Oil Relations and the Balance of Power between the Big-3 Oil Producers: Transformations and impacts
This paper analyses the oil market dynamics from the lens of the output and investment policies of the largest three global oil producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States, and their evolving relations. The behaviors, strategies, and the relations between these three big producers have changed over the years and have been shaped by key events and shocks impacting the oil market such as the rise of US shale and the COVID-shock. The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 represents yet another milestone in the evolution of these oil relations and the position of the three big producers in the global energy scene, with long-term implications on the dynamics of oil markets. These changes are occurring against a more complex energy scene where governments are pursuing policies to achieve the key objectives of sustainability, security, and affordability which will impact the future role of oil in the energy mix.