Oxford Energy Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review: The impact of conflict in Ukraine on the European gas market
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Katja Yafimava the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review that takes an in-depth look at the impact on the European gas market of recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian build-up of troops close to the Ukrainian border as well as the regular short-term gas market analysis. The podcast discusses the level of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies and the relative lack of alternatives beyond quicker storage withdrawals and efforts to attract more cargoes from the global LNG market (due to declining European gas production and the fact that pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan have already seemingly reached peak levels). While the discussion considers that it is unlikely that either European sanctions would prevent the purchase of Russian gas or that the Russian government would order a partial or complete curtailment of pipeline gas supplies to Europe in breach of long-term contracts; the outbreak of military conflict would almost certainly result in an immediate spike in European prices due to uncertainty over the pace and extent of the escalation of hostilities. The podcast also discusses the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and asks if the gas could start flowing in 2022, or whether the Ukraine situation could delay approvals further or even lead to its cancellation.