakov , Kamil Sobczak