OIES Podcast – The outlook for fossil fuels in China’s energy transition and its geopolitical implications

In this latest podcast from the OIES China programme, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan discuss the future of fossil fuel demand in China, what this means for the country’s import requirements and the geopolitical implications of these trends.

China is currently the world’s largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the largest LNG buyer. In this podcast, Michal and Anders discuss how long China’s reliance on imported oil and gas will continue as well as some of the drivers that inform different scenarios. While there are different outlooks for peak demand and for the speed with which oil and gas use in China declines, most scenarios still expect China to remain the world’s largest oil and gas importer for at least a decade. At the same time, the number of oil and gas suppliers is set to shrink, limiting China’s ability to diversify its imports. These growing interdependencies with the Middle East, Russia and the US are all set against different geopolitical contexts, raising questions about how China will manage its energy ties with its main suppliers as well as with emerging consumers. Anders and Michal discuss China’s views of energy security and the extent to which access to resources is driving China’s foreign policy and commercial strategies.