OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 16 – Gas Markets
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson interviews Mike Fulwood on the scenarios for a cut off of Russian gas flows to Europe this winter. They discuss a base Control Case scenario which envisage a continuation of flows and compare it with a No Russian Flows Case, looking at the impact ono the EU as a whole but also on the most affected countries in Central and Eastern Europe. They discuss the case study of Germany and the potential issues for gas in the power and industrial sectors as well as neighbouring countries in the region. Broadening the discussion they then review current LNG flows and the outlook for the winter not only in Europe but also in Asia, where cold weather or a rebounding Chinese economy could create additional competition for LNG. The conversation then moves on to the UK and the potential for issues with imports and exports of gas and electricity over the winter months before concluding with an analysis of supply and demand trends for 2023 plus a medium term outlook on the potential rebalancing of the global gas market later in the decade.