Oxford Energy Podcast – The Russian invasion of Ukraine – implications for the European gas market

In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about their latest research on the possible impact of an interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe. After a quick update on current gas prices Jack Sharples reviews the current state of gas supply to Europe, looking at flows in 2021 and then taking a more detailed look at daily supply over the past 4-5 months. He then assesses the different routes for Russian exports, considers why they declined in January and early February and then looks at LNG flows and indigenous European production. Mike Fulwood then presents a number of scenarios which consider the possibility of a curtailment or cessation of Russian gas exports to Europe. He discusses the implications for the European gas balance, possible mitigation measures and the likely impact on gas prices. He also reviews the plans put forward by the IEA and the EU to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.